President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Kamala Harris

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

(R) V. Archuleta

98%

2%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

(R) Marshall Dawson

95%

5%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

50%

50%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(D) Trisha Calvarese

90%

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Crank

(D) River Gassen

80%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

(R) John Fabbricatore

90%

10%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) B. Pettersen

(R) Sergei Matveyuk

90%

10%

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

70%↑

30%

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
November 07, 2014 10:49 AM UTC

Polis Improves Percentage Over 2012, Irritating Big Oil Greatly

  • 31 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
Rep. Jared Polis.
Rep. Jared Polis.

It seems like ancient history today, but just a few months ago, Colorado's political class was embroiled in a major controversy over proposed "local control" ballot initiatives to give communities greater say in regulating oil and gas drilling. Several residential cities along the northern Front Range have voted to suspend or even ban the practice of hydraulic fracturing within their boundaries, in the interest of protecting residents from drilling's harmful effects but conflicting with the mineral rights owned by energy companies.

Out of a number of proposals that circulated among environmentalist and civic groups this year, two proposals supported by Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) gained traction: an initiative to increase drilling setbacks from other development, and another putting an 'environmental Bill of Rights' into the state's consitution. Environmental protection has long been part of Polis' agenda, but it took on a greater importance for him after a driller violated the rules adjacent to property owned by the Congressman, later resulting in tens of thousands of dollars in fines.

At the same time, Polis was subjected to over-the-top criticism from everyone in Colorado with any connection to the oil gas industry, which if you haven't been paying attention includes a lot of Democrats. All kinds of speculation about the destruction Polis' initiatives would mean for Democrats up and down the ticket was traded at water coolers and spread among chattering class media outlets. Would Jared Polis' upward mobility in Washington take a hit? Might he even perhaps even lose to affable Republican CD-2 challenger George Leing for daring to touch the "Colorado Third Rail" of taking on the energy industry? When the race was called on Tuesday night for Polis, the headline from the Daily Camera's Alex Burness was almost gleeful: "By narrowest margin of career, Polis back for Term 4 in 2nd District."

Except, now that the votes are mostly in, that's not really true: fewer people voted this year, but in percentage terms, Rep. Polis actually improved from 2012 to 2014:

jared2012

jared2014

Sure, you can quibble about the role of the third party candidates in 2012, and it's not really that big of an increase, but the fact remains that the 2014 "Frackapalooza" debate has demonstrably not hurt Jared Polis politically. In every objective sense, George Leing was a better candidate than 2012's Sen. Kevin "Crazypants" Lundberg, and Leing had the benefit of all of this industry-backed presumption that Jared had "overstepped." All that before we even mention that this was a "Republican wave year."

Bottom line: as we've said before, the votes by residents of communities in Polis' district to suspend or ban fracking–Boulder, Broomfield, Lafayette, and the others–are proof that Polis is representing his constituents. There's some disappointment on the left about the deal by Polis to drop his 2014 ballot measures in favor of a commission to recommend legislation on the subject, but the other side of that coin is what happens should that compromise effort fail. In that event, we expect Polis to be back, with ballot measures that can pass as this year's could have.

From these results, we'd say Polis should have something else going for him: little to fear.

Tweet
Share

Comments

31 thoughts on “Polis Improves Percentage Over 2012, Irritating Big Oil Greatly”

  1. I propose that Polis run for Senator against Gardner in 2020.

    By the time, everyone will be SO sick of Gardner, that they regret their vote. Least popular Senator in history. He may also be gone before 2020 is up — perhaps he'll resign his seat to run for President along with the clown cars. Hick can appoint somebody in.

  4. Bullshit.  When you say margin, what a person typically views as the meaning of that is difference between the winner and his nearest competitor.  On that score Jared went from roughly a 17 point margin in 2012 to roughly a 13 point margin in 2014.  In other words, he LOST GROUND by 4 percentage points margin wise.  

    To get around this, you have altered the definition of margin so that it means "percent of total vote".  And sure, on that score Jared scored half a point higher.  But (a) that is without a green and libertarian candidate on the ballot in 2014 unlike 2012; and (b) again this isn't what people mean when they say "margin".

    Now, don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of a lot of what Jared does on drug/immigration/internet issues and I consider him to be a friend.  But that doesn't change the fact that your analysis is off. 

      2. Actually, in this case the pols version would better fit that definition. Elliot is 100% right about the commonly perceived meaning when someone compares win margins. 

    3. Seriously man, are you capable of anything other than semantic horseshit? I would have thought you'd have more meaningful things to say about this election since it want so well for you guys.

      1. You misunderstand my purpose.  I am not trying to spread partisan BS or gloat.  I simply am trying to correct POVs that I think are based on erroneous analysis.

      2. I'm not sure I understand the Fladen bashing on this one.  He's right, the "margin" commonly used is the margin of victory.  You could ask 100 voters in Chicago this question and 120 of them would give the same answer: how many percentage points the victor won by.

        Polis increased his vote share slightly in this election, but, while Pols is dismissive of this, not by as much as the Green party took from him in  2012.  He should have had all of that– instead he got 1/3 of it back.  Jared did fractionally worse this election, assuming that he should have had the Green vote and Leing the Libertarians.  Certainly not the indictment O&G wants to pretend it is, but no reason to cheer either.

        1. Thanks.  And to be clear, I am NOT trying to bash Jared on this one as I consider him a friend.  I just think the analysis in the OP is sloppy. 

          1. We see no reason for "Fladen bashing" either. Reviewing his argument, we agree that "percentage" is a better term than "margin," and we've corrected our title.

            Our point was not that Polis had some kind of blowout, but comparing the 2012 results and 2014, which are considered Democratic and GOP-friendly election years respectively, he didn't do badly at all–certainly nothing to indicate that the "Frackapalooza" battle has hurt him. And that's a point we believe is accurate.

  5. The Democrats up and down the ballot would have done better in this state if Polis' initiatives had been on it.

    I hope we do get a chance to vote on them in 2016. I have no doubt that they will carry the day.

    Leaving fracking practically unregulated is a really dumb idea.

    1. And demogaguing energy rights is really bad policy as well.  Point is that fracking is needed to produce energy, and energy production drives economic production which drives prosperity and in turn results in lives being saved.  

      2. Please use the appropriate adjectives: 

        "And demogaguing fossil energy rights is really bad policy as well.  Point is that fracking is needed to produce fossil energy, and fossil energy production drives economic production which drives prosperity and in turn results in lives being saved"

        I'd enjoy having you share links with the group as to how the prosperity you mention is saving lives – or creating prosperity for a broad range of Coloradans for that matter.

        1. You see, Mr. Fladen was prepared to provide his own example of overstating your case and sloppy analysis.  Go team energy from repurposed dead things!

      4. None of the ballot initiatives would have banned fracking, in spite of the fear-mongering (including by Governor Hick) around them. There are real jobs connected to the O&G energy industry, but the conversation around how, or if it's even possible, to protect the human and other lives, air and water, around its development has yet to happen at any meaningful level. As NotHopeful wrote, "Leaving fracking practically unregulated is a really dumb idea."

        And percentage-wise, O&G jobs are not even the dominant job in my new stomping ground, Weld County. O&G brought in 7,000 some jobs last year– but as a percent of the total economy,  O&G still employs fewer people than the less glamorous industries of meat production and packing, agriculture, hospital insurance billing, and manufacturing.
         

        2. While Greeley touts its "I Built That"  (at the tip of a drill bit), it appears their rugged independence is producing both wealth and poverty (at alarming rate).  Greeley has the highest level of poverty in the state at 21.7%; 36% of Greeley children under 18 live in poverty.

          But hey, everyone benefits from all that prosperity, right?  We're all 'less sick'? Better educated?  Insured?

          1. Most of my  immigrant students' families work in meat packing on graveyard shifts. Not great money, and because they are not citizens, although most would like to be, they don't disturb the predominant narrative that Weld County is white, Republican, and conservative.

            But even the native-born and white kids aren't doing that well economically, as you pointed out. Being an oil roughneck, farmer, or insurance data entry clerk is not well paid, either.

      5. I did not say that fracking should be banned. I suggested that regulation of that practice would be wise. Fracking has well-documented adverse impacts on air and water quality, for example, and the leaks of methane from wells are contributing to greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere. I also think that local communities and, certainly, homeowners should have much more ability than they currently have to forbid the practice. Fracking lowers property values and marks an area as dangerous to health, too.

        1. NotHopeful, I understood what you meant. My comments were more for Elliot's 

          … demogaguing energy rights is really bad policy as well. Point is that fracking is needed to produce energy, and energy production drives economic production which drives prosperity and in turn results in lives being saved.

          Fracking definitely should be regulated. Big Oil disagrees, because Freedom! Profits! 110,000 jobs! etc. Big Oil and its apologists, including Mr. Fladen and Mr. Hickenlooper, are still unwilling to regulate fracking in a meaningful way: 1. Fund inspectors and inspections to enforce existing regulations. 2. Increase penalties for willful disregard of regulations 3. Elect someone to the Public Utility Commission who isn't a Koch shill 4. Do long term health studies, or just pay attention to the health professionals already doing long term community health studies around fracking sites.

          I'm concerned about the impact of pollution on school children in Greeley.

           

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Yadira Caraveo
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

66 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!