President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
September 20, 2008 05:29 PM UTC
26 Comments
He should be cruising ahead of Schaffer at this point, given all of Schaffer and Wadhams’ missteps and the general trends in Colorado and nationwide. He should have figures like Mark Warner against Jim Gilmore in Virginia.
I haven’t seen a single, memorable and hard-hitting Udall ad. The only memorable line in this election so far – memorable, albeit laughably pathetic, is “Boulder Liberal”: a line that Wadhams must be saying in his sleep or while making love at this point.
Udall is playing “rope-a-dope.” He’d better watch out. That strategy didn’t always work for Muhammad Ali either.
Why is the Udall campaign so shy about ads featuring things like Schaffer’s Mariana Islands record, his claim that their system ought to be used as a model for a guest worker program here, the forced abortion issue, etc.? Schaffer sure isn’t shy about spinning any little thing he can find into the nastiest scenarios possible against Udall.
And why isn’t the Udall campaign running ads directly countering Schaffer accusations? As far as ground game goes, I haven’t seen much there either. Have received more material from just about every other candidate than from Udall. It’s his to lose and if he does it will be nobody’s fault but his own.
Third parties have run twice as much negative advertising against Udall in the past month than they did against Strickland during the entire cycle. And that was the previous record, about $4 million. So far the tally against Udall is $10.5 million and climbing.
Third-parties have spent less than half that attacking Schaffer or supporting Udall.
The best thing Udall can do with his money right now is reinforce his own positives from the onslaught and, where practical, offer contrasts with Schaffer. But to get off the message of promoting himself and onto attacking Schaffer risks letting his own positives going into freefall.
Obama has put out plenty of negative ads in the past week or so and his numbers are going up. People SAY they hate negative ads, then let them influence their vote every time.
He’s buying advertising at the lowest possible rate and he’s raising $65 million a month.
You’re comparing a pickup truck to a semi truck.
That’s why they’re run. That’s why 527s use their resources on them. I like the positive ads. But I don’t want to be looking back in mid-November saying, “well, we lost, but at least we ran a really positive campaign.” The notion of a Sen. Schaffer is too frightening. There are also ways to run ads that are positive pro-candidate pieces that also happen to bash the open effectively.
That’s their traditional role. The candidate educates the public about him or herself, contrasts him or herself with the opposition, and the 3rd parties run the pink lady ads.
Udall is currently running a contrast ad, and has run two others that both defend his record and attack Bob Schaffer.
From the DSCC especially. Also an occasional ad from VoteVets and LCV.
The third-party anti-Udall ads seem to be decreasing in frequency as well, except for the anti-union ones.
And I don’t think I’ve seen an ad from Schaffer in weeks.
Schaffer has two ads running in heavy rotation, one that’s been on since last week comparing their “records” on taxes and the other that started earlier this week shows Bob visiting some kind of lab in a blue lab coat (NAFF, perhaps?).
The anti-Udall ads are also coming fast and furious, outspending the anti-Schaffer ads by 2:1, which is the ratio they’ve held since spring. There are at least four anti-Udall ads running now and two anti-Schaffer ads. The frequency for both from outside groups is increasing, not decreasing.
But Thilly’s right, all those Abramoff-Marianas-Kurdish oil-Bill Orr ads had better start showing up soon, votes will start being cast in just over two weeks.
Where do you see all these Schaffer ads? I mostly watch MSNBC and Comedy Central.
And I thought the DSCC ad has already been talking about the Kurdish oil.
Schaffer isn’t on cable right now, and he probably wouldn’t be on those two channels much in any case.
A few ads have mentioned the Schaffer-Aspect-Kurd deal (also including the Vote Vets ad), but nothing like the onslaught we’ve been promised.
but I don’t pay close enough attention to whether they are all Schaffer or indie 527 ads. My favorite is the one where you can tell Udall is REALLY bad by the spooky discordant piano. It sounds like he just might eat your children.
They are all 3rd-party ads. Schaffer’s run two ads with only moderate buys, comprising about 10% of the total pro-Schaffer/anti-Udall barrage.
Just on broadcast though, no cable yet unless it’s reserved by the RSCC on his behalf.
And the way you can tell if the anti-Udall ads are from Schaffer is Schaffer’s smiling face in the ads — he’s walking around gesticulating wildly in his own ads.
The one with scowling Udall is hilarious. (That’s an RSCC ad.) They really had to scour the archives to find those pictures.
when the opponent is that bad,it’s easier to run a milktoast campaign.
Of course, this could also be a foreshadowing of how Senator Udall will legislate – nothing too bold, don’t rock the boat – he and Ken S will be like 2 peas in a pod.
Yeah I’m voting for him because Schaffer is an abomination but I’m not holding my breath for visionary leadership.
National Renewable Electricity Standard
He’s been working for it for 12 years. Made it a reality in Colorado in 2004, and finally passed it through the House last year, where it died in the Senate by one vote. Had he been there instead of Allard, we’d be on the road to energy independence.
Pretty bold and visionary if you ask me.
I had a much more favorable impression of him 4 yrs ago than now, particularly on energy and environment. It seems like since he committed to running for Senate 2 yrs ago (and stepped out of the friendly confines of CD-2) he has back-pedaled on multiple issues to blend in with the crowd, most notably Iraq war funding and withdrawal timelines, and FISA amendments.
His latest position on oil shale development (it’s OK to do it, as long as development is done “responsibly,”) also looks like he’s setting up for a “bipartisan compromise’ – ie cave-in – on fossil fuel extraction without compensatory limits on carbon emissions, just as the Dems are likely to cave on the offshore drilling ban.
Maybe that’s the reality-that absent a non-carbon fuel source in place that will keep our economy in continuous expansion, we are going to extract every ounce of fossil fuel in any form, no matter the environmental cost, so that Udall’s approach to at least keep putting funds into renewable programs while we keep drilling is the only politically attainable solution.
Maybe he’s as good as it gets, especially with the pro-development forces here in Colorado, and my expectations are unrealistic, but I don’t get the feeling that he has my back on any issue. But like I said, I’m still voting for him.
Very well stated – thank you.
Udall has changed who he is to get more power. Be yourself dude.
…I’m not sure if that fits into your Good Udall/Bad Udall cartoon.
And the RES, once again, is in the energy bill the House just passed (where it will go to the Senate to die again). The first time it passed was 2007. So I’m not sure what 4 years ago has to do with anything.
The 3rd party ads have blasted him big time and they’ve had no effect. The Republicans don’t have much money this race and I think they will shortly view any money for Schaffer here as a waste and go elsewhere.
What will drive them off is that their lop-sided attack didn’t make much difference. Schaffer is to odious for ads to help him.
With a less odious candidate, this would be a serious horse race. So I guess we can thank the far-right wing of the Rs for that.
Knock furiously on wood somewhere quick!
But it is interesting that they are blowing all this money to no great effect.
I guess it’s understandable when the arguments are Boulder Librul vs. scandal-plagued crook.
On the other hand, as much as I’d like to see a full-bore $10 million onslaught agains Schaffer, there’s an overload phenomenon that the Schaffer side may have breached.
There comes a certain point in the attacks when people stop believing them. At this point there’s hardly a dictator in the world that Udall hasn’t been compared with in an attack ad. People don’t believe them anymore.
If an unfocused barrage highlighting Schaffer’s dozens of questionable dealings comes along, people are likely to stop believing them as well. I think that’s why the focus has been almost entirely on Schaffer and Big Oil and they haven’t waded much into Abramoff, his bizarre voting record, NAFF/Orr, etc.
Personally I’d like to see them pivot the attacks to Schaffer’s nutty record, like voting against the 9/11 commission and voting against strengthening cockpit doors and voting against the education bills that he himself authored because he didn’t like an amendment.
Abramoff and the other Schaffer associates currently keeping beds warm in prison might be better suited for direct mail.
http://www.markudall.com/conte…
Seems to be new since last time I dropped by. It rips to shreds the bogus talking points in these ads as well s some of the crap Schaffer says at his campaign stops.
Is that a young Bob Schaffer scribbling on the blackboard?