October 03, 2016 11:25 AM UTC

Monmouth in Colorado: Clinton 49%, Trump 38%, Bennet Crushing Glenn

• 9 Comments
• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: 9NEWS’ Kyle Clark quips:

Trump stop in Colorado after seeing those poll numbers. #OnToNevada #copolitics #9NEWS #HeyNext pic.twitter.com/UBrz1racuy

— Kyle Clark (@KyleClark) October 3, 2016

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A new poll from top-rated Monmouth University Polling Institute shows Colorado rapidly pulling out of reach for Republicans, as Donald Trump’s post-debate slide in the polls starts to take on the appearance of more like wholesale collapse:

Hillary Clinton holds an 11 point lead over Donald Trump in Colorado, which is nearly identical to the 13 point advantage she had when Monmouth University polled the state in mid-July…

Among Colorado voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 49% currently support Clinton and 38% back Trump. Another 7% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 3% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and 3% are undecided. In mid-July, the race stood at Clinton 48%, Trump 35%, Johnson 5%, and Stein 3%.

“Some polls had suggested that Colorado was becoming more competitive. That may have been true last month, but it does not appear to be the case now. Clinton’s current lead is as comfortable as it was three months ago, which is probably why her campaign has not diverted a lot of resources here,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll shows both parties hardening off in support of their respective nominees, while independent Colorado voters flee Trump in what could be the decisive dynamic of the race in this state:

Among self-identified Democrats, 95% support Clinton – similar to 93% in July. Among self-identified Republicans, 90% support Trump – up from 78% in July. Clinton has widened her lead among independents – 49% to 26% now, compared with 40% to 28% in July. [Pols emphasis]

In the U.S. Senate race…well, it’s starting to look like a blue state election back East instead of a nominally competitive swing state:

Turning to the Senate race, incumbent Michael Bennet currently leads El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn by 53% to 35%. Libertarian Lily Tang Williams has 4% of the likely vote and Green Party candidate Arn Menconi has 3%, while 5% are undecided. This represents a widening of the 48% to 35% lead Bennet held in July.

These lopsided numbers from one of the nation’s best-reputed pollsters in Colorado have some observers asking the next logical question:

If Clinton wins CO by 11, watch both #CO06 and #CO03 in the House. https://t.co/9mk2fa48WT

— Jacob Smith (@jacobfhsmith) October 3, 2016

We are hearing new rumors that suggest the CD-3 race between incumbent GOP Rep. Scott Tipton and former state Sen. Gail Schwartz could be tightening considerably–turning what was a “reach goal” for Democrats into an opportunity worthy of a strong push in October. Certainly there is nothing in these latest numbers to suggest otherwise, and much to give Democrats both in CD-3 and perennial battleground CD-6 new reason to hope.

In Colorado we may be done talking about who will win, and on to the question of running up the score.