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July 15, 2014 08:52 AM UTC

New NBC/Marist Poll: Udall Up By 7, Hickenlooper Up By 6

  • 32 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.

A new poll out today from NBC News/Marist has very bad news for Colorado Republicans–beginning with GOP Senate candidate Cory Gardner, who is now down by 7 points to incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, outside this poll's +/- 3.1% margin of error:

In Colorado’s Senate contest, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., leads GOP challenger Cory Gardner by seven points among registered voters, 48 to 41 percent; another 10 percent are undecided.

In the state’s race for governor, sitting Gov. John Hickenlooper holds a six-point edge over Republican opponent Bob Beauprez, 49 to 43 percent, with 7 percent undecided…

A gender gap is helping the Democratic candidates…In Colorado, Udall is up by 12 points among female voters (50 percent to 38 percent), but he’s running neck and neck with Gardner among men…

Among Latinos – who make up 16 percent of registered voters in the Colorado poll – Udall has a 31-point lead over Gardner, 58 to 27 percent.

And also in Colorado, both Udall (by 50 to 34 percent) and Hickenlooper (by 52 to 35 percent) have the advantage with independent voters.

Here are the details on today's poll of Colorado voters.

The leads for Udall and to a lesser extent Gov. John Hickenlooper among independent voters are particularly dire for Republicans, who are counting on an agitated independent vote breaking their way this November. Udall's massive 31-point lead over Gardner with Latino voters shows Gardner's late attempts to appease this community by changing up his hard-line rhetoric on immigration reform have fallen flat. Combine that with Udall's double-digit lead over Gardner with women voters, and Gardner looks much worse off at this point than most news reporting on this race would suggest.

Hickenlooper has more ground to gain against GOP opponent Bob Beauprez, and that's likely to happen once Beauprez's long record of disqualifying looney-tunes statements since his last run for office in 2006 becomes more widely publicized. Hickenlooper's pundit-certified "tough couple of years politically" colors the narrative about this race, but even here there is good news: 52% of respondents say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who thinks laws governing gun sales should be more strict.

Opposition to the loosening of gun regulations is largely fueled by female voters, who say they are less likely to support a pro-gun rights candidate by 20 percentage points, while men are about equally divided on the question.

Meaning the biggest advantage Colorado Republicans have going into this election…is no advantage at all.

Bottom line: while nobody would suggest these hotly competitive races are over, a few more polls like this could change that. These are not numbers Republicans hoping for victory this November want to see.

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32 thoughts on “New NBC/Marist Poll: Udall Up By 7, Hickenlooper Up By 6”

  1. The Republican Crazy let loose by the Koch Brothers, Fox News, Karl Rove, et. al, just cannot be turned off at the whim of the Republican Establishment.

    "There are parts of this country where if Laura Ingraham, and Ann Coulter, and Mark Levin are on the radio supporting you, that's worth a lot," Fox's Brit Hume noted. "In the right place, with the right constituency, those people hold real power."

    Real power, indeed.

    For years, that power was mostly directed at Democrats, and specifically at President Obama as talk radio and the larger right-wing media Noise Machine has worked tirelessly to demonize its opponents via nasty and often dishonest, illogical attacks.

    After John McCain's dispiriting loss to Barack Obama in 2008, damaged leaders of the Republican establishment slowly shuffled off the national stage. And into that vacuum rushed Roger Ailes, Glenn Beck, Rush-I-Hope-He-Fails-Limbaugh, and other players from the right-wing media lineup. They took over the messaging for the Republican Party, the attacks on the new president, and helped power the surging Tea Party movement in America.

    The vicous attacks were almost all directed at Barack Hussein Obama and Republican leaders were happy they didn't have to dirty their hands in the effort. They could focus entirely on obstructin the new president. 

    But then the beast turned on them. 

    Laura Ingraham began hyping the candidate's claims on her nationally syndicated radio show, as she vilified Republicans for even thinking about addressing the issue of immigration reform.

    "Vote Brat and stop amnesty once for all," read a blog post on Ingraham's site. She also blamed Eric Cantor for the "enticement" of the immigrant children into the country, which she described as "an invasion facilitated by our own government." And while appearing at a Brat rally last week, the talker suggested Obama should have traded Cantor to the Taliban in exchange for American prisoner of war Bowe Bergdahl.

    So yes, Cantor pretty much got the Obama treatment from Ingraham and other influential segments of the far-right press: Misinformation wrapped around overheated personal attacks with constant attempts to demonize.

    But this is what happens when Republicans help build an irresponsible Noise Machine that's designed to offend and designed to attack. What happens is that, in case of emergency, there is no 'off' switch.

  3. This is great news.  Its a long way to November, and Cory and Bob are both in the strike zone !

    You're welcome Moddy and AC

    P.S. – fracking is safe

    1. I'm sure there's a reason Marist didn't poll the Gessler write-in campaign.  These libs couldn't handle that bad news . . . 

      Gessler 2014 (and beyond) !!!

  5. Coincidence that this very sizable uptick for Udall follows his recent pro-choice, pro-freedom, pro-government getting out of our reproductive choices ad campaign? I think not. Yes, it's just one poll but it's a respectable one and it's a big change from the dead heat numbers where the race has been stuck. I always thought that would change as the ad campaigns kicked into gear and here's evidence that's the case. 

    So much for the rightie mantra that women don't care all that much about this stuff. I agree he should highlight more than just this in his ads going forward. He should also stress his early and persistent objections to government over-reach in invading citizens' privacy and a few other important stands he's been sticking with, not all of which endear him to the Obama administration.  

    Apparently his team's strategy in opening up a lead quickly on this one issue has been a sound one. Now I think he can improve his lead by branching out to a few other winning stands in ads to come.

    1. I'm not going to get two excited until I see another poll from the same polling house–either Ras or Marist.  I don't like trying to identify trends using different polls.

        1. One more time, Ras is entirely different than it was then. They now consistently give Obama better approval ratings than anyone else, though lately they've been closer to the other polls. I follow the polls at realclear and other aggregating sites and, for a while there, Ras was even giving Obama a slightly positive rating when no other poll had him close to positive. 

          Time for everyone to drop old notions about Ras. It's not run by the same folks anymore. Which is not to say it's now more accurate, just not inaccurate in the way it was in 2010. 

      2. The old stalemate was reflected in averages of various polls, all of them within close range of one another, over time. I agree one poll by itself must be viewed with caveats but it's different enough in comparison to the previous poll consensus to show promise of having real meaning and it follows the Udall pro-choice ad campaign which could very well be highly effective in a state in which personhood has been defeated by both huge and increasing majorities.

        I predict that it does have real meaning and that the shift will be born out in a variety of future polls. We'll see. Always wise not to get too excited without more to go on, though.

          1. No, I just like reading polls and comparing their assumptions to the assumptions used in other polls before coming to any conclusions.

  7. Well I never!  The day when a two-faced, lying hypocrite like Cory Gardner can't run away with the voter's approval is a sad day indeed for the Oligarchy!

    We'll just have to change the law so that Koch Industries can register to vote a few million times.  That'll right this terrible injustice!

      2. Nah. It's just business . . . Business 101, in fact . . . don't throw good money after bad.

        Gardner may think he's indispensable, but the Kochs consider him (and anyone else, for that matter) disposable as well as expendable. When Cory takes his choker, there's always going to be plenty of opportunities for new acquisitions

  8. My goodness. If these are even close to right, the fat lady is already (!) warming up. It's one thing to be up seven — that's not super huge — but to be up seven and at 48 or 49? That's almost game over. Gardner and Beauprez better hope NBC has a bad sample. Let's see if either has internals to counter it.

  9. Gardner's Campaign is Collapsing – Lack of Credibility is the Reason

    Mr. Gardner is finding out that running statewide on positions he took for years in a very conservative area so he could avoid a primary are coming back to bite him. The only difference between Gardner on the one hand and the other Republicans who were in the senate race until March 1st, on the other, is the fact Gardner is more presentable and smoother on the surface but underneath he is just as whacko as they are. In fact, his smoothness was an unforseen negative for Mr. Gardner. By being smooth, most people had expectations of a reasonable moderate individual, but when the turth hit the air waves and they saw he is just the next Republican right-wing fanatic, he looked less likable and more like someone trying to fool them than the other Republican senate candidates.

    Recently I was asked why Gardner's opponents continue to attack him on women's issues. My reply: "Because it's working." The NBC poll verifies that statement. Just think about it. Mr. Gardner announced March 1st. He was virtually unknown in Colorado outside the 4th CD. Three weeks later (he'd probably completed a poll by then), he throws the Personhood Amendment 'under the bus' and because of that, he has spent the last four months talking about nothing else, especially since he remains a co-sponsor of the federal Personhood Amendment. He committed one of the greatest strategic blunders a candidate ever can – he made himself the issue – and even worse, he made his credibility the issue. Once a candidate's credibility is gone, it's just a matter of having the election because the outcome is a foregone conslucion. It is true that in politics almost anything can happen but as things stand today, Mr. Gardner is headed for defeat.

    1. Are you insinuating that Cory has lost some credibility because of his flip flopping on personhood?  Don't you understand that this was a genuine, sincere re-examination of his previously mistaken beliefs which simply coincided with his declaration of a statewide run.

       

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