President (To Win Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
See Full Big Line
(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
See Full Big Line
(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
See Full Big Line
(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
See Full Big Line
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 11, 2016 02:38 PM UTC
14 Comments
SEP. 22-23 Gravis Marketing 799 RV Glenn +2
Source: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/colorado/
That is right, though it's an obvious outlier. For some reason it didn't appear in RCP's above-the-fold list when we looked earlier. We've updated.
It's not just an outlier, it's fucking Breitbart. It's as fake as 2012's "Unskewed Poll."
You're right on target. Gravis polls are all but worthless. Before the Arizona primary, Gravis had McCain loosing by 9 points but the other polls had him up by 15 points. He easily won the primary.
As you point out much of Gravis polling is conducted on behalf of Breitbart which is an organization that is truth challenged.
Everyone ignores the polls that don't say what they want them to say.
Does that "everyone" include you, Fluffy?
Every other poll is wrong!
Not really true, fluffy. RCP does a good job of sorting out the outliers and giving a reasonably objective view.
Which means Dems only have to ignore a poll here and there and Rs have to ignore all the rest. Check out any reputable poll averaging site, modster. RCP definitely is not left leaning.
While you're there, you know that LA Times outlier that's had Trump ahead nationally by 3 or 4 points when everyone else had him behind by as much as 11? Check it out. He's tied on that one now.
But definitely have mommy read you the one poll that has Glenn ahead at beddy bye time. Sleep tight. yadayadayada.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html
“There is a 19-year-old black man in Illinois who has no idea of the role he is playing in this election.
He is sure he is going to vote for Donald J. Trump .
And he has been held up as proof by conservatives — including outlets like Breitbart News and The New York Post — that Mr. Trump is excelling among black voters. He has even played a modest role in shifting entire polling aggregates, like the Real Clear Politics average, toward Mr. Trump.
How? He’s a panelist on the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll”
Who the hell did Glenn send this to? Obviously no one who has ever reason about this race.
What a headline on the thread. Probably the only time you'll ever get smiles on the faces of Zappatero and Moderatus at the same time.
You guys, and Bennet, should all be kicking Mitch McConnell's ass while you're at it, that is, unless you want to be all Bipartisanshippy and stuff after the election.
I thought Glenn was a Christian. Isn't there something in their book about telling lies?