January 26, 2016 03:53 PM UTC

Mike Coffman's Weak Q4 Doesn't Inspire Confidence

• 8 Comments
• by: Colorado Pols

Numbers are in for the all-important CD-6 race in the 4th quarter of 2015:

BREAKING: @coffmanforco raises $313K, @MorganLCarroll rpts $277K in Q4. His COH: $1M, hers: $452K https://t.co/hyLCclTMz5 #copolitics #coleg

— Ernest Lee Luning (@eluning) January 26, 2016

We can start with the obvious, incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Coffman did outraise his Democratic opponent Morgan Carroll, and has a hefty war chest in the bank. With that said, $313,000 is significantly short of objective expectations for Coffman in this race, which directly helps Carroll’s perception of viability–even though Carroll’s number isn’t really spectacular either. Carroll doesn’t need to outraise Coffman to compete in this race — not with so much third party support coming her way — and $277,000 is plenty with which to move forward.

So the question then turns back to Coffman. In Q4 of 2013, the last cycle-equivalent period, Coffman raised almost $70,000 more than he did in Q4 2015.

The numbers look worse for Coffman when you look at recent history. In Q2 2015, Coffman turned in his worst fundraising quarter in four years. In other words, Coffman has significantly underperformed in 2 out of the last 3 fundraising cycles.

There’s some excepting that can be generously made for the increasing role of outside money in congressional races, but at a certain level you just can’t spin the bottom line.

These numbers tell the story of Coffman’s continuing vulnerability.