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February 20, 2016 04:35 PM UTC

Clinton Wins Nevada, Trump Takes South Carolina, Jeb! Drops Out

  • 117 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
Jeb! shows how many states he thinks he will win.
Jeb! shows how many states he thinks he will win.

UPDATE #2: Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio remain in a close battle for second place in South Carolina. Meanwhile, Jeb! Bush has thrown in the towel after performing poorly in S.C.; Bush announced this evening that he is ending his campaign for President.

No more Jeb!

From now on, just Jeb:(

—–

UPDATE: The Associated Press and CNN are among the media outlets that have called South Carolina for Donald Trump. It looks like a tight race for second place.

—–

Hillary Clinton has defeated Bernie Sanders in the Democratic caucus in Nevada, though the final margin could leave Clinton with just a handful of extra delegates than Sanders.

"His Hairness" could deliver some knockout blows with strong results tonight.
“His Hairness” dominates in S.C.

Can Donald Trump land another knockout blow in South Carolina? Things are getting nasty in the lower Carolina, and as Politico reports, the GOP could be down to a “Final 3” after tonight:

Many in the party’s upper echelons have grown impatient with their splintered field of center-right, mainstream contenders and say they intend to put pressure on whichever candidate falls short of third place on Saturday night to quit.

“South Carolina will reshape the race,” said Scott Reed, the chief political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “Only the top three finishers will have a true narrative to continue down the road.”…

…“It is clear there are three tickets coming out of South Carolina,” said Phil Cox, a former Republican Governors Association executive director. “Whether there is a fourth ticket will depend on the gap between third and fourth place. It will become very difficult for anything beyond a close fourth-place finish to be able to keep putting gas in the tank and attract the kind of media attention necessary to keep going.”

Polls close in South Carolina at 7:00 pm EST, so we should be hearing about early results pretty soon. Discuss amongst yourselves…

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117 thoughts on “Clinton Wins Nevada, Trump Takes South Carolina, Jeb! Drops Out”

  1. Smokin Joe Frazier had nothing on Hillary Clinton.  Our girl is at her best when she is knocked to the canvas only to pick herself up and fight even harder.  You go girl, you did us proud today!smiley

        1. It's not free stuff just as it isn't free stuff in Europe where people get that stuff by paying more in taxes while not needeing to come up with more in addition to taxes to have the things that make for a good life, like education, healthcare, childcare, secure retirement, etc. for considerably less than what it takes for an American to afford those things.

          The problem is Bernie doesn't seem to be interested in or prepared on the subject of the nuts and bolts. He's a big idea guy and I think his limitations in the practical realm are becoming increasingly obvious in every debate and townhall.

          I would have loved to be in love with Bernie. Please don't tell my 30 something gung ho Bernie fan son I'm….. not so much anymore. But he just isn't credible as leader who can even come close to delivering once you get beyond generalities.

          1. The problem is Bernie doesn't seem to be interested in or prepared on the subject of the nuts and bolts.

            As Barbara Bush once so eloquently said, "Math is hard." 

            1. Nonsense, FU and BC. Anyone who wants to research the details of Sanders' tax proposals or health care plan can find them on his website. I will admit that Sanders is not as good an "explainer" in person as former President Clinton; neither is Hillary Clinton, and her proposals are much vaguer than those of Sanders. 

              For example, here are some specific proposals from his page on income and wealth inequality:

              Demanding that the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share in taxes. As president, Sen. Sanders will stop corporations from shifting their profits and jobs overseas to avoid paying U.S. income taxes. He will create a progressive estate tax on the top 0.3 percent of Americans who inherit more than $3.5 million. He will also enact a tax on Wall Street speculators who caused millions of Americans to lose their jobs, homes, and life savings.

              Increasing the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 an hour by 2020. In the year 2015, no one who works 40 hours a week should be living in poverty.

              Putting at least 13 million Americans to work by investing $1 trillion over five years towards rebuilding our crumbling roads, bridges, railways, airports, public transit systems, ports, dams, wastewater plants, and other infrastructure needs.

              Reversing trade policies like NAFTA, CAFTA, and PNTR with China that have driven down wages and caused the loss of millions of jobs. If corporate America wants us to buy their products they need to manufacture those products in this country, not in China or other low-wage countries.

              Creating 1 million jobs for disadvantaged young Americans by investing $5.5 billion in a youth jobs program. Today, the youth unemployment rate is off the charts. We have got to end this tragedy by making sure teenagers and young adults have the jobs they need to move up the economic ladder.

              Fighting for pay equity by signing the Paycheck Fairness Act into law. It is an outrage that women earn just 78 cents for every dollar a man earns.

              Making tuition free at public colleges and universities throughout America. Everyone in this country who studies hard should be able to go to college regardless of income.

              Expanding Social Security by lifting the cap on taxable income above $250,000. At a time when the senior poverty rate is going up, we have got to make sure that every American can retire with dignity and respect.

              Guaranteeing healthcare as a right of citizenship by enacting a Medicare for all single-payer healthcare system. It’s time for the U.S. to join every major industrialized country on earth and provide universal healthcare to all.

              Requiring employers to provide at least 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave; two weeks of paid vacation; and 7 days of paid sick days. Real family values are about making sure that parents have the time they need to bond with their babies and take care of their children and relatives when they get ill.

              Enacting a universal childcare and prekindergarten program. Every psychologist understands that the most formative years for a human being is from the ages 0-3. We have got to make sure every family in America has the opportunity to send their kids to a high quality childcare and pre-K program.

              Making it easier for workers to join unions by fighting for the Employee Free Choice Act. One of the most significant reasons for the 40-year decline in the middle class is that the rights of workers to collectively bargain for better wages and benefits have been severely undermined.

              In addition, Sanders has been very specific about what his tax plan would do – essentially, raise  The conservative Motley Fool financial site even says that  the top tier (earning $10 million or more) would be taxed at 52%. This is only two tax brackets higher than Hillary Clinton's top tax bracket of 43.6% on income of 5 million and above.

              I'm running out of steam, facing tomorrow's workday, and realizing that nobody criticizing Sanders will actually take the trouble to educate themselves on his plan, or of Clinton's for that matter. Journalists and bloggers alike are intellectually lazy, and much prefer to keep repeating the same old talking points " Hillary can get it done! She's more practical!" "Sanders is just a dreamer!" etc.

              1. Leaving aside the lamentable lack of ways to pay for these utopian schemes, some are simply destructive.  His relentless protectionism would echo the Smoot Hawley tariff and roll back six decades of ptogress in freerer trade.  Any first semester economics student knows the law of comparative Advantage fitst voiced by David Ricarrdo.  Begger thy neighbor policies may have demagogic appeal but don't work because they cant work.  Only the ALaskan coffee growers association will benefit from Bernie's protectionist policies.  

              2. Few voters go to candidate's websites, Mama and the "details"you list, if those are what he has on his website, are mainly goals and aspirations, not details on the "how". They are vague enough to make it very easy for people who share Voyageur’s view to say exactly what Voyageur says. He needs a much better prepared plan to present to the scepticaI than that.

                I will say I was relieved, though, when I realized the FU stands for Frank Underwood.wink

                2. Hillary Clinton has very similar "plans", i.e. goals and aspirations, with even  fewer details. Presidents have to fight the battles they fight with the allies and foes they get on January 21, 2017. That's what Obama did.  Candidates would be foolish to say, "I'm going to do a, b, and c by executive order, and I'm going to lobby Congress for D, and nominate cabinet officials to regulate E."

                  I think that Sanders could do a better job 'splainin'. It would be nice if he had the Bill Clinton gift of boiling complex policy down to 30 second sound bites. But his plans are solid and well-thought out. Sanders also has a record of strategically crafting alliances to get good law passed. He is known as the "amendment king".

                  Voyageur, your mind is already made up, and you don't want to be confused with facts as far as how Sanders plans to pay for these policies. On the economics you quote, I have no idea who Smoot Hawley or David Riccardo are, or what they claim. Instead of name dropping and appeals to authority, explain why a less protectionist policy would keep American jobs from going overseas.

    2. You mean Frazier in 1981? Because that's actually a really apt comparison. I mean, she won more delegates last night. But going from a 25-point lead to winning by 5% is more of a win by decision than a knockout, eh?

        1. Many of those who are loyal to Bernie and those who think HRC presents the better choice at this juncture coexist with civility here, MADCO. We even sometimes agree with one another on some points, pro and con, for each. No need to be careful, Robb. Most of us know how to have this discussion without being assholes.

            1. Not at all. Just telling Robb he can ignore MADCO's warning. MADCO hasn't been around for a while so might not be aware that most of us are discussing the Benie v HRC thing pretty reasonably. A notable exception or two come to mind but that's it.

        2. Definitely. a decision, but the pundits picked her to lose.  Now, for a knockout, I'm looking to South Carolina, followed by Super Tuesday.  In the fall, I want to switch strategy and use Ali's rope a dope.   Any of the possible Republican candidates qualifies as a dope, so all we need to do is provide the rope.  In Trump's case, I want a big beautiful rope.

          1. Well, for starters, with all the top R candidates calling each other liars several times a day, the Dem candidate can put together some ads that are just montages of the others calling whoever wins the nomination a liar and showing how all the accusations are perfectly accurate. Then their can be another class of ads with montages in the case of either Trump, Rubio or Cruz, showing the candidate, in his own words right out there in public or on TV, being for whole bunches of things before they were against them. Or for them in front of some audiences and against them in front of others.

            None of these ads have to feature any Dem saying anything mean, just the other Rs or the candidate himself being a huge liar/ hypocrite straight out of his own mouth. They're writing these ads every day for whoever wins the Dem nod. Trumps fans may not care how much he lies or changes his positions and denies he ever held any others but he needs to get way beyond his core fans to win a general.

              1. The Udall campaign was all about a single issue that wasn't tops on the list of most voters, not even the voters it was supposed to be targeting. It also featured an always scowling, scolding Udall. It was one note, a note that would have been fine among others. 

                I'm not proposing that this be the entire campaign. A line up of Rs pointing out the R candidate's many lies and having the candidate himself demonstrate that you can't trust a word he says, all the insults coming from fellow Rs, not a scowling Dem candidate, would be a nice piece of an ad campaign.

                1. The issue that got communicated to me was that Con-man Cory was lying. While true and demonstrable, it's expected behavior for politicians and therefore a non-issue. The South Carolina debate proved that any childish behavior by a Republican candidate is only a campaign positive.

                  While I agree with you that pointing out lies and tantrums by these guys is a tactic that has to be used, I don't think it will matter much. After all, outright bigotry, religious intolerance and support for torturing our captured soldiers have only increased their appeal.

                  1. First, the obsession with Gardner lying in general has been a mostly post election phenomenon since he quickly showed his true colors. Udall spent most of the camapign hammering away at how Gardner was anti-choice, no matter how "moderate" he tried to look by finessing the state/federal personhood distinction.

                    It wasn't about his lying in general but about one specific thing he was lying about…. personhood and abortion rights. Of course everyone already knew or assumed an R candidate would be just as anti-choice as every other Republican pol anyway so… big deal. I don't think it fooled anyone and his right wing supporters assumed it was a wink, wink position, something he said just to get elected which it was and which was fine with them.

                    What I found in canvassing in my south sububurban stomping ground was that  Udall's campaign was quite mistaken in believing that this was the one issue that would guarantee them the women's vote.

                    Many indie and Dem women expressed to me that the impression they had of Udall was that he was a a pro-abortion "extemist"  (whatever that means. Maybe someone who wants everyone to have a late term abortion just for fun?) who wasn't saying much about the issues they cared about most.  

                    As I've said I have no illusions that any negative ads could affect the Donald's support or even Cruz's among their fan base in a general but their fan base is far short of a general electoral majority. This would not, at all, constitute a Udall style one note strategy.

                    In fact, as part of campaign strategy I think Udall reminding voters that Gardner could not be trusted on preserving choice just because he backtracked a bit on state (but not federal) personhood would have been a good piece of a campaign addressing  a much broader range of concerns. The same goes here.

                     

                     

                    1. I gotta agree Blu Cat. As a white middle class man, I was disappointed that his ads didnt address my concerns. Okay, I get it about white privilege and all but sheesh, throw me a bone Mark. I think in general Dems forget that and isone of the primary reasons we are losing white men to the Repubs. I am not talking about targeting that demographic with promises, but maybe just acknowledging that we exist and most importantly that we are proud Democrats also.

          1. You have "cowboy dogs" V ..

            I used to know a cowboy poet from down around the Grand Canyon. He had 4 Dachshunds…when asked, why Dachsunds?..he replied ..

            "all during my young life I wanted to be a cowboy and I always heard those cowboys singing about "get a long little doggy"…so I did.."

  3. Early results in SC have JEB! owning 4th place with just under 12%. Does he drop out tonight or linger on for a little while more……

    I will never understand the Party of the Elephant. So the Shrub serves two terms in the White House after winning a lawsuit and an election but the Bush w/ the Brain sees the peak of his national political career in his fourth place finish in NH and SC.

    Talk about bad luck. Oh well……..JEB! '20 anyone?

    1. the guy never really seemed like he wanted it………..what with all the pre-announcement negativity, including by Ma Bush, he had the chance to stay out of the race and not sully the Bush name (well, any further).

      He should be much happier making easy money off investment bank deals and consulting without the need to break a sweat, or probably even get out of bed. 

      1. "making easy money off investment bank deals and consulting………."  Sounds good on the surface, but doesn't always work for this family. Who is the one Bush brother that was never seen in G.W.'s presidential campaigns in 2000 and 2004; also not seen in Jeb's campaign in 2015 and early '16?

        I refer of course to Neil "Mr. Silverado Savings & Loan in Denver" Bush.

    1. He's actually just nudged past Rafael Cruz into second place by a handful of votes but your point is well taken. Rubio had the backing of what passes the establishment GOP in SC (Nicki Haley, Tim Scott, Banjo Boy Gowdy) and is pulling in about 20%.

      Meanwhile JEB! has dropped to under 10%. But he's still running ahead of Kasich and the Dr. Ben.

    2. The best part is that South Carolina is a winner take all state so Rubio and Cruz get no delegates.  Second or third is irrelevant as far as delegates are concerned.  Trump wins it all with 34%.  Cruz took a big hit tonight.

      1. Although it's entirely likely that TRUMP™ takes all the state's delegates, the state isn't winner-take-all; it's a 60-40 hybrid.

        29 of the state's 50 Republican delegates are awarded to the state-wide winner.  The other 21 are awarded based on winning each of the state's seven congressional districts (3 per).  Now, it's likely TRUMP™ may have done the latter, but the assignment of delegates is still subject to a candidate's regional appeal.

    3. I like how Rubio said, "This country is now ready for a new generation of conservatives to guide us into the 21st century."

      I've been waiting for something to guide us into the 21st century, myself, for the past 16 years or so!

      2. Its this kinda talk that got George W. Bush elected President. At least dubya had other terrible people to blame for his fuck-ups. Roboto wouldn't be so fortunate. 

    1. That happened faster than I expected. I figured he would have taken a day or two for it to sink and then announce on Monday he was suspending his candidacy.

       

        2. The GOP base voters are not gruntled.

          55% of Republican voters are yelling for Trump and Cruz to tear the head off  the Establishment Republican Party and take a crap down it's throat.

    2. I didn't realize that Mittens is actually younger than the Trumpster (68 vs. 69). Lots of old white people running for president indecision

      If Mittens captures the establishment nomination in spite of Trump's delegate count, wouldn't it practically guarantee Trump running as a 3rd party candidate?

      Actually if it comes to Trump vs. Cruz, Trump is the less crazy candidate. Ick.

        1. So true……did you see where the Donald screwed up (from the GOP perspective) and said he liked the individual-mandate part of ACA this week? When told what he had done, he had to back off and denounce the entire law.

          He's also on record as saying he doesn't want people dying in the streets from lack of health care. I could see him doing deals with a coalition of some Dems and some Repubs on certain issues.

          Obviously authorization for "the wall" would be a party line vote for the GOP, but I think they'd like that. They'd see it as payback for the ACA.

          I think despite his new-found pro-life position, he remains somewhat pro-choice. And his trashing of Bush's invasion of Iraq and the reaction is stirs are delightful to watch. 

           

          1. It's possible that the Pubes will accept Trump's faux pas about the ACA. After all, many of them have gotten insurance through it.

            However, not wanting to see people dying in the street is against core Republican values.

            1. Many of them have gotten insurance through it.

              Like Ted Cruz?

              As for dying in the streets, as best I can tell, they’re against government death panels but they don’t oppose insurance company death panels.

            1. I was wondering about that too. So be builds the wall and sends them an invoice and they laugh. Muy chistoso! What's his next move? Does he invade them? To collect an alleged debt? 

              I'm guessing he hasn't thought this through but knowing his supporter, he doesn't need to.

      2. It looks like Willard is not going to take the plunge – at least not at this time – but is planning to endorse Rubio according to the Huff Post.

        I'm guessing after a respectable length of time, JEB! will encourage his 7% of the Republican primary voters to support Rubio too.

  11. It's unbelievable that The Donald could run out the clock and if Senators Cruz and Rubio stay through the the 15th, Trump is in.

    I hope if Secretary Clinton is going to be indicted, it happens soon. Like Wednesday. Clinton v. Trump is going to be hard enough – if you haven't noticed, she has a real negatives problem- but if there is an indictment after June 7… It's gonna suck.

      1. Tom Delay said that a friend of his in the FBI said that he heard that there is an indictment coming any day now. What better source of information can there be?

    2. Eeyore would have approved of your bleak assessment of her situation.  Maybe the Benghazi committee will also find some sure fire proof that Mrs Clinton did something wrong.  Like Obama, she just doesn't belong and sooner or later they are going to prove it.  Is that what the Eeyore in you is hoping for?

       

       

       

        1. Thanks Duke for your personal assessment of my personality.  They say that success is earning the respect of intelligent people so it is certainly a conundrum whether losing your seal of approval is a failure or a success for me if you get what I mean.  I think ColoradoPols was really fulfilled it's mission this last couple of weeks allowing rough and tumble dialogue between political junkies.  Whether my writing makes you smile or wince at least it is authentic.  For my part, I'm just happy as hell that the Parkinson's Disease that has taken up residence in my body hasn't crippled my mind yet.  Every day that I can still write something either asinine or poignant is a success for me.  Take care and keep writing strong.  You usually make good points.

          1. Thanks for your thoughtful reply, GG. My subject is not your personality. I don't know you outside of the words you put here, so I only get glimpses of you when you write. I have always admired your POV and so was dismayed at the vitriol you display against those of us who choose to support that commie from Yankeeland. 

            Earning the respect of intelligent people is easily accomplished. Just don't insult said intelligence. Insulting Moderatus is fine, because there is no inteligence there to denigrate. smiley

            So, I apologize for my abruptness, but I just need you to know, GG, that it is disconcerting to watch someone you have admired for so long be so unkind to sincere people who have perfectly good reasons for believing as they do.

            I remind myself everyday to try listening to understand, instead of listening to respond. Your comments and positions here, over the years, have inspired me, informed me, and made me laugh my ass off at times. I will just, respectfully, ask you again to ease up on the snark. I believe you have successfully made your point…peace, brother….

            1. Well said Duke.  I'll try to be less 'over the top' in my criticisms of those who are to the left of me but share my goals and dreams of a world where everybody gets a fair shot and peace is pursued with the same intensity as profits. Shalom

      2. I will enthusiastically support the D nominee. So enthusiastically that those who don't know me well will mistakenly assume I always preferred that candidate.

         I could name 20 candidates that I would prefer to either of the two leading Democrats. totally irrelevant. Because the two are who we have.

         Totally irrelevant. Because the two are who we have.  And I can't think of a single issue  where any of the Rs are better than either of the Ds.

         

        but I don't have to like it or buy it.  HRC was supposed to have this locked up as soon as VP Biden decided he was out. No one took Senator Sanders seriously until he won as many delegates as she did by just speaking his mind, from his heart.

        for the sake of everything dear- I hope there is no indictment. If she wins, this can go on the list with Whiewater and  Lewinsky as just another thing they can bring up whenever.

        But if there is, I hope it's soon.

         

         

         

         

        1. What's going on before a grand jury is supposed to be top secret. But I find it incredible that if there is a serious chance that she would be indicted, no one single person in the justice department would drop a hint to Joe Biden that he might want to have his ducks in a row just in case an indictment were to come down.

          Nobody has to leak any details or any evidence. Just a wink and a nod that there's a real chance that something is coming.

  12. The interesting thing to me is what Jeb:('s SuperPAC does now with all its leftover money.  Since he's no longer a candidate, he can coordinate it all he wants. Rubio was Darth Vader to his Obiwan Kenobi in Florida, and as sons of Texas, the Bushes probably feel like most about Ted Cruz; the better you know him, the less you like him. Interesting

    1. Is that true, Dafty.  Techniccally, after all, he onlly suspended the campaign.  That lets him wrap things up but I doubt he could directly tell Right to Flop what to do.  Maybe a little Kabuki theatre would do it.

    3. Actually, the two things that Trump really adores (after Trump himself, obviously) are …

      … money (and, the more the better) and the dutiful worship of spineless sycophants …

      Trump / JEB$ – 2016 !  

      Yep.

      Remember, you heard it here first !!!

    1. That's no big deal. How many hundreds of millions of dollars did Karl Rove burn through in 2012 to defeat Obama?

      I know, I could heard him now:  "But, but, but….. it's too soon to call Ohio! Our exit polls show Romney carrying Ohio!"

      It's only money. There's plenty more where that comes from……

                  1. They're elite are pretty much real world versions of the Ferengi. The Rules of Acquisition take the place of morality and ethics in their belief system, such as it is. 

  14. I am a Sanders supporter who plans to support Clinton if (as is likely) she gets the nomination.  Sanders' outperformance of Clinton among voters under 45 ought to be deeply troubling for the Clinton campaign–not so much for the primary, but for the general.  The sharply reduced turnout (80,000 this time compared with 120,000 in 2008) in the Nevada caucus, coupled with losing  badly among voters under 45, could spell real trouble for Clinton in the general.  

    They should bring in *outside* help on this issue, by which I mean someone outside the Clinton Beltway virtual compound.

    1. Yes.

      but turnout may have been lower for other reasons, some irrelevant to the general.

      – fewer likely voters

      – fewer willing to take off work to attend 

      – a big number who switched registration (there's a general problem)

      – a big number who switched for the caucus, but plan to come home for the general.*

      – something else.

       

      But the part about seeking perspective from outside the inner circle- concur. How to win Florida if it's Trump? Cruz?  How to win Ohio, Michigan and PA ?

  15. Ding Dong, surviving traditional Republicans… your fathers' GOP is officially dead.

    WASHINGTON — Donald Trump comfortably defeated his Republican presidential rivals on Saturday in South Carolina's GOP primary.

    Trump's resounding victory isn’t simply a boon to his prospects for winning the Republican presidential nomination, an outcome once thought impossible that is looking increasingly more plausible. It is also an embarrassing repudiation of conservative orthodoxy that has dominated Republican politics for decades. It suggests that the party's intellectual leaders, who organized the base around the National Review/Weekly Standard consensus — small government, free trade, pro-Israel, deregulation, low taxes, social conservatism and an aggressive foreign policy — have been generals of a phantom army.

    The troops, instead, are marching with Trump, who bested his rivals in South Carolina by campaigning against nearly everything the Bush family, the Republican Party and neoconservatives who supported military interventions advocated for. Among his many breaks with the elite consensus, Trump declared that former President George W. Bush had lied about weapons of mass destruction to march the country to war; blamed Bush for the 9/11 attacks, arguing that he ignored intelligence community warnings; defended Planned Parenthood; boasted that he was the only Republican who would not cut Social Security or Medicare; said heapproved of the individual mandate in Obamacare; and promised to slap onerous tariffs on companies who outsource jobs.

    And where Washington and New York-based GOP leaders pledge outreach to immigrants, moderate Muslims and other minorities, the reality TV star plays more overt racial politics than any national candidate since George Wallace. Trump's brand of nativist, nationalist isolationism marked the path to victory. Rival candidate Jeb Bush is a dead man.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-south-carolina_us_56c87f72e4b041136f1725b8

     

    2. God forbid I was ever running for President, but if I were, knowing that  photo op was coming, I'd eat it like an ear of corn. You'll catch grief no matter how you do it, but that would be the lesser of two evils.

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