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February 05, 2014 10:32 AM UTC

Hickenlooper's Numbers Rebounding, Says New Q-Poll

  • 41 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

hickandoppo

Welcome news for Democrats today in Quinnipiac University's latest polling of the Colorado gubernatorial race:

Colorado voters approve 52 – 39 percent of the job Gov. John Hickenlooper is doing and give him comfortable leads over possible Republican challengers, but are divided 45 – 45 percent on whether he deserves reelection this November, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. 

This is the first registered voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University in which Gov. Hickenlooper's approval rating tops 50 percent. There is a wide gender gap as women approve 60 – 29 percent while among men 44 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove. Approval is 84 – 6 percent among Democrats, but Republicans disapprove 63 – 28 percent. Independent voters are divided as 45 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove…

"His team may have tanked in the Super Bowl, but Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper gets a bit of good news in improving approval job numbers as no serious challenge to his reelection has been mounted yet," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 

"Voters are divided on whether they want to give Gov. Hickenlooper four more years, but they aren't rallying around any potential challengers. They give the gov a 47 – 37 percent favorability while former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo gets a negative 25 – 31 percent favorability."

Gov. John Hickenlooper's re-elect number in this latest poll, split 45% each way, shows there is still lots of work to be done between now and the next election shoring up his standing among the full electorate. With that said, Hickenlooper's overall approval back over 50%, combined with the lack of a credible opponent, is an encouraging development for his campaign. In November, a plurality said Hickenlooper did not deserve re-election by 49-42%, so clearly his approval is on the rebound. And crucially, Hickenlooper beats every potential Republican opponent by at least 6 points in a poll with a margin of plus or minus 2.9%–meaning he is outside the margin of error against them all.

Looking deeper, poll respondents appear upset with Hickenlooper's handling of "gun policy," but only 10% of residents polled felt guns with the most important issue in the upcoming gubernatorial election. In line with previous polls, 52% of voters oppose "stricter gun control laws in Colorado"–but again displaying what can best be described as misinformation-induced cognitive dissonance, an overwhelming 86% of those same voters support the new universal background check law for gun purchases. Respondents support the limit of magazine capacity by a smaller margin, 50% to 47%–though that margin has actually grown over the previous poll.

Bottom line: Hickenlooper's trajectory in this poll compared to Quinnipiac's previous polling is looking good–and at the same time, the weakness of the entire field his potential challengers is becoming glaringly evident.

Comments

41 thoughts on “Hickenlooper’s Numbers Rebounding, Says New Q-Poll

        1. How many of those Independents were Tancredo ACS voters last time around, or Republicans who don't want to admit to being Republicans?

          Given Q-poll's final weighting with a Hickenlooper win, I'm guessing they found an outsized imbalance. The number doesn't scare me, nor should it scare the Governlooper.

    1. Hick is beating every GOP challenger. A very good sign. He's also doing much better with women voters than the GOP are. No surprise there as the GOP continue their war on women. This is another good sign. Bringing up independents when ignoring that Hick is beating every right winger makes you look desperate.

    1. The women and people of color who get anywhere in GOTP politics these days have to be that much more extreme to please the base and they don't attract more votes from women or Hispanics just because they have vaginas or Hispanic last names.  

      1. The Republicans need to glean about 5% voters on the margins, and these are not only low-info but also identity voters who consider gender and ethnicity … and yes, surnames.  Ask anyone from southern Colorado … it matters! 

  1. Comparing Hicks numbers in November to this release, Hick is losing support among Independents.  Only reason he is ahead is Republicans still are figuring out who their candidate will be.  If it is not Tancredo, things are looking good.  If Hick is relying on  Dem turnout, I don't see that happening.

    1. According to the latest numbers, it looks like 17% of Republicans would be voting for Hickenlooper today if the Republican candidate is Tancredo. That's 7% higher than for any of the other Republican candidate going up against Hicklenlooper.

    1. What's really stunning about the Colorado Peaks post is that they flat out lied about the data from the Q poll.

      Here's the actual Q data on Hick vs whatever R:

      Hickenlooper tops possible Republican challengers:

      • 48 – 39 percent over former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo;
      • 46 – 40 percent over Secretary of State Scott Gessler;
      • 47 – 37 percent over State Sen. Greg Brophy;
      • 47 – 38 percent over State Sen. Mike Kopp.

      Here's what Colorado Peak Politics put up:

      Hick vs. Tancredo (37-46)

      Hick vs. Gessler (40-42)

      Hick vs. Brophy (37-40)

      Hick vs. Kopp (38-42)

       

      See the difference? They have no shame.

       

      1. You beat me to it. Colorado peak politics is run by right wing extremists. They are spinning this poll how they see fit. Hick is beating all GOP challengers and that is what counts. The GOP has a very weak field and more than likely, the loser Tancredo is going to be the one that faces Hick and we know what a loser Tancredo is.

      2. CPP hate the truth. They bring up independents because they can't stand to mention that Hick is beating all of their GOP candidates. haha hICK is not losing independents by all that much. CPP live in their own little reality and they know deep down Hick is going to get another 4 years and it eats them up knowing that, so they will try to spin polls how they see fit.

      3. CPP mentions that Hick is losing independents, but says NOTHING about Hick beating every GOP challenger. CPP are a joke. The best the right can do is Tancredo. Tancredo was an extremist in 2010. He has changed. Who wants to bet Tancredo will be a two time loser come this November???

        1. Hick is not losing independents overwhelmingly. Hick will win the MAJORITY of dems and he will get some independent support and he's doing much better with womn voters than the GOP are. These facts make Hick's chances he will het another 4 years look pretty good.

        2. Then, if it's all determined by the indie vote, why does Hick still manage poll ahead of everyone head to head among all voters? Never mind. You know why. You're just trolling.

      1. Funny you should mention Romney – I answered a national phone poll last night and Romney was included several times as an option for 2016. In fact, Romney was mentioned I think one time more than the next most frequently asked-about candidate, Christie. Jeb got third place for number of mentions in questions.

    2. That's a standard Peak line whenever these polls come out: "Hick may be up, but he's losing independents!"

      No one is paying attention to your parroted comments.

  2. The only interesting thing about the governor's race is whether the GOP will still qualify as a major party in Colorado.  They barely squeaked in with the 2010 election.

  3. Found this at a site called Independent Political Report:

    The Constitution Party posted this very preliminary list of candidates for 2014 on itsFacebook page:

    James R. Fariello, Adams County Sheriff, American Constitution Party, Colorado.
    Joshua Screws, HD 31, Constitution Party of Alabama
    Derrick Douglas, HD 91, Constitution Party of Alabama
    Jennifer Young, Secretary of State, Wyoming Constitution Party
    David Lory Vanderbeek, Governor, Nevada Independent American Party
    Dean Barton, Constitution Party of Minnesota
    Tim Utz, Constitution Party of Minnesota
    Phil Hudok, United States Senate, Constitution Party of West Virginia
    Lori Stacey, US House, Constitution Party of South Dakota
    Curtis Strong, Governor of South Dakota, Constitution Party of South Dakota
    J.R. Myers, Governor of Alaska, Constitution Party of Alaska

    The list is noteworthy because it lists the Nevada Independent American Party, and not the Constitution Party of Nevada that was recognized last month by the State of Nevada.

     

     

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