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February 02, 2016 10:35 AM UTC

The Colorado Pols Iowa Caucus Prediction Contest

  • 42 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

BIG UPDATE: And the winner is…

“flatiron”

It was a close call between “flatiron,” “itlduso.” and “Mr. Toodles.” Both “itlduso” and “Mr. Toodles” had the top four GOP finishers in order (no entry selected the top 5 GOP candidates in correct order), but “flatiron” was remarkably close in projecting the percentages at the top of the field for both Parties.

Congratulations, “flatiron.” Email us with your mailing address (alva@coloradopols.com), and the Jim Gilmore button will soon be yours to cherish forever.

—–

You could win this Jim Gilmore for President button!
You could win this campaign button!

It’s finally here! The Iowa caucuses are today! Hurray! Huzzah!

To celebrate, Colorado Pols is running its own “Iowa Caucus Prediction” contest. The winner will receive a Jim Gilmore for President campaign button, just like the one in the image at right.

To enter the contest: Copy the sample “ballot” below, insert your predictions, and paste it back into the comments section. Please don’t forget to include the percentage of the vote that you are predicting for each candidate — vote percentages will be used as the tiebreaker to determine a winner.

If you need some rough numbers for comparison, here’s the results from the 2008 Iowa caucuses. *Entries must be entered into the comments section of this post by 5:00 pm today in order to be eligible to win the totally-rad Gilmore button.

REPUBLICANS
1) Candidate Name, XX%
2) Candidate Name, XX%
3) Candidate Name, XX%
4) Candidate Name, XX%
5) Candidate Name, XX%

DEMOCRATS
1) Candidate Name, XX%
2) Candidate Name, XX%

 

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42 thoughts on “The Colorado Pols Iowa Caucus Prediction Contest”

  1. REPUBLICANS
    1) The Esteemly Exalted Donald Trump, Sir Donald, Donald the Most Huge 28.5 %
    2) Canadian Cruz, 18.0%
    3) "Marco"…? 15.5%
    4) There is the establishment lane the anti-lane and that other guy's lane, 08.001%
    5) One of the other Jesus charlatans, or Dr. Carson 06.66%

    DEMOCRATS
    1) Bernie "It's like they don't care that Chris Matthews reminds them he's a SOCIALIST!! Did you hear, did I tell you, do you know?? Bernie” Sanders, SOCIALIST , 55%
    2) Hillary 08 16: 40%

     

  2. My prediction:  the Old Bolshevik takes down Lady Macbeth, 52% to 48% after O'Malley's 3% realize they are non-viable and switch. Sanders gets most of O'Malley's caucus-goers.

    In the GOP, Cruz takes first place (with 28%) if only because the religious nuts turn out in full force and Trumpistas don't understand how caucuses work. Trump still gets 25%. Rubio finishes in third with 15%. JEB! announces his withdrawal tomorrow.

  3. I think I'll take the current polling numbers and apply a little projection of the trend lines for each, giving me the following guesses:

    REPUBLICANS
    1) Donald Trump, 32%
    2) Ted Cruz, 24%
    3) Marco Rubio, 18%
    4) Ben Carson, 5%
    5) Jeb Bush, 3%
    DEMOCRATS
    1) Hillary Clinton, 48%
    2) Bernie Sanders, 48%

    Hopefully, Iowa will dispose of some of the trash on the GOP side, with New Hampshire cleaning out the gutters with the rest next week (except for Trump, Cruz and Rubio, unfortunately)

  4. REPUBLICANS
    1) Ted Cru-azy 28%
    2) The Donald, 24%
    3) Rube-ster, 13%
    4) Randy Paul, 12%
    5) ExoAtmosphere Carson, 10%

    DEMOCRATS
    1) Madame President, 50.3%
    2) Don Quixote, 49.7%

     

    1. Please do not call Clinton Madame President. She will never be one.

      The only person earning the name President of the United States is Bernie Sanders.

  6. Party of Hate© Now with 30% more White(ning) Power!
    Trump™ – 30%
    Cruz, eh – 22%
    Rubio – 15%
    Who Cares – 33%

    Democrats
    Clinton – 49%
    O'Malley – 6%
    Sanders – 45%

  7. REPUBLICANS
    1) Donald Trump, 49%
    2) Ted Cruz, 24%
    3) Mark Rubio, 11%
    4) Ben Carson, 5%
    5) Rand Paul, 3%

    6) Jeb! Bush, 2%

    7) Mike Huckabee 2%

    8) John Kaisch 2%

    9) Carly Fiorina 1%

    10) Chris Christie 1%

    DEMOCRATS
    1) Hillary Clinton, 51%
    2) Bernie Sanders, 47%

    3) Mike O'Malley, 2%

     

  9. The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. 

    The results above (not my entry) is the final Des Moines Register poll which has a long track record of mostly accurate predictions.

  10. How did Pols ever get their hands on a Gilmore button? I heard that only 10 were minted and eight of those are in the possession of members of his immediate family.

  11. My prediction:

    Whoever wins the Republican Cornfield Caucus won't be the Presidential nominee:   99.999%

    (Sometimes,  past performance IS indicative of future results …)

    1. So true about Iowa…..

      George H.W. Bush won in '80 and Reagan was the nominee

      Bob Dole won in '88 and Daddy Bush was the nominee

      Huck won in '08 and McCain was the nominee

      Frothy Mix Santorum won in '12 and Mittens was the nominee.

    2. Good prediction. At least in normal times. In these times? I'm not even going to try to predict anything except a small HRC win in Iowa. The GOP situation is too unprecedented for much confidnce in predictions these days. 

  13. Here you go:

    REPUBLICANS 
    1) Donald Trump, 33% 
    2) Ted Cruz, 28% 
    3) Marco Rubio, 14% 
    4) Ben Carson, 2% 
    5) Jeb Bush, 1% 

    DEMOCRATS 
    1) Hillary Clinton, 49% 
    2) Bernie Sanders, 47%

  16. I did read 538, which predicts Trump and Clinton as the winners. Nevertheless, I'm going with:

    REPUBLICANS
    1) Trump 26%
    2) Cruz, 25%
    3) Rubio, 18%
    4) Carson 8%
    5) Paul, 5%

    DEMOCRATS
    1) Sanders,49%
    2) Clinton, 47%

    3) O'Malley (who?) 3%

     

  19. REPUBLICANS

    Donald Trump (R) 27%

    Ted Cruz (R) 20%

    Marco Rubio (R) 17%

    Ben Carson (R) 7%

    John Kasich (R) 4%

    other bozos get no delegates, split 25% of the vote

    DEMOCRATS

    1) Clinton, 47% – more delegates, fewer votes than Sanders

    2) Sanders, 50%

    3) O’Malley, no delegates, 3% of vote

    1. Bernie's relying on college kids in college towns. You need a wider operation in Iowa to win it. For him to get 62% of delegates would be as if Clinton had only a passing presence in the state, and for him to get 62% of the vote before delegates would be unprecedented. Clinton's got the operation and the geographic advantage, so I gotta go with her. 

      Also, O'Malley breaking 5% would be surprising…17% would change everything. 

    2. Weren't you the one who only 15 months ago predicted that the Dems would keep the U.S. Senate and retake the U.S. House?

      Your predictions in the past have been a little off the mark, Dust Puppy…… 

  21. Iowa isn't a good indicator of the ultimate winning candidates, but given the fleeting success Cruz and Sanders have garnered tonight, it does beg the question for some of us:

    Who would have won the race between Barry Goldwater and George McGovern?

    1. I think the night's big winner on the R side is Rubio. The establishment hates Cruz and dreads Trump. Rubio is finishing only a point behind Trump and a few behind Cruz. He can make a case that he's the only one who can possibly save the party from being stuck with Trump or Cruz and the supporters of the no hoper candidates should rally to him.  

      2. Yep, if Rubio manages to beat expectations in New Hampshire (Cruz having successfully lowered expectations and focusing on South Carolina), we could see a rush of support come his way next week and Jeb! Getting the heave-ho from the big money guys.

        I'd expect a see saw battle between them, with Trump as the spoiler making the race highly unpredictable.

  22. For a video of caucus drama and vote counting see this from Polk County.

    My Bernie-loving nephew posted this on FB with a title of "Clinton voter fraud in Polk County".

    My nephew says:
    For anyone who doesn’t quite see what happened, she (Liz, the precinct chair and a Clinton supporter) admits on camera that she never completed a second recount of everyone in her caucus. She just counted the new people (who might have left or joined Bernie) to the first count.
    Then, she is asked if she did a full recount and she says “no” meaning that we’ll never know where that 4-5 split should have gone.

    Those who are wiser in the ways of caucasians can weigh in on whether this is miscounting..

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