August 21, 2008 09:19 PM UTC
Primary Day Losers
44 Comments- by: Colorado Pols
Check out this link for our list of Primary Day Winners. Click below to read the “Losers.”
Mary Alice Mandarich
Joan Fitz-Gerald’s campaign manager was given a lot of credit, and justifiably so, for helping Democrats to take control of the state senate in 2004 and hold onto power in 2006. In the right setting, she’s great. But Fitz-Gerald’s surprise loss shows that Mary Alice isn’t the right choice to manage a higher-profile race like CD-2 or the failed gubernatorial bid of Gail Schoettler. You can win state senate races by sticking to the fundamentals, but winning a bigger seat requires more creativity and an ability to think outside the ‘ol box. Ultimately, the lack of creativity-whether it was in the television spots, direct mail or messaging-doomed Fitz-Gerald to second place.
Mandarich can always say that she did the best she could despite getting significantly outspent by Jared Polis, but that doesn’t excuse the fact that she ran a bland, boring, lifeless campaign that never gave average voters a strong reason to vote for Fitz-Gerald over Polis or Will Shafroth. If you were an average voter, it was hard to tell the difference between the three candidates. When all things are relatively equal, the one with the best name ID wins; in that case, the one with the best name ID is usually the one with the most money.
Joan Fitz-Gerald
She lost the race for CD-2, but the bigger picture means this one really stings. Fitz-Gerald had long been mapping out her political future with this seat in mind, which is one of the reasons she passed on running for statewide office in 2006. This is a race that was Joan’s to lose, and she lost it; you could say that she lost it more than Jared Polis won it, in fact.
Will Shafroth, as we discussed in our WINNERS section, ran a clean, if unspectacular race, and he is well-positioned to run for another office in the near future. But Shafroth and his supporters could never have really believed that he would ultimately prevail on August 12. Fitz-Gerald’s situation is the exact opposite; she probably should have won this race, and her future is much less rosy. Because of her age and because of the way she lost this race, Fitz-Gerald’s political sheen isn’t as sheeny. If she doesn’t get appointed to the Secretary of State seat in January, there’s not much left for her as an elected official.
EMILYs List
Two years ago EMILY’s List backed Peggy Lamm’s failed bid for congress against Ed Perlmutter. This year they picked a much stronger candidate in Joan Fitz-Gerald, and this race they were expected to win (unlike Lamm’s race). People in Colorado used to speak of EMILYs List as a powerful ally to have on your side. Now it looks like they really can’t make a difference one way or the other, whether that’s fair or not.
Jeff Crank
It’s easy to forget now that the Rocky Mountain News briefly declared Crank the winner of the six-way Republican Primary in CD-5 in 2006. Crank was clearly the more likable candidate at the time, and when he lost narrowly to Doug Lamborn, many observers (including us) figured him a shoo-in to defeat Lamborn in a rematch this year. It definitely hurt that Bentley Rayburn ran again, because he and Crank likely split the votes needed to beat Lamborn, but it did not go unnoticed that Crank was almost a different candidate in 2008 than he was in 2006. It was almost as if Crank was just going through the motions this year. He didn’t raise much money, and he didn’t really make any noise.
Two years ago Crank seemed destined to be the leader of El Paso County politics for decades. Now, after a lackluster campaign that marked two straight defeats, his star has faded considerably. Not only did Crank fail to beat Lamborn, but his name won’t be on the list of many Republicans looking for candidates in the near future.
Newspaper Editorial Boards
Note to all newspaper editorial boards in Colorado: If you want your endorsement to actually matter, make it before October.
With so many voters casting their ballots through the mail in Colorado, the traditional campaign timeline has changed drastically. Shafroth received the endorsement of both the Rocky Mountain News and The Denver Post in CD-2, but those endorsements came a few weeks too late. For endorsements to matter, candidates need time to be able to circulate news of the editorials to voters-and they need to be able to do it BEFORE the mail ballots begin to drop.
In the primary, mail ballots were arriving at voters’ doors in the second week of July. Any newspaper endorsement that came after that first wave of ballots was useless to the thousands of people who had already cast their vote and mailed their ballot. In CD-2, for example, the Boulder Daily Camera made the ridiculous decision to hold their endorsement of Fitz-Gerald until August 3. By that time, a good 50-60 percent of the voters had long since cast their ballots.
It will be interesting to watch how many newspaper editorial boards actually figure this out before the general election, and how many still breathlessly endorse candidates on Halloween.
Election Judges
Talk about your boring jobs. It was a boring job to be an election judge anyway, but it really sucked this year when only a handful of people staggered into the polls on Election Day. Mail ballots are where it’s at in 2008.
People Who Watch Network TV
People always complain about too many political ads this time of year, but there wasn’t a single memorable ad that ran in advance of the Primary. The ads in CD-2 were all dull; you could have inserted any of the candidates into any of the commercials, and it wouldn’t have really changed the message. Equally lame were the ads in CD-6, particularly Wil Armstrong’s tired approach of telling voters that “we don’t need more politicians in Washington.” Doesn’t anybody have an original idea?
Wil Armstrong
The only good that came out of Armstrong’s run for congress in CD-6 is that people now know his first name is spelled with just one ‘L.’ For a guy who is blessed with the connections and the money that come from being Bill’s son, he ran a really dull and lifeless campaign that never even had a chance of succeeding.
Wil could have been an interesting force in Colorado GOP politics, but instead he jumped into a race he probably couldn’t win, ran a lame campaign, and now he just looks like the rich politician’s son who thought it might be fun to try to run for congress (not to mention that Mike Coffman, who beat the pants off him in the Primary, won’t be interested in helping him out anytime soon). We probably won’t be seeing much of Wil Armstrong anytime soon.
Ted Harvey
The emperor certainly has no clothes. Harvey was never a huge force in GOP circles, but he had been moving up quickly and was well-positioned to make a good run in CD-6. Instead, he proved to be a horrible fundraiser and an inept candidate. He’s lucky that he lives in a strong Republican district, because if he ever faced a tough opponent for re-election he’d get drilled.
Doug Bruce/Democrats
Make no mistake-Bruce is a clown. And an angry clown at that. But despite his lack of social skills, he had managed to create the most significant piece of policy in decades in Colorado (TABOR), and got himself elected first El Paso County Commissioner and then an appointment to the state legislature. Bruce was a menace under the gold dome, but from a policy perspective he was harmless; it’s not like anyone was going to help Bruce pass any of his legislation.
Bruce did prove to be a disastrous distraction for Republicans from day one, which is why they put so much effort into making sure he lost his re-election in the primary. When he wasn’t kicking photographers, Bruce was sulking around the Capitol making an ass of himself and stealing the news spotlight from the rest of Republicans. For most of the session, Bruce was the Republican story, which frustrated GOP legislators to no end (but delighted Democrats). If re-elected, Bruce was the worst thing that could happen to Republicans, and about the best thing that could have happened to Democrats. In the end, Bruce probably lost his seat because of something relatively minor compared to his other indiscretions; when he refused to vote for a measure honoring Veterans, he gave opponents the silver bullet to finally kill him.
Bruce was already a big loser, but he was a loser with a legislative seat. He just pushed his circus act a little too far in 2008, and it finally cost him politically. Probably for good.
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Obama wins after waging a sexist campaign that suggests a woman could never be president. Obama plays the race card calling Hillary and Bill racists.
Hillary had to admit during her campaign that McCain has a lifetime of experience and would be a better choice for president then Obama.
Dems blow it and vote for a Rock Star instead of an experienced politician.
Obama reinforces the glass ceiling and women all over America lose to this sexist man.
You know, the one that this post was about?
JFG lost HUGE, but her loss might be the SoS office’s gain. I think that she still has the potential to be a major force in Colorado politics. Everybody’s talking about Ed Perlmutter running for the Dems after Ritter is term-limited, but what about Joan?
If she does succeed Coffman at the SoS office, wouldn’t that put her in striking distance of running? Just floating that one out there.
someone is not guarding the computer room at the asylum again….
the peroxide… Hillary feels entitled. The “commander in chief test” was where she shot herself in the foot. She freely announced McCain would be a better president. That in itself proves she is not a team player and only out for her own glory.
Gender and race should never have been brought into the stage. only IDEAS! Obama had better Ideas. thus he won the majority of votes. Republicans had been gearing up for her as the nominee for the last few years…
Serious Dem friends of mine in Iowa related how Iowa went down… they all knew republicans would crash their caucus and would go for Hillary. they all decided before hand to stick it to republican crashers, and go for Obama. Thus the ball started rolling Obamas way.
if Hillary were a team player she would actively encourage her supporters to support Obama. She is lackluster in that endeavor.
…have also told tales of Hill’s causus workers as being demeaning, rude and boorish.
Like a true Coloradian dislikes Texans, a true Iowan has no use for East Coast elitist carpetbaggers.
Rudy was smart enough not to show his weasel face in Iowa. He could have easily been shipped back East tied up on a flat bed rail car.
not sure about the Coloradians.
Is that a mix blood between Coloradans and Californians?
…it’s a combination of Vicodin and poor typing skills.
Besides, I was not told that it was Pedantic Thursday again.
It’s Quibble Thursday.
Get it right, damnit!
😉
…I’ve been busy filling out my TPS reports. Is tomorrow still Hawaiian Shirt Day?
So yes, hawaiin shirts are required tomorrow.
the hyphen ensures the double “O” emphasis. 😛
Hands down. Bill Armstrong was the biggest loser along with GOP establishment types and John Andrews who supported Wil.
Mike Coffman and his wife will grow to hate DIA, if they don’t already.
Talk about cloutless.
Coffman will only fly home when he gets sick of his wife or vice-versa. This guy will be in Congress along with Doug Lamborn for another 30 years.
It’s a bold assessment, but I think they shake it off and survive. First, because failing to install your idiot son in Congress isn’t really a huge or unexpected loss — it’s more of a pratfall — second, there’s no one credible to take their place, and the GOP needs an establishment.
So until Coffman can make a single phone call to raise $50K, funnel it through a straw 527 and get a veiled attack piece on the street within days — we’ll always have Armstrong and Andrews.
Won’t be surprised if you’re right.
You Go Girl!
MAM fumbled big time, but she has a long history of successes for this to make her the “biggest loser” on primary day. She had the misfortune of managing a campaign against a candidate with access to unlimited personal resourced which he was willing to tap liberally. So she has a “but” after her “loser” tag…
JFG also has the potential for redemption if she gets the SOS office (which I think she will). She also shares MAM’s “but” after her “loser” tag.
I think Armstrong ultimately has the title biggest loser because he tried to peak too soon and that could ultimately be his undoing. Sort of like Rick O’Donnell in the 7th CD. He ran for congress too soon…lost in a primary and then was slaughtered when he finally did get the nomination. Now no one seriously expects Rick O’Donnell to be a candidate for anything anytime soon.
Joan deserves all the blame for her loss.
Just as advertising and PR can’t turn Windows into Mac’s OS X, best manager can’t turn a jerk into a Congresswoman.
I had to go with Jeff Crank, if only because of the great expectations everyone had for him given the closeness of the ’06 race and GOP machine support he enjoyed in CD 5. I suspect once Rayburn got in the race and refused to leave, Crank saw the handwriting on the walls, decided the game was lost, and just went through the motions.
While J.F.G. was clearly the frontrunner, she never had a lock on the CD 2 nod. And she knew Jared had: (1) lots of money, and (2) a reputation for being a fresh face with new ideas. J.F.G. had to stay competitive in the money race, AND come across as someone with new ideas instead of running as a traditional Dem. She ran the same campaign H.R.C. ran with the same result.
Two years ago Crank seemed destined to be the leader of El Paso County politics for decades.
What world were you living in Coloradopols? In 06 Crank was outraised at every turn. Outpolled by Lamborn, and didn’t even get back into the race until CUNA dropped major bucks on an ad buy. Sure he won the assembly (and we all know now how important that is) but that was riding on Hefley’s coattails, and even here, on the Coloradopols website, you all had Lamborn listed as the favorite to win the entire election on your Big Line.
What’s with the rewriting of history all of a sudden?
Shari Williams the power consultant for Armstrong. She has lost more times than Republicans care to remember at least those of us with grey hair. Wil is her latest victim. A few of the others are:
Bob Beauprez for Governor 06
Bob Schafer for Senate 04
Greg Walcher 04
Bob Greenlee 98
Bruce Benson 96
Terry Considine 94
And I thought the “GOP Crown Jewel” was the skipper of that campaign.
It’s on the Dem side, too. Bob Schrum, is the name, I think.
Can you imagine hiring someone with a resume of consisten failure at doing what they are hired to do?
…but she is younger and there are plenty of more Colo. Republicans in the tank ready to run losing campaigns.
They not only came out late, but their endorsement means almost nothing now. It used to be that those endorsements had a gigantic impact. But now, by the time they endorse, the candidates have been so discussed on the web that they are just one more voice.
in high [profile races, David, though they can get people to look at a candidate.
Where we are huge is down the ballot; especially in nonpartisan races, like RTD, or ballot issues, where people aren’t locked in to R or D. I think we can swing a point or two in a legislative race, much more in ballot issues. But with millions being spent on a congressional, senatorial, gubernatorial or presidential race, people are bombarded with information.
The less time people will put in on a race, the more that does count for. And up here in Boulder the Sierra Club counts for that even more although sometimes I think they are more a mirror of what the political elite wants than a leader.
not so much by backing JFG but by backing the odious DLCer Nikki Tinker, who ran against Representative Steve Cohen in Tennessee.
She used blatantly racist tactics by pitting blacks against Jews, ran vile attack ads against Cohen that even Obama came out and denounced and basically ran one of the nastiest Democratic primary campaigns of the 2008 season.
And Emily’s List backed her, because she was prochoice (so was Cohen) and more importantly, because she has a vagina, which seems to be the only two qualifications required to get an endorsement out of Emily’s List.
Tinker lost. And Emily’s List continues to lose their credibility.
Thank God.
they have to be a democrat.
EMILY’s list will not endorse pro-choice, female, Republicans…which at this point means that Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, the last two pro-choice Republican women, will never get their endorsement.
Not after they endorsed the homophobic, racist Tinker. Sorry, but I would hardly call her a Democrat. She is an old time DLC pal of Harold Ford’s with a “D” after her name as an afterthought. DINO is a better term for her and the fact that Emily’s List would actually endorse someone like her is just another reason for their group to fade into further irrelevancy.
(And I do see your point, by the way, I’m just ranting.)
🙂
Will Shafroth raised a ton of money and ended up getting as many votes per dollar spent as Josh Hanfling. Those were two well regarded candidates who totally tanked. Neither had a message, a srategy or an organization to match the dollars they were able to raise.
Rocky White and Dorothy Butcher also need to be on the list. Butcher a Pueblo Power gave up her seat in the House to lose narrowly for a Commissioner’s race. Rocky White was the toast of Denver after ousting Rafael Gallegos at the Assembly but got creamed two to one in the vote that counted.
A winner on primary day and in general is rising star Sal Pace from Pueblo. Sal will be a leader in the House from day one. The downfall of Butcher puts him first in line to move up when Senator Tapia is term limited in two years.
I don’t know if anyone really noticed, but Sal was also key in Vigil beating White. He actively raised Vigil money, organized canvasses, and was seen with him almost daily in Southern Colorado campaigning. Now Vigil goes into the legislature as another vote for Pace when he goes for leadership someday. Pace continues his reputation as a power broker in rural Colorado. Virtually every candidate he has worked for has been a success. He goes into the General Assembly with a lot of his senior legislators already indebted to him.
Definitely a big winner, and well-earned wins too!
MAM and JFG might have lost, but they are far from being primary day losers. They ran an admirable campaign, they were just outspent by an opponent by over $6 million. No matter how brilliant of a political strategist one might be, that was a nearly insurmountable financial disadvantage. JP also demonstrated he would have gone deeper into his pockets if needed.
Let us not forget the name ID that JP brought to the table before throwing $8m in the race. The Jared Polis Foundation is everywhere, a very deliberate move. The other of the big four Democratic funders have different names on their foundations/organizations — The Bohemian Foundation, The Gay and Lesbian Fund, and the Big Horn Center. The name ID argument seems rather bogus, as the foundation was very effective about promoting their good work alongside their benefactor’s name. Additionally, JP won statewide office previously, which also takes a great deal of name ID.
…was that all gay foundatons are alike. And they all are run by Tim Gill. Don’t tell me that’s an oversimplification?!
but judging by his 527 attacks on Polis, Gill is a gay-basher.
Just kidding, but you gotta admit that little episode was a bit weird, Jammy.
It’s fine to endorse FG, and donate the max to her campaign. But I thought it was a bit crass of him to finance attacks on Polis after all Polis had done with Gill, Stryker and bridges in common cause.
I had been told by those gays-in-the-know that Gill’s support for F-G was all about his deep regard for her. Fine. Makes sense. But when he started funding attack ads on Polis, I started a-wonderin’ if something else wasn’t at play. A big, bitchy falling out, maybe? Where are the investigative journalists when you need them? (Tracking down McCain’s beachhouses?)
My view was always that F-G was a great senator, leader, etc. But she wouldn’t have been anything big w/o the big dough of the Big 4, Polis included. And her election as Dem leader was largely her being in the right place at the right time, with big ups to term limits. So let’s get some perspective, peeps!
No doubt there’s more to the story than simple loyalty to Fitz-Gerald, but would you use the same sexist tone if you were talking about a woman donor who broke with Fitz? Or is it just gay donors who are “bitchy” when they — horrors! — work against a candidate who is also gay? Let’s get some perspective, indeed — this was a primary, friends turn against friends, even if they both happen to be gay.
..or hadn’t you heard?
I demand to vote for both.