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August 30, 2008 09:23 PM UTC

"An Eagleton Scenario"

  • 57 Comments
  • by: Steve Balboni

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

Last night I invoked the name of George McGovern’s disastorous 1972 VP selection, Senator Thomas Eagleton. Matt Yglesias channeling his inner me this morning,

…normally VP choices don’t make much of a difference politically, but a VP candidate with no experience dealing with the national media who the candidate himself has barely spoken to risks an Eagleton Scenario.

The more one thinks about the pick the more frightening it becomes. McCain apparently believes he is hiring an intern,

“[Sarah Palin is] going to learn national security at the foot of the master for the next four years, and most doctors think that he’ll be around at least that long,” said Charlie Black, one of Mr. McCain’s top advisers, making light of concerns about Mr. McCain’s health, which Mr. McCain’s doctors reported as excellent in May.

The Palin pick is absolutely indefensible except when viewed purely as a cynical political play for women voters and the far-right Christian base.  

John McCain has demonstrated once again that despite all of his experience he has tragically poor judgment. Palin is not a serious candidate for VP and will place this country at great peril should the McCain/Palin ticket somehow wins this election.

Steve Benen has a good round up of what some on the right are saying in brief moments of honesty. Even the flacks on the right realize that this is little more than a desperate political gambit with no thought whatsoever towards governing or the fate and security of the country. This quote from National Review’s Kathyrn Jean-Lopez is pretty telling,

As much as I loathe Obama-Biden, I can’t in good conscience vote for a McCain-Palin ticket. Palin has absolutely no experience in foreign affairs. Considering both McCain’s advanced age and the state of the world today, it is essential that the veep be exceedingly qualified to assume the office of president. I simply don’t have any confidence in Palin’s ability to deal effectively with Iran, Russia, China, etc.

Lopez is ordinarily one of the GOP’s biggest cheerleaders. She’s also a conservative Catholic. Exactly the type of voter that the Palin pick should appeal to and yet Lopez now says that she cannot vote for the GOP ticket because of the selection of Palin.

After spending the better part of the 21st century riling up the base with talk of a decades long war with radical Islam and attacking Democrats as fatally weak and unserious on national security even the GOP base is going to have a hard time swallowing the Palin selection.

As far as strategy for the Obama campaign I largely agree with the first line of thought expressed here, at least for the time being,

So the smart move here would be to largely ignore her and focus the attention on McCain. Vice-presidential picks, although they generate a lot of media hype, do not end up deciding presidential races.

This pick is so obviously terrible that the media will do a lot of the heavy lifting for the Obama campaign. We don’t even need to lead those horses to water, they’re already drinking. As the media digs into her past and the brief honeymoon news cycle ends Palin will then have to stand up to the rigors of the national press for the first time. The odds of her coming through the first 2 to 3 weeks unscathed are minimal at best.

At the same time Hillary Clinton just became Barack Obama’s most important surrogate. The Palin selection is so completely patronizing towards women voters generally and Hillary supporters specifically that I don’t think there will be any problem motivating the junior Senator from New York to level blistering attacks against Palin.

Now as to the question of the importance of VP picks I generally agree with the assessment that they don’t matter much but I don’t think we’re playing by the standard rules in this case.

For one thing John McCain is a 72 year old cancer survivor. His VP selection is critically important given his age and health concerns. Picking someone so clearly unqualified puts the issues of age and health into the political discourse in a way that they were not before.

Secondly, most Presidential candidates do not select VP candidates who undercut their entire campaign narrative – experience, leadership on the most foreign policy important issues of our day. Palin lays waste to the experience canard. I was watching television last night and the various anti-Obama experience ads kept popping up. They seem patently ridiculous now given the Palin selection, their effectiveness is completely gone. From an article in Politico today*,

“I think we’re going to have to examine our tag line, ‘dangerously inexperienced,'” a top McCain official said wryly.

With the Palin selection the McCain campaign has ceded the high ground that their experience attacks were giving them.

Finally, it’s clear that McCain’s camp has not done any serious vetting of Palin. No one really knows what sort of land mines lay out there. The reason most VP picks are inconsequential in the long run is because most VP picks are well-vetted known entities who are chosen, first and foremost, because they will do no harm to the campaign. Palin was chosen as a deliberate gamble, a political Hail-Mary. The McCain campaign has their fingers crossed that this pick won’t absolutely explode in their face.

The Palin selection is one generally without precedence, one cannot view this pick through the normal course of VP selections. The only selection that is remotely analogous to this one is the Eagleton pick of 1972. I don’t think John McCain’s campaign is another George McGovern but his selection of Palin has made it pretty likely that McCain will become another Bob Dole.

*ht to Danny the Red Hair

Cross-Posted at Steampoweredopinions.blogspot.com

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57 thoughts on ““An Eagleton Scenario””

  1. The remote analogy is only that Palin could blow up in McCain’s face. Eagleton fits your above description of a conventional VP pick — an old hand long on the scene, thought to be well known. He wasn’t vetted by the McGovern campaign because the pick was made at the very last minute, but he came recommended by everyone else McGovern had asked. Eagleton had one landmine lying in his past — Palin can’t walk a foot without stepping in one of hers.

    You’re also right that Palin undercuts the thrust of McCain’s campaign so far — “we need an experienced hand in this dangerous world” — but it’s also worth noting what Palin doesn’t bring to the table for Republicans.

    This election will be decided on the economy — which team gives voters the most confidence they can fix things. Palin brings nothing to a ticket already lacking in economic heft, other than her public disagreement with McCain over ANWR, and that’s a fringe issue that will recede even further after Congress votes on expanded offshore drilling. Maybe she can offer tips on stretching a large family’s food budget — beyond that, she offers nothing in the arena that will decide this election.

    1. I’m from Missouri so I know the Eagleton legacy, I sell him short by only mentioning him in the context of the 72 campaign. Rick Perlstein’s new book “Nixonland” does a good job of describing how the pick came about.   Very interesting read if you haven’t read it already.

      America faces big challenges economically and internationally, what does Sarah Palin provide as a candidate to address those top concerns of voters? Nothing as far as I can see. You’re right on that and we should continue to press Republican’s on that point.

       

      1. Yes, Nixonland is an amazing read, it’s hard to imagine making sense of politics these days without it.

        There’s also McGovern’s account, which I’ve heard before but which he also recounted in the Times yesterday:

        When I arrived in Miami on the Sunday before the Democratic convention in 1972, I had yet to select a running mate. I had already asked Ed Muskie, the senator from Maine, and Hubert Humphrey, the 1968 nominee and my longtime friend, if they would be on the ticket with me. Each had said no.

        So at the convention, I met with my staff in my hotel room on Thursday, the day after I was nominated. We had until 4 p.m. to find a vice-presidential nominee.

        My first pick that morning was Senator Ted Kennedy, whom I had called the night before. He declined, and instead suggested that I pick Senator Tom Eagleton of Missouri, who was openly campaigning for the post. I rejected the advice because I didn’t know Eagleton very well.

        My next choice was Sargent Shriver, the first director of the Peace Corps and Senator Kennedy’s brother-in-law, but I could not reach him because he was in the Soviet Union. So I called Walter Mondale, another Senate colleague. Like Senator Kennedy, he said no and recommended Eagleton. I still felt unsure.

        Then I turned to Abe Ribicoff, a senator from Connecticut and another longtime friend. He said it would be an honor to be the first Jew on the national ticket of either party, but he was about to marry. “I just can’t cancel a honeymoon and take on a national campaign,” he told me.

        Gary Hart, my campaign manager, suggested Kevin White, the mayor of Boston. I called the mayor and asked him if he would be interested. He gave an emphatic yes.

        Almost immediately, Ken Galbraith – the Harvard economist, one of the leaders of the Massachusetts delegation and a close friend – called to say that I couldn’t possibly pick Kevin White because he had backed Muskie during the Massachusetts primary. “If you pick him our delegation will walk out of the convention,” Ken said. I told the mayor we could not go forward with him.

        Frank Mankiewicz, my political director, said with a wry smile: “Walter Cronkite was just named the most admired man in America. How about him?” We let this intriguing possibility pass as too unrealistic. I later learned from Walter that he would have accepted. I wish we had chosen him.

        Instead I called Gaylord Nelson, a senator from Wisconsin and my closest friend in the Senate, and pleaded with him to bail me out. “I’m afraid you might win and then I’d be stuck with that damn job as vice president,” he said. “No, thanks.” He recommended Eagleton.

        At 3:45 p.m., I called Senator Eagleton. He accepted, and then told Frank Mankiewicz there was nothing in his background that would be considered troublesome. History would render a different judgment.

    1. Sometimes Americans pick their president on the basis of who they’d rather have a beer with.

      McCain for Beer Buddy, Obama for President

      That line came to me this morning in the shower as a reply to the rockstar line.

      3. when you really think about it since he’s a dry drunk who allegedly doesn’t drink beer so how COULD you have a beer with him?  But then I’m assuming people voted for him for reasons that included even the barest modicum of sense.

  3. This is pure speculation, but I would like to suggest the following:

    -McCain&Palin proves to be a strong ticket

    -catholic bishops say catholics cannot vote for a choice candidate when there is a prolife alternative

    -Both campaigns stress early voting

    -Weekend before the election, Palin is either indicted or not indicted but not exactly cleared, in the troopergate scandal

    – McCain &Palin squeek through and win

    -Palin, after much reflection, resigns, arguing that she would be a distraction and wants to return to Alaska to clear her name and restore her reputation

    -The timing of this announcement depends solely on the makeup of the new congress, because McCain needs to be able to get his nomination for the VP approved.

    -McCain nominates Liberman for VP’; Congress approves

    -McCain smiles

    -Target Iran

    –

    1. – Claiming a ticket to be strong doesn’t prove it to be

      – I’m a Catholic, and Im voting for Obama/Biden

      – McCain wanted Libercrat to be his VP but the powers pulling his strings wouldn’t let him. In fact, I heard a floor fight to reject Lieberman was in the works.

      – If McCain cuts out the party in his nomination, he loses the  base and the election

      – McCain weeps

      1. I clearly stated I was speculating. I listed a scenario  based on assumptions…I would not defend those assumptions as fact….I was just thinking out loud …waiting for the CSU=CU game to start..

        Although, today, I am more than a little convinced that McCain is pissed that the right wing would not give him Lieberman….I don’t think Palin stays in the office, if elected, very long…

        1. That the AG’s office said they won’t need to issue any subpoenas.

          Monegan serves at the pleasure of the Governor – he’s a political appointee.  He can be fired for wearing red pants if she wants to.

          Here’s what her ex-bro-in-law has allegedly done:

             Troopers eventually investigated 13 issues and found four in which Wooten violated policy or broke the law or both:

             вЂў Wooten used a Taser on his stepson.

             вЂў He illegally shot a moose.

             вЂў He drank beer in his patrol car on one occasion.

             вЂў He told others his father-in-law would “eat a f’ing lead bullet” if he helped his daughter get an attorney for the divorce.

          It’s conceivable that she’d fire Monegan for not firing Wooten when he so richly deserved it, regardless of family involvement.  She has a duty to protect her constituents, after all.

          Here’s a great hammering of all of the anti-Palin shrieking currently going on.

          I’m popping some popcorn.  I love watching squirming like this.

          1. As Republicans contort themselves to find something — anything — positive to say about the Palin pick.

            Sure, she’s under investigation for abuse of power, and the McCain camp apparently did no vetting regarding the issue. But the guy drank a beer in a state patrol car on one occasion, so bringing the office of the governor to bear in a family custody battle is fine. And Palin’s repeated and continued lies about the pressure she put on the commissioner — hey, it’s Alaska.

            And it’s not an isolated incident. Palin nearly faced a recall election a decade ago when she tried to fire the Wasilla police chief and library director because they looked at her crosswise.

            Palin is manifestly unqualified to be first in line to the presidency. You can question Obama’s qualifications, but more than 18 million voters and the oldest political party in the world chose him to run after a 20 month campaign. Palin was chosen in a last-minute, ill-prepared flurry by one man whose VP pick marks his first crucial decision as a presidential nominee. Voters should be very concerned about putting any more decisions in John McCain’s hands.

          2.    Who elected Todd?  (I seem to recall that was the familiar refrain we heard during Bill Clinton’s first term; who elected her? )

              Will Sarah and Todd be co-VPs if McSame wins?

          3. I don’t feel threatened by Palin one bit, you can see the train-wreck coming from several miles off.

            I’m sort of dumbfounded at the sheer number of different levels that the Palin selection is a complete disaster for McCain. I’m still in shock that he thought this was somehow a good idea.  

            1. But I can tell you, honestly, that from talking to party friends, that this is the first time most of us have actually excited about the ticket as opposed to being afraid of the fact that a lot of folks might vote for Obama without knowing what he’s really about because he gives a good prepared speech about “hope”.

              For the first time in the cycle, most R’s are united and enthused.  From a party standpoint, that’s good.

                    1. they’ve announced this 17 year old child is going to marry the father. Seems like getting married at 17 wouldn’t be what any sensible woman would want for her daughter.  

              2. …and my guess is that there are couple of RINOs who are a little queesy about her positions on some of the social issues.

                  You guys want to borrow some PUMA signs that never got much use at the Pepsi Center last week?

    3.    Nice hypothetical scenario there, but I disagree about Lieberman as V.P.  I think a Democratic-controlled Congress would be more likely to confirm Tom Ridge than Joe Lieberman as V.P.

      1. It would be the perfect chance to get Lieberman out of the Senate and put a Democrat in his place. Then you’d have a heartbeat from the presidency a man who was pro-choice, right on the environment, not so bad for workers, and likely to make good Supreme Court picks.

        Still, that’s so many hypotheticals away from reality, who knows?

        1.    Gov. Jodi Rell (R-Ct.) would probably appoint U.S. Rep Chris Shays, a pro-Iraq War RINO who has the dubious distinction of being the only surviving House Republican from anywhere in New England.

            However, Shays voting record in the Senate would be identical to Lieberman’s.

            1. Those tallies are a bit distorted since they  count bills where both parties vote the same way. In fact most votes are nearly unanimous because most votes are procedural or on things like naming post offices. Looking at the last ten votes, 6 of them are ones where he voted with his party but also voted with the Democratic party.

  4. Monegan says the McCain campaign didn’t even talk to him.  If a VP candidate is under ethics investigation you’d think you’d want to ask a couple of questions: its called vetting.

    Especially since he made the decision after meeting her once.

    McCain’s shockingly bad judgment was based on shocking limited information.  Its not about Palin its about McCain.

    1. say that she has been thoroughly vetted but clearly she has not.  Another lousy, reckless choice by the ever reckless and none too wise or smart John McCain.  I think this will help Obama a lot.

  5. * Charles Krauthammer: “The Palin selection completely undercuts the argument about Obama’s inexperience and readiness to lead…. To gratuitously undercut the remarkably successful ‘Is he ready to lead’ line of attack seems near suicidal.”

    * Noah Millman, presenting a defense for Palin: “I realize, of course, that she’s totally unqualified to be President at this point in time. If McCain were to die in February 2009, I hope Palin would have the good sense to appoint someone who is more ready to be President to be her Vice President, on the understanding that she would then resign and be appointed Vice President by her successor.”

    * Ramesh Ponnuru called it “tokenism,” adding, “Can anyone say with a straight face that Palin would have gotten picked if she were a man?”

    * David Frum: “The longer I think about it, the less well this selection sits with me. And I increasingly doubt that it will prove good politics. The Palin choice looks cynical…. It’s a wild gamble, undertaken by our oldest ever first-time candidate for president in hopes of changing the board of this election campaign. Maybe it will work. But maybe (and at least as likely) it will reinforce a theme that I’d be pounding home if I were the Obama campaign: that it’s John McCain for all his white hair who represents the risky choice, while it is Barack Obama who offers cautious, steady, predictable governance…. If it were your decision, and you were putting your country first, would you put an untested small-town mayor a heartbeat away from the presidency?”

    * Mark Halperin: “On the face of it, McCain has failed the ultimate test that any presidential candidate must face in picking a running mate: selecting someone who is unambiguously qualified to be president.”

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.c…

        1. For one, the delegates LOVE her. For another, she’ll withdraw citing family reasons, if anything happens. It’s exceedingly unlikely, especially as Gustav draws attention from the pick, but the more likely scenario is she withdraws and the RNC delegates draft her anyway.

        1. “When I announced my choice, I was trying to say Pawlenty, but my mouth was full and it was a bad cell phone connection. I didn’t realize I’d been misunderstood until it was too late. Now, when a natural disaster threatens the Gulf Coast, I have to quietly correct the misimpression and hope no one notices. By the way, who was that good looking girl campaigning with us this weekend? One of Cindy’s kids?”

    3. Charles Krauthammer: “The Palin selection completely undercuts the argument about Obama’s inexperience and readiness to lead…. To gratuitously undercut the remarkably successful ‘Is he ready to lead’ line of attack seems near suicidal.”

      by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Sun Aug 31, 2008

      There is a world of difference between a major political party’s presidential candidate not being ready to lead and a major political party’s vice presidential candidate being accused of the same thing.  It seems that Democrats are making as much noise as they can about this pick to deflect the legitimate criticism about Obama’s inexperience.

      The first five paragraphs of the September 2008 lead editorial of American Police Beat, an industry journal for cops, stated:

      One of the reasons Barack Obama is popular with certain voters is that he represents “change.”  

      We’ve never had a black commander in chief, so that would definitely represent one change.

      But beyond feel-good slogans and inspirational political speeches, no one really knows what kind of president the senator from Illinois would be.

      In the area of law enforcement, Obama has said very little about how he would treat public safety as a national priority.

      It’s a sad state of affairs when people are excited about a candidate because of what they don’t know about him as opposed to what they do know. (my emphasis)

      In order for Obama to win, a plurality of voters have to believe that McCain would be a third term of Bush.  That’s an arguable point.

      In order for McCain to win, a plurality of voters need to recognize that Obama has no executive experience and less than four years in Congress.  That’s irrefutable.

      1. In order for McCain to win, he choose to implement Rovian tactics and pick a right-wing ideologue to rally his base and try and sell her as something she’s not; ready.

        Carville spells it out plainly

        Did you notice how quickly the GOP tries to play the sexism card?  

    1. It appears the McCain campaign is using Hurricane Gustav for political cover by not only dumping the news that Palin had to hire a private attorney for her involvement in trooper-gate, but also that her teenage daughter is pregnant, her husband has DUI on record, and Palin was in charge of a political 527 for indicted Senator Ted Stevens.

      That’s a lot information to unload on one day. What better time to bury all of that than on a holiday with a hurricane.

  8. The values of this woman reflected in the choices she has made are legitimate political issues. The indifference of McCain to needs of this family are also a legitimate topic of discussion.

    I am not in anyway connected to the Obama campaign and so I feel free to comment. I also want to pause and thank and acknowledge those women, and some men, whom I have known who have forgone career moves or even given up jobs because the needs of their children came first.

    Palin has a very young son, nineteen years old, deploying to Iraq in less than two months…two months where she will be unavailable to him. What are his last days at home going to be like? What does he need in order to be best prepared for what could be brutal combat?

    The four month old infant is a Down’s Syndrome child. Such children are physically fragile and need concentrated early intervention to be able to maximize their potential.

    Such babies need the constant presence of a loving parent.

    A young woman pregnant with her first child needs her mother. period.

    Furthermore, there are two other young daughters in the family.  Their big brother is going off to war. Who is helping them prepare?  Are they the defacto “mothers” for their baby brother?

    The overwhelming ego of John Edwards dragging his young children all over when they needed to be prepared  to deal with the coming death of their mother, was god awful.  As is the ambition of Palin.

    Has McCain even been around when his seven children were young?  Does he have a clue about what children need?

    I have heard nothing from the repubs except how this choice can be used to clobber the dems politically…

    Republicans  make me sick to my stomach.  May god help those poor kids.

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