U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) George Stern
(D) A. Gonzalez
(R) Sheri Davis
40%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
September 11, 2008 09:49 PM UTC
47 Comments
When we have Obama and McCain personally posting here on Pols we’ll know we really are the deciding factor 🙂
…I don’t think either candidate is interested in wasting his time on people like us. I think about 99.9% of the folks in here know exactly for whom they’re voting come Nov.
Both Obama and McBush will be directly their efforts at undecideds and unaffiliated moderates.
In the real world its a slug fest, but likely over by late October (absentee and mail-ins). Net it will be fun to watch … political sport fucking.
This site allows folks to play politics, float ideas, throw out positions, argue for the heck of it, get snarky and have some fun too. But of course Pols said it best on a promoted bait diary:
That truth in labeling law has sure transformed America, hasn’t it?f
That makes me proud … I get to be nasty Drudge.
If only they could nationalize the media they’d have it tracking just perfect … oops that’s the fairness doctrine
I meant it for Go Blue, who claimed Drudge was his guiding light. But congratulations for having finally posted something that wasn’t utterly irrelevant, like your 456th citation of the national labor relations act,. or a calculated lie, like your claim that Bill Ritter supports right to work for less.
… but that’s getting into the weeds. I like the big picture message.
Under the handle Nancy L. Baldwin.
What else could explain the woeful level of her arguments?
The traditional practice of low-brow politics is to level absurd, patently false, charges close to election day, giving the target no time to refute them. This time, the alternative press…and even some main stream types, like Joe Klein at Time.com…have already begun piercing holes through the McCain narrative. At the same time, these attacks are costing McCain his long-time free ride with an adoring press corps (or should I say corpse).
Whether it’s near or far from electionday, no set of facts will persuade the Resentment Vote comprised of an essentially irrational segment of the population–almost all white lower-middle class–driven solely by its resentment of its own economic decline (and/or leveling with other population segments) and a tendency to blame…civil rights, global trade, and educated/sophisticated people who live on the both coasts for their perceived predicament. Whether this group will prevail this year as it did in 1980, ’84, ’88, 2000, and ’04 is the interesting question of the moment. Obviously McCain is betting big-time that the same old same old politics will still hold sway. Ironically it is precisely by electing a Republican that the fate of the Resentment Voters is sealed and indeed accelerated.
It seems to me that mostly the absurd low blows start in September or earlier, not October.
The Willie Horton Ad was released in September
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W…
The Swift Boat Ads were out May, August, and September, not October.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S…
I think this is because campaigns are both eager to go all in to prevent a “can’t win” narrative from developing and because it takes time for a impression to really take hold. It takes a sustained attack, not just one blow. The campaigns start things moving with a sharp unfair attack and then keep them moving in their direction with sustained blows. Such as the “flip flop” windsurfing thing in 2004. And round it out with a big scary one without substance such as “Wolves”.
Because it does not matter if the press refutes stories or not. The press can explain until blue in the face without changing people’s emotional reactions. Even for very well educated people emotion tends to trump reason. And it takes a while for an idea to take hold and then to be undone. Even if most people now agree the Swiftboat Ads were false that change of opinion happened too late for it to matter.
What we see right now is the week lag from the convention story lines. That has allowed McCain to pull even or a little ahead of Obama. What will happen next is in the hands of the candidates and fate.
A new poll today by PPP confirms Rasmussen’s post-convention results: Obama still holds a slight lead in the state.
Also, Daily Kos has now joined the ranks of tracking polls, and unlike Gallup or Rasmussen, they’re releasing their day-to-day numbers in addition to the 3-day rolling average tracking results. Research 2000 is doing the poll, and they’ve been very accurate with their polling of state races so far. Today’s results are the first from that nationwide poll: Obama 47, McCain 45, Nader and Barr each with 2%. McCain’s convention bump is beginning to fade according to the daily break-out.
Why can’t McCain hold onto a 10 pt lead? What’s happening? Are voting realizing McCain used poor judgement in picking a religious fundamentalist as his running mate instead of a person who could help him govern… let alone replace him?
Why can’t McCain close the deal?
Especially after looking at the results:
It shows that every political affiliation (Repubs, Independents, other) except Dems favor McCain, and the Dems that favor McCain outnumber the Repubs that favor Obama.
That makes me assume the sample was predominantly Dem, and, unless I’m wrong, I thought the registration numbers were basically even.
Democrats have added 2 million more voters (thanks to the primary battle – silver lining!) while Republicans have lost nearly 400,000.
No doubt the dems have picked up registered voters, but does the sample reflect the national numbers?
Kos Poll
Democrats 396 (36%)
Republicans 286 (26%)
Independents 319 (29%)
It matches what most polling outfits had just before the conventions – more or less. Each outfit asks different questions, resulting in different ID samples. CBS had 52-42-10, Gallup was at 35-26-38.
Remember, too – these are “self-ID” affiliations. Both the CBS and Gallup polls had significant party ID swings after the conventions, which some Liberal posters decided was a conspiracy… It’s not, it’s just a natural result of Republicans becoming more content with their party affiliation after the convention. Like the general convention bounce, it’s possible that the self-ID will settle back down now that the conventions are over.
Liberals believe in science and polling scientifically makes sense if you want to have the best information. Markos prides himself on getting the numbers right. If you want even more in depth coverage of polls take a peek at http://www.openleft.com. Chris Bowers is as liberal as they come but he is merciless at analyzing the numbers. It is better that dumb conservatives don’t take DailyKos polling seriously. If they did then they would freak out and start the racist ads tonight. I want them to be so cocky and confident that they don’t see it coming until it lands on their chin.
dKos is releasing all the numbers – more detail than the big guys, actually – and is using a nationally recognized pollster (Research 2000) to do the polling.
Poll analysts are sure to take a look at the numbers and methodology over the next few days, but the state-level polls dKos sponsored were completely in line with other polls.
BTW, Pollster.com’s analysis of “house effects” in various polling outfits notes that likely voter polls tend to show more Republican-weighted results; the dKos/R2K poll is a likely voter poll.
As is Drudge mine
… the backsliding started just after that. Maybe he’ll recover.
… well except the Biden comment about Hillary being a better President and VP and or…
Biden = Eagleton?
Palin advocates for War with Russia.
What she said according to CBS was that since Georgia is a member of NATO, if Russia attacked again, we might have to fight against Russia since this is what the NATO treaty requires. You want to repeal the NATO treaty, fine with me, but she’s right on the law and that’s what she was talking about. It’s not any different than if Russia attacked Great Britain. In NATO, it’s all the same.
You know there’s plenty of nasty stuff to say about Sarah Palin (liar, bad mother, liar, unqualified, liar, right-wing nut, liar, at pit bull with lipstick as she admitted, liar) why would you want to misquote and misread what she said. This just allows the other side to distract voters once again with “they’re being so mean to Sarah” (yes I know she has a great butt and I bet John just loves hugging a young beauty queen)and try to distract attention once again from the issues in this race which overwhelming favor Obama.
is NOT a member of NATO.
If they were, we would already be at war with Russia.
precisely because it could require the U.S. to get into a war there we couldn’t win without use of tactical nuclear weapons. And that, friends and neighbors, is one big Don’t Go There!
It would be like Russia signing a treaty with Mexico and then encourage Mexico to invade Texas because it once belonged to them.
Georgia attacked South Ossetia and Russia responded. NATO specifically does not require assistance if a country attacks, only if it is attacked first.
send Dmitry and Vlad’s talking points back to them.
South Ossetia is/was considered part of Georgia by the entire world, minus Russia. As such, it was a civil war and presumably NATO’s provisions would still hold.
I certainly hope that to be the case. As I said this could be all sorts of different things, though. Reading daily polls is like checking your stock every single day. Maddening and pointless. I figure in either one or two weeks I’ll revisit the polls and see how things are then.
And Pollster has the Daily Kos polling added in.
It should be great theater.
The difference between this year and 2004 is that the Obama campaign already has an organizer in my dinky county (Gilpin) organizing. We never saw, heard or met a Kerry organizer in 2004. The response has been big with people volunteering to make phone calls and walk the neighborhoods. Ridicule community organizers at your own risk. Obama sacrificed 527’s for local organizers. We’ll see which strategy (engage the people versus smear your opponent) gets out the most votes.
hint to the organizers: threaten via the campaign rumor mill that in Delaware they conducted drug testing by piss and hair samples.
you’ll need to add that positive results mean you DON’T get to advance Obama’s Colorado events and Homeland Security will be notified.
This is neighbors talking to neighbors, not stoned hippie activists from California talking to gun-totin’ Colorado Libertarians. (Just to clarify your implied characterization.)
I’m actually impressed with the turnout and involvement so far, and the campaign is going about the contacts quite smartly. Dismiss it at your party’s peril.
Are you projecting bro or do you understand how grass roots campaigning works?
Get out the vote (GOTV) efforts begin with identifying people who support your candidate. If those people need rides to the polls you arrange for the rides. If someone is unsure about who they are going to support but have questions, you answer the questions. The goal is to get as many Democrats as possible to vote and then all the independents who lean Democratic.
Thanks for the laugh about your stereotypes. My phone calls have been more along the lines of how badly George W Bush has screwed this country. My bet is if you called with your George Bush rah rah you wouldn’t make a good impression.
McCain=Bush
That is a pretty simple message to convey.
to make a joke about “grass” roots organizing. Beat him to it.
the last few nights on an unrelated issue and people can’t stop talking about how much Bush sucks, how much he has damaged this country, how they can’t wait until he is gone back to TX and how McCain is just the same warmed over.
Sarah Palin knows that most people don’t know what a small-town mayor does – and doesn’t do. So she has, so far, been allowed to show her best Rethug qualification – her ability to lie easily and completely without conscience – as she vomits forth her false and insulting claims of leadership credentials. (blue in NC’s diary :: :: )Other diarists on dKos are right: we need to shift our foucs back to Barack Obama and Joe Biden and the positive direction our country must turn toward if we as a people are to survive the next four years.
We need to shift our focus away from Sarah Palin’s daughter and her mooseburgers and her snowmobiles. But we can’t let her get away with whitewashing her governmental failures: failures so abject, so major, so complete, that the fact that she accomplished so much failure in a 12-year political career is amazing in and of itself.
If she’s going to use her stint as small-town mayor as a prop for her vice-presidential aspirations, then we need to remind the voters exactly what she did as mayor. Let’s use her own words against her. As she said in that verbal spew that passed for a “speech” last night, as mayor she was “like a community organizer” but with “actual responsibilities”.
The voters need to be reminded every day how badly she failed at exercising those responsibilities. Because we (YES, I said we)small-town mayors do have actual responsibilities. Chief among them is the responsibility to exercise fiscal responsibility with the citizens’ money. Sarah Palin has demonstrated complete failure at that basic responsibility. She took a town of ~7,000 people that was debt-free in 1996 and ran it over $18 million into debt by 2003.
And, while we theoretically do not have sole authority to do such things – only the town council has such authority – a bad and dishonest and self-serving mayor can, and frequently does, accomplish such glaring misfeasance by either intimidating of misleading her town council.
Sarah Palin has done both.
She implemented a 25% increase in the most regressive tax possible – the sales tax – to finance her hockey rink project. Yes, the Queen of the Common Man sure likes to stick it to the common man…every man, woman and child in Wasila is still paying for her self-promoting delusional expenditures. She was taking a $68,000 per year salary in 1996 for her job as mayor, and yet used additional taxpayer funds to hire an “administrator” to do her job for her while she enjoyed her “regal” salary for a sinecure job. Most mayors of towns less than 10,000, nationwide, are practically volunteers with salaries generally below $10,000 per year. In fact, the job of the Wasilla mayor, according to the city code, is as follows (this is typical for most small-town mayors). The Mayor shall preside at Council meeting, act as ceremonial head of the city and sign documents on the city’s behalf upon authorization by the council. Pretty easy work for $68,000/year, isn’t it? In 2002, Pailn used city employees (on the clock), city equipment, and city facilities to work on her campaign for Lt. Governor. I mean, come on…this is small-town government 101: Thou shalt not use municipal assets for personal campaign purposes. By 2003, the city of Wasilla owned $741,599 worth of office furniture and equipment (from the city’s own Comprehensive Annual Finance Report; I assume that is net of depreciation). Now that’s a whole lot o’ desks and staplers for a town of 7,000 folks. Well, the town only owned $342,449 worth of that stuff when Palin started in 1996. More than double! Word among locals has it that she had her office lavishly redecorated at least twice while mayor. So much for her stupid story about selling the governor’s jet on ebay.
After our almost-sacred fiduciary responsibilty, we mayors are responsible for ensuring the safety of the people who have entrusted us with the office. Palin placed the financial success of campaign-donor cronies above public safety. She opposed an ordinance changing the closing time of bars in Wasilla from 5:00 AM to 3:00 AM. The Wasilla police chief at the time, Irl Stambaugh, supported the change as a public-safety measure. Palin, who had accepted numerous campaign contributions from local bar owners and the liquor lobby, fired Stambaugh immediately upon taking office.
Palin opposed adopting basic building codes within the city. In 1997, she broke a tie in a city council vote to kill building codes. Even some area homebuilders supported the building codes.The bottom line is: yes, we small-town mayors do have responsibilities…and Palin demonstrated a complete lack of ability or inclination to handle these limited responsibilities.
Meanwhile, I’d be the first to say that I don’t consider my own experience as a small-town mayor to in any way qualify me to serve as vice president of the United States, much less serve in a situation where the president is a doddering old man bordering on dementia who may well cause invocation of the 25th amendment.We preside over council meetings…the VP theoretically presides over the Senate. There’s a world of difference.Our responsibilities are limited. Very limited.And, we’re not a mere heartbeat away from the US presidency. These United States of America do not need one in the office of the vice president.Palin is now, in true Rethug fashion, attempting to distort people’s concerns with her lack of experience, accusing us of “insulting small towns” and being “elitist”. Nothing could be further from the truth. We’re not criticizing small towns; I’ve lived in one and serve as mayor in one and love and respect small towns. What we are criticizing is, first: Palin’s lack of national experience and, secondher complete failures at exercising responsibility and integrity during what limited “executive” experience she has.
She is the worst of both worlds: she is corrupt and incompetent. The voters need to know that.
ANYONE CAN READ A SPEACH WRITTEN BY OTHERS. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH PEOPLE. IF ANYTHING HAPPENDS TO MCCAIN DO YOU THINK THAT WITH PALIN’S TRACK RECORD THAT SHE CAN LEAD OUR GREAT NATION?
paragraphs anyone?
that’s all Ive got…
Nobody is going to read condensed cut-n-paste posts. Love your passion but hate the post. Say it in your own words or link to the article. I’m not going to spend my time reading it even if it is true.
Original post can be found here.
… Palin’s probably a real c**t too, right?
since he’s the one calling women around him cunts.
I don’t support Palin.
But this response is a bit of a mess. No, more than that. It is badly written. It probably hurts more than it helps.
It not only is badly written, but I thin it is bad strategy as well. Focus on what the McCain/Palin campaign is doing now. They’re talking about her rather than about America. They don’t talk about their plan because on the issues they lose due the McCain plan being just the same as Bush with “I promise I’ll actually do it this time. Really, trust me.”
Matthew