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September 08, 2014 11:01 AM UTC

New Marist, Rasmussen Polls Show Enduring Udall Lead

  • 32 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Another poll this weekend from CBS/New York Times: Mark Udall 46%, Cory Gardner 43%.

—–

Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.

Noting two polls that came out over the weekend in the Colorado U.S. Senate race, the first polls in several weeks. First, from Marist College Institute for Public Opinion for NBC News, showing incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall up six points over GOP challenger Cory Gardner:

In the contest for U.S. Senate in Colorado, Democratic incumbent Mark Udall leads his Republican challenger, Cory Gardner, by six points among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Udall’s advantage is due to his support among Latinos, independents, women, and young voters…

“Right now, Udall is disrupting GOP plans to add Colorado to its victory column as they seek a Senate majority,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “To seal the deal, Udall needs to mobilize young voters and Latinos who boosted Barack Obama in his presidential wins.”

…A plurality of Colorado likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 48%, supports Udall in the race for U.S. Senate in Colorado.  Gardner garners 42%.  Nine percent are undecided. Udall is bolstered by Latinos likely to participate.  He receives 60% compared with 27% for Gardner. 91% of Democrats likely to vote are for Udall while 87% of Republicans favor Gardner.  Among likely independent voters, Udall has 49% to 34% for Gardner. Udall is strongest among single women where he outpaces Gardner by 29 points, 56% to 27%.  Udall has a 16 point lead among single men. Udall and Gardner are competitive among married women, 46% to 45%.  Gardner has a strong lead against Udall among married men, 55% to 36%.

Here's the full memo on the Marist poll. It's worth noting that Marist showed Udall with a bigger lead in the last round of polling back in July–we'll want to see more polls to know if this is an outlier, or a sign that Udall is starting to pull away. Another poll from historically conservative Rasmussen Reports out Friday has Udall with a much smaller two-point lead over Gardner, 44% to 42%–still ahead after millions in negative advertising dollars expended, but remaining a tight race (and frankly closer to our gut feeling). In the gubernatorial race, Marist has incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper leading GOP challenger Bob Beauprez 43% to 39%, while Rasmussen has the race in a dead heat–with Beauprez up 45% to Hickenlooper's 44%.

After a curious dearth of polling during the month of August, we expect a flurry of results in the coming days to give us a clearer picture of where these two races are headed.

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32 thoughts on “New Marist, Rasmussen Polls Show Enduring Udall Lead”

  1. Yes, but according to our resident librarian, if you take the text of the poll and look at it kinda sideways holding it at arms length and squint it looks like Cory Gardner in a landslide.

    So there.

    1. Rasmussen is no longer the clearly right leaning poll it was. It's all over the place.  In fact, it now and for many months has consistently shown lower disapproval ratings for Obama than any other polls.  What's encouraging to me is the upward trajectory in recent polling ranging from one or two point leads for Udall to the Marist 6 but with no recent polling showing any lead for Gardner. As more tune in and Gardner becomes more than just the generic Republican option, I think we'll see Udall's lead solidifying further.

    2. As for Hick, I think this Rasmussen pol is just another example of how all over the place they are lately on different races. It's just a one point lead and the polling has been close. I still think, when push comes to shove, Dems and most Dem leaning indies are going to vote for Hick, even if with little real enthusiasm, because of very strong enthusiasm for stopping nut case BWB. I predict small but consistent leads in poll averages as election day approaches with a win for Hick. We don't elect tinfoil hat Guvs.

        1. fe

          rack friendly may curb liberal enthusiasm both both ways bob is wiorth.   I think its time clobber bwbfor trying to eliminate backgrounds checks on guns and wanting 100 round magazines for serials.  gop primary is over, that is poison with moderate women

           

           

           

           

          1. I think capital punishment will hurt Hick more than anything else. Frackers will stay with Hick. Most of us will stay with Hick even though unhappy re fracking. Hick might only win by 8-10

          2. Plenty of time for clobbering and I'm sure  ads from supporters will while Hick sticks to usual sunny ads.Supporting ads should also stress all the tinfoil hat stuff. Wacko quotes abound and our middle isn't fond of that kind of thing.

  6. I hate to say it but I don't think Udall is even close to being out of the woods and beating Cory the Con Artist.  My observations both in GJ and Denver is that Udall's campaign is a top down urban media centric campaign.  I frankly felt sorry for the poor college students (one I met is from Missouri and had never set foot in Colorado until last month) who kept trying to accomodate local supporters.  Retail politics  – not sure what's going on there inso far as door to door but I did ask for a yard sign only to be told they probably weren't going to have any (not cost effective is what I was told).    The afternoon and evening left me desparing over Udall's campaign.  Hopefully the polls are right and I'm just "running scared" on Udall's chances.

     

     

    2. Don't worry about JG. It's not voting Dem anyway. Can't believe there won't be yard signs though. I do know yard signs aren't encouraged this early. They get to be like wallpaper by election time. Here in Littleon the Dem organizers like to get lots of signs out at once (Bam. One day you drive to work and suddenly they're everywhere) and much closer to election time so they have the most impact. Sometimes those college kid imports don't know what they're talking about. Never heard of a Senatorial election without yard signs ever becoming available. Money shouldn't be  such problem for a nationally hyped camapaign that they can't afford signs. That's silly.

    3. I don't think that's an unreasonable concern; if anything it's living in reality. This site has a tendency to paint an overly-optimistic picture of what's going on.

      Even though I've lived in the Front Range for the entire time I've lived in this state, I know full well that there is more to Colorado politics than what happens in the Denver-Boulder area.

      For the record, I'm supporting Udall. I think he still has a chance to win, provided that he doesn't take anything for granted–it's not over until the polls have closed on Election Day–or let his campaign devolve into an echo chamber..

        1. Udall, and Democrats in general, need to be careful not to overplay their hand, as the current DNC chair has done at times with abortion and the "war on woman" meme.

          I'm a registered Democrat and strongly favor keeping abortion legal but I also know that Udall is going to need more than just the registered D's to win. Furthermore,  pro-lifers aren't going to vote for Udall (for obvious reasons), however, abortion isn't the defining issue for everyone, including those who believe it should remain a legal (and safe) medical procedure.  

           

          1. Agree there. Udall and Romanoff both need to also stress that it isn't a choice between one side being good on those issues or the other if the economy is your primary concern. Republican trickle down economics is a total failure and they should send the message that with them (Udall and Romanoff) you get sensible policy on abortion, birth control, and solid economics.

    1. I thought that Honey Badger was the only one that had any chance of beating Hick (which is why he's going to run away with it at the Primary you just wait and see Scott Gessler is going…all…the…WAY!!!). 

    3. moderatus, you right wing nut, The nbc marist poll has Hickenlooper beating Beauprez by 4. No sane person thinks Beauprez, a proven statewide LOSER who lost by 17 points to a demcorat in 2006 has a chance again Hickenlooper. get your tissues ready for the shellackings Gardner and Beauprez will receive in 2 months.

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