U.S. Senate See Full Big Line

(D) J. Hickenlooper*

(R) Somebody

80%

20%

Governor See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse

(D) Phil Weiser

(D) Jena Griswold

60%

60%

40%↓

Att. General See Full Big Line

(D) M. Dougherty

(D) Alexis King

(D) Brian Mason

40%

40%

30%

Sec. of State See Full Big Line

(D) George Stern

(D) A. Gonzalez

(R) Sheri Davis

40%

40%

30%

State Treasurer See Full Big Line

(D) Brianna Titone

(R) Kevin Grantham

(D) Jerry DiTullio

60%

30%

20%

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

(R) Somebody

90%

2%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

(R) Somebody

90%

2%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Hurd*

(D) Somebody

80%

40%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert*

(D) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Crank*

(D) Somebody

80%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) B. Pettersen*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(R) Gabe Evans*

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(D) Joe Salazar

50%

40%

40%

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
September 08, 2013 09:29 AM UTC

Sunday Ground Game: Giron In Front, Morse a Horse Race

  • 23 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

playchart

What Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz calls "the worst election you've never heard of" is now only a few days away. Early voting is well underway in both Senate District 3 (Pueblo) and Senate District 11 (Colorado Springs). Although the ads are still blaring, most attention has now turned to the field campaigns underway to actually turn out voters. And that's where the fight will be won or lost in both cases.

We are hearing more and more cautious optimism from Democrats as Election Day nears. In Pueblo, all news reports show Democrats still way out ahead in terms of ballots returned, though Republicans in this heavily Democratic district are likely to have a high turnout. Although you can't be certain of a 1:1 Democrat/recall "no" vote ratio, especially in fractious Pueblo, organizers on the ground seem confident they will not just win for Sen. Angela Giron, but run up the score a little to shore her up for the 2014 general election. The reason they're not already celebratory, they say, is they don't want to encourage any kind of complacency–and that makes very good sense.

In Senate District 11, the extremely expensive and contentious fight between Senate President John Morse and ex-Springs councilman Bernie Herpin is virtually certain to be a closer race than Giron's–perhaps very close. Both sides have worked very hard to personalize this high-profile race, and Morse's campaign believes they have done what they needed to drive up Herpin's negatives. Overall, the candidates personally have mattered more to this race than in Pueblo.

The biggest factor now, though, is the high degree of professional organization in both sides' field operations. That reflects the high stakes of this one recall, compared to the two that have already failed and in Pueblo where it's increasingly likely the GOP will lose. This is the race where Republicans have basically placed all their chips, pouring massive nationwide resources into this tiny state Senate district and obliging Democrats to do the same. The national proxy battle that the Senate District 11 recall represents at this point cannot be overstated.

To Democrats' credit, we can tell you the very best and most experienced field operatives in Colorado are working the canvassing operation in Senate District 11. These are the same people who oversaw and participated in the groundbreaking Democratic field campaigns of 2004-2012, one of the major reasons why Colorado is considered a blue state today. On the other side, don't let the diversionary incompetence of recall spokesperson Jennifer "CAPartyGirl" Kerns fool you–there are smart people working to turn out the vote for the GOP, too.

Rather than a poll, use this space to tell us long form what you think will happen Tuesday and why.

Tweet
Share

Comments

23 thoughts on “Sunday Ground Game: Giron In Front, Morse a Horse Race”

  1. I think Morse will win. For the same reason that the recalls mostly failed in Wisconsin, even some who don't support Morse disagree with using a recall as a response to votes people didn't like. So Morse gets his supporters plus conservatives who want to wait for the election next year.

    1. Early voting doesn't look good for Morse. There's still a chance and it would be very nice to run the board with defeats for all 4 recall attempts instead of just 3 out of 4.  As for the example of Wisconsin, while the Governor's statewide recall failed, there were two successful recalls of Republican state legislators. The comparison to make would be with their district, not statewide, recalls.

      I lean toward defeat for Morse. Hope to be wrong. 

      1. Republicans tend to do better than democrats at early voting. I believe many democrats will come out monday and tuesday to vote no on the recall. Although the republicans are beating democrats in early voting, that does not necessarily mean that every republican is voting yes on the recall. There are some sane republicans who will vote no on the recall despite what might some say. I think Giron is going to win her recall easily.

  2. I think this is pretty close ro accurate, and I think Morse will prevail because:

    1. Herpin is a douche

    2. Even a lot of Republicans think this recall is craziness.

    1. As to your # 2. I'm inclined to think that most Rs who aren't on board with the idea of recall simply won't vote. I have a feeling that only those with strong motivation to either support or defeat Morse will turn out and many indies and Rs (and Ds too, for that matter) who don't like recall but aren't crazy about Morse will stay home.  But I hope those of you who are a little more optimistic than I am are right. GOTV will be a huge factor. yes

      1. You might be right, but if you believe the polls that say 80%+ support universal background checks (which I do), that would have to translate into at least some Republicans voting no on this recall. Gun nuts can make a lot of noise but they're not a majority.

    2. That's not accurate based on the numbers coming in, or the interviews with voters. Republicans are eager to recall Morse overall, and not just because of guns. Giron may squeak (that's a victory in a Dem district) but Morse is a goner.

      3. Morse isn't a goner dude.  He is a human being who followed his calling into public service first in emergency medicine then as a law enforcement officer then as a public servant.  Whatever the outcome, he has served his community and his constituents to the best of his abilities.  If he wins this recall election then he serves out his two terms with legislation passed that he believes in and is proud of like sensible gun regulations.  If he doesn't then he does something else with his life and serves his community in a different capacity.  People like you don't get that do you?  It's all about hating and hurting other people.  What a punk.

  3. Pueblo: No on recall 65%. Yes on recall 35%. Successor candidates: Rivera 90%.  Anglund or other write in 10%.

    El Paso: No on recall 51%. Yes on recall 49%. Successor candidates: Herpin 85%, write in Libertarian Brooks or other 15%.

    Why: Latest pdf of registered voters in Morse's district: 23K Democrats, 18K Republicans, 700 Libertarians, 26K unaffiliated, Constitution 78, Green ~300 out of total 70K registered "active" voters, plus 14K "inactive" voters.

    So if Dems, half of unaffiliated, plus most Greens vote against the recall, that is 37/70 or almost 53%. Same pattern on "inactive" except probably a third will be truly inactive, having moved or not voting.

    I've seen the ground turn out from the inside for the last few months, and I can tell you that the pro Morse and Giron have a vastly superior ground game. Recall forces spend money on signage and TV ads. Their paid staff and canvassers are incompetent and haphazard. They buy robocalls and web ads, which people tune out.

    Then there are the obvious voter suppression efforts (floating fake candidates to derail mail in ballot, endless stupid litigation, hysteria over mythical gypsy voters). We'll see what we saw in 2012….voters showing up to vote, staying in line, just to spite the forces who say that their votes don't matter.

    Also working for the scenario above are factors others have mentioned: the general weariness of the cost and hoopla of the recall effort, resentment of manipulation when Morse is term limited and Giron is up for re-election in 2014.

  4. military again gun control, you are misinformed. The majority of democrats support these gun control measures. This is about d vs. r. 2000 democrats signed your useless recall petition. This is out of 39,000 registered democrats in Pueblo and 24,000 registered democrats in Morse's district. A very small amount of democrats signed the useless recall petitions you gun nut.

  5. I think Morse is going to lose this one.  He only won the district by what, three or four hundred votes in 2010, and that with a Libertarian candidate that grabbed some 1,400 from Owen Hill.  With the 'pubs fired up about not being able to play Killing Fields with their home arsenal, I think there's a good chance they'll over-represent at the polls and take Morse out.  Lot of work for one year left in his term, though…

    I also don't think this is going to send the message of fear that the wingnuts would like to legisltors that pass reasoned gun control laws.  With two recall failures at the petition level and another in the vote, the message will be about the guy in a district he shouldn't have won in the first place being taken out by partisan rage.

  7. CU is back and it looks like the Broncos might be golden, after all.  I predict a losing season for CU, but barely and more really exciting games.  As for the Broncos…if the weather holds and does not  go below 20 degrees, I think the Broncos might really pull off another Super Bowl.  But I have been wrong before.

  8. You can thank Jon Caldera for fucking up the Colorado Republicans for years to come and watch for indictments for voter fraud and Independence Institute finally shut down, due to lack of brains.

     

     

  9. In that I have first person knowledge of the ground game and campaign in SD-11 so here are the issues. The narratives are wedge issues cutting both ways, though internals seem to point that a reverse wedge combo of expensive special election, that is not necessary or reaches the the threshold of a recall, that the gun legislation once explained to Republican and U voters has a 80% favorable. Their wedge issue is that there are gun enthusiasts on the D side. Now turnout is running about 14% now and we can't expect more than 22%. The question then is who is turning out. What appears evident is that the Rep/Recall vote came out strong day one and slipped day two and by day three most who voted appear to be No/Morse supporters as the number who voted lined up strong with the campaign supporter DB. The other wild card is that the in the house vote is under reported in that they haven't processed or recorded absentee/mail in votes since the Clerk does not have staff to verify signatures to attest ballots.

    Some knowledgable staffers are confident about the outcome. BTW tomorrow they have lined up a big number of voters getting rides to polls or emergency absentee ballot applications and the canvassers and phoners are ID'ing these.

    I am as confident of the outcome as I was the final weekend of the Presidential election in 08 and 12 in CO. All signs are pointing to a successful campaign.

  10. Thanks rwnemanich. I feel better now. I had a cold and no voice this weekend so I couldn't help out from Denver. I hope this whole expensive effort blows up in the faces of the tantrum-throwing gun-nuts and deters similar attempts in future. The Icing on the cake will be if Caldara actually spends a few days in a very sparsely furnished room as a guest of the El Paso County. 

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Yadira Caraveo
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

66 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!