CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
50%↑
15%
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
June 21, 2016 02:41 PM UTC
26 Comments
Here’s why Republicans should be terrified that Donald Trump is their Presidential candidate…
Chris Christie has got to be scheming to make the best of this rapidly sinking campaign. Perhaps if Trump should happen to take an unfortunate "fall down the stairs" at the convention, he's thinking they would come to him to run in The Donald's place.
There's gotta be some payoff for prostituting himself to Trump, right?
I think he has lower approval ratings in his own state then Trump has nationally.
He gets to lick the plates after dinner's finished . . .
The money itself isn't huge. Trump can self-fund if he wants to and is getting gobs of free media, so why spend money on ads.
But, fundraising isn't just important because of the money raised. It is also a proxy for how many active committed supporters you have and what kind of campaign organization you have – boots on the ground. Trump clearly has almost no campaign organization backing him and providing boots on the ground and coordinated campaigns in both political parties have become increasingly anemic in recent years as it is easier for candidates to raise money than it is for political parties to do so.
No evidence that he can write himself those big checks and real presidential campaigns need costly infrastructure. True it's not just the ads. It's also the organization on the ground. He has virtually none. He's not getting free media out of proportion to a zillion other candidates as during his primary rise when he spent very little. It's just him and HRC and they're both getting the usual free media coverage of a two person general election race. Most of his is not the kind his party wants.
What he's running is not a campaign so much as the Donald Trump Concert Tour, catering to fans. He's now consistently behind HRC and I predict he'll never catch up.
Well said, ohwilleke. Trump isn't just failing to raise money — he's failing to solidify connections and support that come with big donations.
The Republicans who are rabid Trump supporters aren't generally establishment party members and enthusiasm for him among the regular Republicans who go to party meetings is depressed so he is going to have to get his lunatic fringe to come out of the woodwork and organize GOTV efforts at the local level and do it all within the next couple of months. That's a difficult assignment seeing as how far right extremists aren't prone to be team members or community organizers. There could be a big gap in in the actual abilities of the competing boots on the ground GOTV efforts this fall. It is more than a money shortfall that he is facing. It's a talent shortfall. Without investments in paid, professional GOTV efforts, he is banking on volunteers who have rudimentary organizing skills at best. Can you say Dan Maes incompetence?
Many months ago, back when no one thought he could win the nomination I heard an NPR reporter who had attended one of his rallies describe how it was unlike any political event she had ever attended in that there was no organizing going on. No signing in and providing contact info, no envelopes at the sign-in tables for contributions but also to check off what you'd be willing to do… phone bank, door to door, host an event etc. This reporter was convinced that there was no chance a "campaign" like this could ever lead to the presidency, no matter how big and noisy, no matter how may cheering fans.
In a real campaign, at least in my experience as an active Dem, you collect all the that info from attendees and then you have to have staff on the ground to open offices and organize your volunteers to be your boots on the ground and, later, your GOTV force.
The party at state, county right down to HD level also have their armies of volunteers, many of them overlapping, volunteering for various campaigns but also for the party's canvassing and GOTV efforts. People network, get to know each other, the local party people are a great resource for the campaign people in every precinct. It's like a political ant colony.
Trump thinks he can do this without any of that? He thinks he can just be a rock star and that will get it done?
He's in for a rude awakening.
Free media is useless for responding to the systemic negative ads, such as Trump Mocks Disabled People that are poisoning public perception of him. That needs parried by lots of ads showing him with puppies or showing Hillary drowning kittens. He is silent while hillary defines him to the great mass of voters who did not pay attention in the primaries. He has wasted an irreplaceable six weeks
I wouldn't say wasted. He was able to pay himself from his campaign fund.
Rachel Maddow did a very interesting analysis tonight. It's her conclusion that Trump has never been running to win the presidency. Oh sure, if that happens that's frosting on the cake but really it's just another one of his rackets. The RNC is now finding out just how sketchy the whole Trump campaign edifice really is.
Instead of the campaign spending money on the kinds of things you do to win, like infrastructure and TV time, Trump is paying himself out of the campaign to use his own home, Trump hotels, restaurants, his kid's winery…. the list goes on and on. She introduced the segment by reaching back to the Gingrich campaign/book tour of 2012, the main object of which seemed to be selling his and his wife's books for a comparison but of course that was nothing compared to what Trump's doing.
When all is said and done it will probably become apparent that Trump badly needed the income from things like his reality TV show, is worth a fraction of what he claims, most of it not liquid, and, far from being able to write fat checks to his campaign he needs the cash he's sucking out of it. This is his greatest con, his biggest reality TV hit yet.
He doesn't care any more about the fate of the Republican Party or the conservative agenda than he cared about the investors in his bankrupt companies or the poor saps who maxed out their credit cards and spent their kids college funds to attend his fake university.
The GOP has been had. It doesn’t look like the American people are going to be. Trump’s losing ground steadily.
Nice summary. Apparently. Someone fooled some of the people some of the time.
I would put it more Barnamesquely . . .
. . . There's a Republican born every minute!
Here's a link to Maddow site with this segment.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/trump-campaign-a-cover-for-moneymaking-scheme-710188099545
2 weeks ago I watched an interview with Mark Cuban. After evaluation Cuban estimates Trump's worth at $160 million.
Trump has known Clintons for at least 15 years and can see that they lead a billionaire 's lifestyle thanks to CGI. I think he sees the White House only in economic terms. Maybe then he could REALLY become a billionaire
It's not going to be Trump. The Koch brothers will buy Trump off, and he'll turn the nomination over to Ryan at the convention.
Trump is just a distraction, a rope-a-dope, if you will, while Ryan gets ready to release a platform that sounds good, but will leave less time for critical analysis.
Yeah right. The GOP wishes. Although the dump Trump delegate movement is giving it one last desperate try, not with any real backing from the leadership. Most likely they'll just be stuck with the candidate they so richly deserve. But this is a strange enough situation… anything could happen.
Trump is the single, most destructive force unleashed on the Republican Party, and there is a lot on the line this election. By hook or by crook, they've got to get rid of him.
Meanwhile, Ryan is keeping his powder dry.
Notice how Trump isn’t really running for President; He is primarily a big, surrogate attack dog against Hillary. Well, I guess he is also running to funnel campaign money to his hotels and other businesses.
ColoradoPols, maybe you could put this in the Big Line at the top of the page!
This actually smells possible/likely. Bush may yet be nominated
Koch's could just pay Trump half a billion to go. Give Bush $450 million to run and still be within their budget. Brownback for VP
Bush flamed out when he couldn't make tens of millions of dollars into a single vote for his campaign. Kaisich maybe. Cruz doubtful but who knows. But JEB? is history.
Agree Jeb is put a fork in it done.
How much money does the Colorado GOP have?
How many full-time staffers are in place?
Can they carry the ground game that Drumpf™ will not fund?
What are they doing about the Thanks Mike adverts?
Great questions!
Now, let us combine several questions: Where is all the fat cat money that the GOP is supposed to have available on both the national level and in Colorado?
For whatever reason—it just ain't showing up this election cycle.
Besides their aversion to Trump. it is not showing up anywhere. The Koch brothers are sitting on their hands, Adelson is a no-show for any candidate, etc.,etc.
Anybody have any thoughts?
The Koch brothers own and control the RNC voter list. They are deep in the data analysis that Trump and the RNC aren't able to do. That will tell them where to focus their money, although we know they'll be spending big on important Senate races and down-ballot. We won't see where they are really investing until after the Republican convention, which means, I guess after the next reporting period.
When the party apparatus has been privatized, there isn't much public information.
Of course, if the Presidential candidate for the Republicans ends up being Ryan, then all that unallocated money will be available for him.
Trump has all these eerie similarities to Dan Maes. Think Dan Maes at the national level. Huckster. Con Artist. Fleecing the rubes. Fantasy projections of what a winner he is. We know how the local story ended for Republicans who took a flyer on an outsider "businessman".