President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
December 05, 2008 09:52 PM UTC
47 Comments
has apparently been added to the list of contenders for Ag Secty. Since she has joined the fray, is perceived as a rising star in the party and was an early and vocal supporter of Obama, I’d say she is the likely nominee.
Early reward for outlawing a certain science.
However with the NEE [new energy economy] AG will have a much larger impact. Being she outlawed coal plants in rural KS recently that could pose a problem for her too.
You know the cabinet CHANGE thing to date has been reverse of what Obama ran on. I mean come on Clinton, Holder, Gates, the GOP NatSec Adviser, Richardson —- some change huh?
It says to me … McCain was right on Foreign Policy but we must expose Hillary and neutralized Bill, Holder will protect me and knows the ropes, Gatea because Bush is doing the right thing on Defense, the GOP guy at NatSec Adviser because no Dem has a clue, and Richardson will keep the corporate goons drunk while I prepare the anal prong for them.
What would bloggers do without wildly speculating about things that haven’t happened yet?
they’re not really parlor games once we know what happens, are they?
Whoops!
Salazar wrong for Ag Dept.
By The Daily Sentinel
Thursday, December 04, 2008
We must admit we’re torn by the news that President-elect Barack Obama is reportedly considering 3rd District Congressman John Salazar for secretary of agriculture.
If Salazar, the San Luis Valley farmer, were sent to Washington, it would open up the 3rd District for a special election and the possibility that someone who is far more dynamic and productive could be elected to replace Salazar in Congress.
But the same reasons we could not endorse Salazar in his re-election bid for Congress this year make him a poor choice for Obama’s Cabinet.
He has been a staunch supporter of the Farm Bill, with all of its overly generous subsidies to certain types of farmers. Obama needs an agriculture secretary who will seek real reform in the bloated farm bill.
Salazar has also been an unabashed supporter of earmarks – pork-barrel funding which members of Congress tack onto budget bills to get money for projects in their own district. The Agriculture Department needs someone willing to speak out against that kind of funding.
Finally, Salazar was largely absent from this part of the 3rd District until the final weeks of the campaign, and he was not a leader in some of the critical natural resources debates on the Western Slope. As Agriculture Secretary he would oversee the national forest service and its multitude of contentious natural resource issues throughout the West.
John Salazar unquestionably knows farming, especially in the San Luis Valley. But we believe he would be the wrong choice for secretary of agriculture.
nice guy, but a limp noodle
I don’t want to be one of the haters in this, but his he really on the list, or is padding it for the sake of considering Hispanics?
Also, how much does Obama owe Colorado, now that the numbers are in? Yes, when I was busting my ass for him on the campaign trail, all the Chicago Clones told us how critical this State was to the overall effort.
Now that the ballots are cast and the overall cushion of victory is know, are the Obama folks going to pay up on all the Political favors done?
I guess Sebelius has said she’s not interested, and something called Agweb has a column that says Salazar is the front-runner.
http://www.agweb.com/Blogs/Blo…
Colorado wasn’t as pivotal to Obama’s election as Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina were. Also, don’t forget that the state Democrats did just fine here, and would have even if John McCain had managed to carry the state.
In short, Obama really doesn’t owe Colorado anything. Combine that with the fact that appointing Salazar would needless create a competitive special election that gives the GOP the possibility of picking up a little momentum, and it’s hard to see how Obama makes the pick.
It would be awesome to watch if he did, but I’m not holding my breath.
Obviously Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana were huge, but Colorado was a big win for Obama. I think he realizes how vital we are, not only to him politically, but to the nation as a whole.
Your point about needlessly creating a special election is spot on though.
We carried the state for Obama (first blue pres. victory in 16 years)
We changed a Senate seat form R to D
We changed a Congress seat from R to D while holding onto the 4 we already had.
I’d say we did enough this election for Coloradans to be considered for high level positions.
Colorado Democrats changed the senate seat and congressional seats without Obama. What does he “owe” Colorado, and why? As Dabee said, I’m sure he was happy with his win here, but it wasn’t as earth shattering as Indiana or Virginia, which hasn’t gone Dem since 1964, or North Carolina, which hasn’t gone Dem since 1976 when a Southerner was leading the ticket.
What does Obama owe Colorado and why?
If Colorado had gone for McCain, I doubt either Udall or Markey would have won.
The reason I say that is if McCain had won, it would have been because Dems did not do a good GOTV effort. That same effort would have meant that Udall’s numbers would have been substatially less, perhaps enough to loose the race and Markey would have surely not made it in.
Did we make or break the presidential race? No.
Did our efforts for Obama help remove opposition to the administration from the Congress? You bet.
I think Udall and Markey would have won if McCain had carried the state. Remember, Colorado voters aren’t afraid of splitting their ballots, as Bush won in 2004 by about the same margin that Salazar won. And I think we can both agree that Coors ran a better campaign then Schaffer did.
What really remains to be seen is how McCain did in CD-4. If he got about the same percentage as other statewide Republicans have in the past, then it goes to show that people were ready to dump MM while still wanting a Republican in the White House.
But in anycase, I just don’t think that Obama needs to show Colorado any more love. I mean, Denver got the convention. You could say that showed Colorado a lot more love then selecting Salazar for a cabinet post would…
You’re right about Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina, but part of the way Democrats won those states was based on practice in Colorado for the last four years, as the state’s profile is mirrored in the increasingly suburban Va. and NC. (Indiana’s shift was the recession more than anything.)
To say Udall and Markey would’ve done as well without Obama on the ticket — and Obama’s ground team registering voters and getting them out — would be wrong. It was a team effort, each of the candidates complementing each other.
Obama doesn’t “owe” Colorado anything, but the modern Democratic Party would do well to try to figure out how Colorado performed such a complete shift in just four years.
…except for 538.com, most informed folks were predicting a close race. Colorado was THE State in the West Obama had to win to get into 1600 Penn.
But then he won, and he didn’t (apparently) need us. It’s almost like a hockey score – there’s the game-winning goal, and the final score. Sometimes (actually most of the time) they’re not the same thing.
I’m also wondering aloud how much (or how little) the National Party delivered to Pat Waak and the State Political Machinery, and if that affected the favors delivered after the election.
Is it like a baseball trade, were instead of draft choices we got cash?
Colorado going for a Dem Presidential candidate and by a decisive majority was huge for Obama from a PR point of view, further undermining any attempt to downplay this as a coasts vs heartland victory. We are a formerly red state he really wanted ( witness the ground game here) and one which has shown how Dems can win in the heartland.
We also are responsible for adding to the number of Dems in congress every election since 2004. I do think the pressure is coming from Latinos disappointed by the failure to make Richardson SOS, however, and doubt that Salazar will be appointed when there is no need to give up a safe congressional seat. Short-listing is probably as far as it goes.
From Colorado the Democratic party will continue to expand throughout the West. We didn’t give Obama the election by 1 vote while staying Republican – we have become a solidly Democratic state with all state-wide offices but 1 and 5 of 7 congressional seats.
It’s nice that Obama won here but it hardly was earth shaking.
Dems as a whole owe Colorado because of Udall and Markey flipping seats, but Obama doesn’t “owe” the state much.
Also, while it was probably influenced by the DNC being here, CO was 15th in fundraising in the Pres. race. Considering the state is 22nd in population, that is impressive and should be rewarded on some level.
that alone is reason to leave him in the House
With Jim Isgar you always want to ask “Where’s Trigger?” Thiebault was a key contributor to the Democratic takeover of the State Senate in 2000. He soldiered on without a complaint in 2002 as Rollie Heath’s choice to be Lieutenant Governor and in 2004 whipped a long serving District Attorney by a large margin. Thiebualt is squeaky clean and has a large and photogenic family. I cannot think of a stronger candidate.
how did that work out for him ?
I forget how many kids he has, but it’s well over a dozen.
I’m all in favor of people who’s name starts with Thie
that we know of. That’s a reasonable sized family, but it’s nothing like the Thiebaults. As Dan points out, there are more Thiebaults than there are Democrats in Douglas County.
WHERE ARE YOU WITH YOUR DAMN STOP THE PRESSES DIARY, MotR!?!
Has anyone found a newspaper outside of Colorado discussing John Salazar as a potential Secretary of Agriculture? I haven’t.
Most likely the rumor begins and ends with Team Salazar.
While Bill Thiebault is a great guy he probably won’t have the chance to run for Congress any time soon.
as reported in the Kansas City Star
http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q…
The Secretary of Agriculture isn’t exactly considered top of the cabinet – The West Wing even poked fun at it in an episode about the State of the Union. Maybe that’s why newspapers outside of Colorado aren’t talking about it?
Still, John Salazar in line for the Presidency? Whoa.
President John Salazar.
And here we’re telling people not to measure the drapes in Salazar’s congressional office…
…how many people can misspell the name in one thread….geez!
I was born in Pueblo, and raised in both Pueblo and Eagle County (back when Eagle was part of CD3) — also, when I ‘briefly’ ran for SD8, I did some analysis on parts of CD3, quantitative and qualitative — lastly, my film has played at quite a few film festivals in Colorado, allowing me to travel much of the Western Slope (for what it’s worth) – here are my thoughts as an activist Republican –
BILL THIEBAULT –
Any notion that Thiebault ain’t the guy is a severe miscalculation – there are thre reasons why Thiebault would be an excellent choice –
1. Last I checked, Pueblo is the biggest city in CD3, not Grand Junction — in addition, Pueblo, while still boasting large Dem figures, is starting to become controlled by Unaffiliateds – not that it will become a Republican area anytime soon, but its not the Democratic stronghold it once was — everyone in Pueblo knows Theibault, has met him, and loves him — in any CD3 race, he’ll deliver Pueblo BIG, which is more important than delivering GJ
2. Thiebault, back in 2000, was deeply involved in the redistricting scheme that would’ve carved out a CD7 that was based in Southern Colorado, with Pueblo as the anchor city —- many people who live in Southern Colorado didn’t forget those efforts and deeply appreciate Thiebault’s activism to bring more focus to the Southern Colorado region — the voters of those areas, who are pretty much all in CD3, have not forgotten that
3. Have we forgotten that Thiebault ran for LT Governor with Heath back in 2002?? The guy has a better statewide Name ID than most think
ISGAR —
He’s more popular than people think and better known than people think —- many of the people I’ve bumped into on the Western Slope see him as a citizen activist – don’t underestimate his popularity
KATHY CURRY —
Here’s a BIG name! I have yet to find a person who tells me that they don’t admire Curry — yes, Republicans aren’t crazy about her legislation against drilling, but I have never heard anyone accuse her of being purchased — she is seen as a true citizen activist, and her popularity stretches all over the Western Slope, from Steamboat down to Durango
BERNIE BUESCHER —
In my mind, as an activist Republican, I’m more afraid of the selection of Isgar, Curry, or Thiebault, than I am of Buescher
First off, no one knows Buescher in Pueblo, and I don’t really know how big his name is on the rest of the Western Slope — any idea that Buescher has high name ID is a misguided notion, in my mind
Second, Buescher lacks the following that I’ve seen from a Thiebault, Curry, or Isgar, all people who fought for their home areas, regardless of consequence — I’m not saying that Buescher didn’t fight for GJ, but Buescher lost HD55 (IMO) because of his ties to labor union votes — the same thing will hurt him in a CD3 race
DEMOCRAT PRIMARY —-
I fully expect that Thiebault would knock the socks off of Buescher in a Dem Primary, at the very least because Pueblo has a LOT more Democrats than GJ does — Curry would also poll high, but I don’t know if she could beat Thiebault in a primary — if I’m a Republican, and I’m given a choice of Thiebault, Curry, Isgar, and Buescher, I deeply believe that Buescher is the most beatable
Remember guys — despite his good intelligence and thoughts, Buescher never was Speaker of the House — campaigning on the platform of “…but I was going to be the Speaker” really ain’t gonna hold a candle to the legislation that Curry passed against oil drilling or the activist efforts that Thiebault pursued on behalf of Southern Colorado
REPUBLICAN SIDE —-
Look out for GIGI DENNIS of Pueblo — she should have solid NAME ID, statewide, and she is very loved in Pueblo — if I’m a Republican, I’m thinking a Dennis campaign could be our best chance
Senator Penry is a solid choice because no one has more energy than he does…… if our good Senator wants to run for CD3, I suggest he take that energy and invest it in frequent trips to Pueblo, Las Animas, Southern Colorado regions, etc…
Lastly — the guy I will personally support for CD3 is Matt Smith — he needs to give this another run — he is EXTREMELY beloved amongst Republicans and deeply respected — I’m hard pressed to think of a Republican politician that doesn’t love Colorado more than Matt Smith, in addition to the fact that he has rock-solid convictions and integrity – I’m going to personally encourage him to run if CD3 opens up
…anyway, Gigi Dennis has the IQ of a dead flashlight battery (h/t Patrick Dennis), and even people in Pueblo have started to see that.
and hasn’t for over 7 years. There was a time when she would have been considered a serious contender for the 3rd, but it is not realistic now.
And Jam, thanks, it is THIEBAUT.
I know all of the names being mentioned in this thread, and for the most part, I agree with Ali’s analysis.
Firstly, I think Bernie is really more interested in Sec’y of State, plus the number game does not work for him. Ali is correct, as a Democrat, you need to pull a very large vote out of Pueblo. John Salazar got 52K votes in Pueblo in 2008, Bill Thiebaut got 57K, Mark Udall got 45K.
Bernie got 17K in Grand Junction, the most he could hope for out of Mesa County as a whole is maybe 25K. If you look at the Democratic vote county by county Bernie is not going to add many more votes to the Democratic vote (even on the Western Slope) beyond that 25K out of Mesa. For him to win he needs at least 45K votes out of Pueblo and I think he is still about 6K short of winning.
Curry, Penry, Tipton, Isgar all will have to give up their legislative seats in order to run in a special election (because of state-mandated fundraising restrictions). Are any of them willing to do that? I’m not sure. Isgar maybe, but I doubt the others would.
The number problem I noted for Bernie is an even bigger problem for Curry and Isgar – their home base is too small and leaves them a steep hill to climb to get to 50% plus 1.
Again the key is a large vote out of Pueblo. Building sufficient name id in a short election season is tough, and turning out the vote is key. Look at what happened in Georgia. You have to start with a large base in Pueblo.
One name not mentioned her is Gail Scwartz. She won in the old 3rd, but that district included two counties that are similar to her home of Pitkin – Eagle and Summit. She has the ability to raise money, but too would have to resign her senate seat.
I also agree with Ali that Matt Smith would be a strong candidate but I don’t think he can get the nomination – he is too moderate.
Thiebaut is probably the strongest candidate the Dems can nominate. He does have 15 kids, he is squeeky clean, has a great history on Water (he sued Colorado Springs over water in Federal Court which made the normally very conservative Pueblo Chieftain swoon over him) and is a proven vote getter out of Pueblo. They love Bill Thiebaut in Pueblo. I point out again, he got 57K votes for DA in Pueblo County this year.
If a special election is held the party organizations will select their respective candidates. Thiebaut vs. Penry in a multi-million dollar race in the middle of the Winter as the election has to be held within 60 days of Salazar’;s resignation.
Fun to think about. Once the President elect meets with Rep. Salazar does anyone really think he will be handed the keys to a department with 85,000 employees?
for not even mentioning Schwartz in your analysis…
The election must be held between 75 and 90 days after the vacancy.
March or April most likely with campaigning occurring Jan, Feb, March.
I found them to be very helpful
That Curry’s NAME ID is decently higher than Gail Schwartz’s — I’ve also found Curry to have a bigger following
The bills she carried against ‘Big Oil’ in the 2007 session are giving her a lot of mileage with many Western Slopers
And a cool leadership position. More importantly, especially in the 3rd, she’s been great as the Ag Comm Chair.
I will politely disagree that Matt Smith would have trouble getting our Republican nomination
I have yet to meet a Republican Central Committee on the Western Slope that does not completely LOVE Matt Smith
GJ is really the only Western Slope area where Republicans lean strongly right on Fiscal and Social issues, but GJ is far from single-handedly deciding the primary (plus, Matt Smith has strong ties in GJ anyways)
I can’t say the same for any other Republican on the Western Slope (being loved and well-known by every Central Comm) — if it was a caucus competition, I think Matt Smith has it locked down
Anyone who recommends Sal Pace as a possible contender for the ‘potential’ 3rd congressional district race must be using their ‘feelings’ and not ‘reason.’ Are you kidding me? Must I remind you that Sal was just elected unopposed to the state house of representatives and has no experience when it comes to serving as a politician. Does he have the wherewithal? Are his beliefs unsettled? Will he be easily swayed? More importantly, can he be elected when put up against an opponent? Questions yet to be answered. Which leads me to believe that it must be the same people that suggest Pace who are pushing Buescher for the candidacy. I am not sure if much logic is going into this thought process, but if the so called democratic committee that selects candidates has any wits about them they will start analyzing some numbers and put someone forward who is a strong candidate, e.g., Thiebaut. Although many people believe their needs to be a strong ‘middle of the road’ democratic candidate in order to win the 3rd congressional district, some fail to realize it is a year of change. Take for instance the presidential election of this year which broke many boundaries. We need a democratic candidate that is willing to stay true to democrat ideals and push the boundaries in the western slope.