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October 15, 2014 09:29 AM UTC

Q-Poll Tightens Governor's Race, CNN: Gardner 50%, Udall 46%

  • 22 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

beauprezdemsfear

Lots of polling out this morning on Colorado's two top races today, with more on the way–starting with Quinnipiac University's newest poll of the gubernatorial race. The Denver Post's Lynn Bartels reports:

A new poll from Quinnipiac University still shows Republican challenger Bob Beauprez in the lead, but Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper has closed the gap among women and independent voters and his favorability ratings have improved.

The poll, released early Wednesday, reveals Colorado voters favor Beauprez over Hickenlooper 46 percent to 42 percent, a change from last month when Quinnipiac tracked a 10-point lead for the Republican.

"After seeming to waver in our last survey, women and independent voters pull Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper back from the abyss and reinvigorate a race that's very close," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

Here is Quinnipiac's release on today's poll.

In truth, very few local observers took Quinnipiac's 10-point lead for Bob Beauprez seriously, and it's more likely their numbers are just tracking back to reality from previously outlier findings. We'll have to see tomorrow's Q-poll of the Senate race for a clearer picture of movement within their sample.

Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.

Meanwhile, CNN's new poll of the Senate race shows Republican Cory Gardner up by four points over incumbent Sen. Mark Udall:

Gardner held a 50 percent to 46 percent edge on first-term Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in the survey of 665 likely voters, conducted Oct. 9-13. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Republicans have targeted Udall and several other Democratic incumbents in their effort to win at least six seats this fall — enough to gain a Senate majority for President Barack Obama's final two years in office. Traditional Democratic advantages among women and urban voters aren't enough to overcome strong headwinds, said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

"Udall is getting clobbered in the all-important suburbs, as well as in rural areas, and his lead in Colorado cities is not enough to overcome that," Holland said.

"There is a gender gap, but in this case it appears to be working in favor of the Republican. Udall has a nine-point advantage among women, but that is dwarfed by the 20-point lead Gardner has among men," he said.

The same CNN poll shows incumbent Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper with a statistically meaningless one-point lead over Beauprez, 49-48%. We haven't seen the memo yet for CNN's poll, and since this is their first survey of Colorado races there's no trajectory to observe here. That said, most recent polling has shown Gardner opening up a small lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall, consistent with these numbers. Historically, as readers know, polling in Colorado tends to understate Democratic turnout, and recent election reforms like mail ballots for every voter and registration all the way up to Election Day make it more or less impossible for pollsters to know if their "likely voter" samples are accurate. Smart pollsters concede, and everyone playing pundit in these races needs to be aware, that the final result could be very different from anybody's polling due to unknown, unknowable variables. After this election, we'll all know a lot more about how these reforms have changed the electorate.

With all of this in mind, Democratic field campaigns fanning out across the state of Colorado today are fully aware of the urgency of their task–and these polls explain why.

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22 thoughts on “Q-Poll Tightens Governor’s Race, CNN: Gardner 50%, Udall 46%”

  1. Cory has the big Mo! We're going all the way. Harry Reid, Mark Udall, pack your things!!

    Obviously Beauprez and Hick are a horse race. I personally believe Beauprez will pull it out, but if Scott Gessler had been the nominee this race would be over. I just want to say that again for the record.

    2. Hmm, a pathological liar or a doofus? — hard to say which one would damage the Republican brand the most if they get elected.  Hope never to find out…

    3. The only place gardner is going to is to the podium to read his concession speech and tell the crowd how he called Senator Udall and congratulated him on winning his race. 😉

       

      Personhood being on the ballot spells doom for Cory Gardner and latinos and women voters will be coming out in large numbers to vote for Udall and against Cory Gardner. Gardner is toast. 😉

      http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/220720-poll-shows-udall-leading-big-with-hispanics

       

  2. …

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/220720-poll-shows-udall-leading-big-with-hispanics

    "When I asked why he was so confident of victory, even though the public polls showed Buck with a slight lead, he was direct. “They are under-polling Hispanics,” he said.

    -Colorado Senator Michael Bennet

     

    with women and latino voters overwhelmingly going for Udall and personhood being an albatross around Cory Gardner's neck, it's fair to say Gardner is toast.

  3. The more the idiot trolls gloat, the more worried you know they are.

    That, or they're too stupid to comprehend how terribly premature their puerile end-zone spiking really is.

    There's nothing I value more in a Teabagger than arrogant clucking and overconfident braying.

    Like lambs to the slaughter…

    1. You should be worried about Cory Gardner.

       

      http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/220720-poll-shows-udall-leading-big-with-hispanics

       

      If you right wing nuts do take over the senate, it won't be for very long. 😉

       

      We can obstruct you right wing parasites and block your legislation either with the senate rules or with Obama's veto pen.

      http://washingtonexaminer.com/even-if-gop-takes-senate-it-will-be-hard-to-hold-it-in-2016/article/2546010

       

      "After totaling the electoral votes in all the solid blue states, it becomes apparent that even a below average Democrat presidential candidate could begin the race with a whopping 246 advantage," the author said. "No wonder President (Barack) Obama was so confident of victory in 2012 for he knew the game was practically over before it began."

      University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said the hurdle for Republicans doesn't look any better if you count the underlying votes by citizens, not just the electoral results.

      "Democrats have also won the popular vote in five of the last six presidential contests," Sabato said. "The demographic shifts heading to mid century are all pro-Democratic."

       

        2. Too bad for you the majority of latino and women voters will be voting against Cory Gardner and all those many thousands of voters who turnout to vote down personhood again will also be voting against the republican who supports personhood. Cory Gardner. 😉 Get those tissues ready wingnut. Some more losses coming the GOP's way in Colorado. 😉

  5. The Grand Junction Sentinel endorses Hick – complete with a scathing rebuke to BWB.  I assume this will front-page before long, so I won't risk copyright infringement by copying the editorial as it is behind a paywall. 

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