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September 13, 2008 03:58 AM UTC

GALLUP: Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks Competitive

  • 10 Comments
  • by: Stringer

Bottom Line

The new USA Today/Gallup measurement of generic ballot preferences for Congress casts some doubt on the previously assumed inevitability of the Democrats’ maintaining control of Congress.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110…

PRINCETON, NJ — A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress.

This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain’s improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey.

Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

Comments

10 thoughts on “GALLUP: Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks Competitive

    1. And it’s not like we’re resolving any of those issues.

      No one has really seen any difference in how things are run since the Democrats have taken control of Congress.  They ran on ending the war, we are still in Iraq.  They ran on restoring fiscal responsibility, there’s more pork out there than ever.  They talked about ethics and civility, and they aren’t looking good there, look at sweetheart mortgage deals, tax fraud, and perjury convictions.  Add in the inaction on energy prices and the apparent lack of concern as to what those prices mean to the working class, and you get a shift in the polls.

      Then factor in what has happened since the conventions.  Adding Sarah Palin to the ticket has energized the Republican base well beyond what anyone was expecting this cycle.  The Democratic response to her has probably done more to boost the desire to vote on the right side than anything she or Mcain could possibly have done on their own.

      It is not hard to understand the shift, you just have to open your eyes and stop exclusively drinking you own sides kool-aid.

      1. Every time I am in the room with them, or see a press confernce, I just don’t get anything that says leadership. There are so many dynamic people on the dem side – why choose Pelosi and Reid?

        1. he was a fantastic a Minority Leader and Whip.  He was confrontational, an “obstructionist” as repubs loved to whine about.  He got things done.  As Min Whip he was a lot better than Daschle at times IMO.

          I think it made sense for him to follow Daschle after he lost in 04, but he really has been pretty bad the last 2 years…

      2. We dems could move stuff out of the house, but it took a boatload of effort and would pass by a couple of votes as the Dems were not all marching in lockstep.

        But the Senate was essentially tied and with cloture that was where bills would go to die. And if by some chance they passed, there was Bush to veto them.

        The only real power we had was that the house could decline to pass legislation. Not decline enabling bills because closing down the government is a loser. But we could stop things like FISA.

        Except, we didn’t even do that. But I think the big problem is most people don’t understand how limited the power has been for the Dems these last 2 years.

        1. Pelosi wouldn’t allow much in the way of compromise with much of the legislation, making it easy for Republicans in the Senate to get the numbers necessary to block it.  Reid was stuck with what was coming out of the House.

          But one of the biggest rallying cries used by the Democrats was that to end the war in Iraq.  If support for the war was as low as we were being told, it should have been relatively painless in early 2007 to let the White House know that no new funding would be forthcoming to do anything but begin a pullout.

          That didn’t happen, they pretty much gave Bush everything he needed to keep operations going.

          This allowed them to keep attacking Bush on the war they kept funding.

  1. has cometh to set us free from pork barrel politics, from bridges to nowhere, from the mooses who terrorize our children… Palin is exciting the far-right base while attracting crowds between 8,000 and 23,000 (depending on who you ask).

    Senator John McCain has drawn some of the biggest crowds of his presidential campaign since adding Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to his ticket on Aug. 29. Now officials say they can’t substantiate the figures McCain’s aides are claiming.

    McCain aide Kimmie Lipscomb told reporters on Sept. 10 that an outdoor rally in Fairfax City, Virginia, drew 23,000 people, attributing the crowd estimate to a fire marshal…

    In recent days, journalists attending the rallies have been raising questions about the crowd estimates with the campaign. In a story on Sept. 11 about Palin’s attraction for some Virginia women voters, Washington Post reporter Marc Fisher estimated the crowd to be 8,000, not the 23,000 cited by the campaign.

    They can’t even tell the truth about the size of the crowds at events, but what’s that matter since their both the original mavericks!  

  2. The Colorado Springs event was reported as 8,000, but later it was released that OVER 13,000 had gone through security checks. These numbers are always questioned and revised.  It happens on both sides.  

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