Ok, lets say you are a senate candidate named Bob Schaffer and you’re losing by 10 points. Well here’s some news from the Secretary of State that tells you it’s all over:
Active Registered Voters | 2,636,834 | |
Number of Mail-In Ballots Received | 1,112,782 | 42.2% |
Number of Early Voting Ballots Cast | 365,054 | 13.8% |
So 56% of active registered voters. As not all active voters actually vote, over 56% of the votes are in. So, to win, Bob Schaffer needs to beat Mark Udall by over 20% – which would be a flip of 30 points. We’re at the point where Mark Udall could cut an ad endorsing Bob Schaffer – and Schaffer would still lose.
The Senate race is over. Once we see the final results on a number of other races, we will learn that many of them were over by this point. And a few are so close that we need to do everything we can over the next 3 days – Obama, Amendments 58 & 59, etc.
Remember, a team that is kicking ass in a game wins by continuing to outplay their opponent. If they sit back and coast, then they lose. We can still lose this puppy. So every moment the campaign offices are open – get down there and volunteer.
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The early voters this year comprise 68.8% of the total vote in 2004. The partisan breakdown of voters so far is 37.7% Democratic, 35.9% Republican (leaving only 26.4% “other”).
A chart of early voting for the major counties (h/t Panglozz on Daily Kos):
Finally, a not terribly reliable sub-sample: PPP’s polling indicates that, of their polling sample, 65% had already voted and among that sub-sample, Obama held a significant lead, which I won’t repeat here because as noted above a winning team plays through to the very end and doesn’t need to be misled by optimistic poll data. (More significant than the turnout numbers indicate…)
Its one of the reasons the last few weeks have actually been less negative than the beginning of October.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/166680