President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
February 19, 2009 02:22 AM UTC
51 Comments
underestimating Frazier….especially if Tancredo and Beauprez split the “end times” wing of the Republican Party. Further, they both represent the past and Frazier could package himself as the future of the party.
But what has he done to merit that we, er, “estimate” him correctly? He is an unknown Aurora city council member who has nothing to run on from his own background. There are a thousand Ryan Fraziers in Colorado, and none of them should run for Senate, either.
with a network of supporters based on his support of the anti-union amendments that failed last year. He was even the target of union ads that ran during last year’s elections…there are not “thousands” of those people in Colorado.
Tancredo is perceived as a racist (rightly or wrongly…and he is not going to appeal to Latino voters). Beauprez is a loser. Rayburn is a loser. If Republicans are looking for a new face to take on Michael Bennett (another new face) they could do worse than Frazier.
I will reiterate though, he would need to be in a multi candidate primary to make it through…he is, after all, pro-gay rights.
Like thousands of others across the state, as Pols says. And his “pro-gay rights” position is more nuanced than that description suggests. He believes homosexuals are going to hell, but he doesn’t think government has a duty to hasten the journey. No doubt he (and Laughing Boy and Brad Jones in his more jovial moods, etc.) is the future face of a resurgent GOP, but not for years.
So you’ve been to a couple of GOP meetings lately? How would you know Frazier’s beliefs on homosexuality?
Ahhh…I LOVE it! The dude hasn’t even announced yet and the lefties are on the war path against him.
It is soooo on!
…and can one rent rooms or lockers by the hour at these meetings?
Frazier has talked in detail about this “beliefs on homosexuality” plenty of places, Ben. Unless he has secret beliefs he’s only discussing at these GOP meetings, away from prying eyes — the position that dare not speak its name.
And your paranoid fantasies are getting the best of you. No one’s on a war path. The guy’s going to be taken apart by Republicans, and, if he survives that, by the vast majority of voters who thought RTW was a stupid idea, ineptly executed. But good luck with that adolescent posturing. It’s done so well for you lately.
In the general election union members will vote Dem – but they will do that regardless. RTW supporters will vote for him – but they will do that anyways. No one else cares that much about it.
that he supported extending benefits to partners of gay city employees, he is pro-gay rights.
Where he thinks gays are going after they die is of no consequence….he isn’t the one who will be making the decision.
Entirely without nuance.
astounds me.
Tom Tancredo has no meaningful chance of winning a statewide election in the State of Colorado.
He is not loved by the Republican base. Democrats and moderates hate him.
The disgruntled xenophobic independents who like him tend not to vote too reliabily.
Nobody else could run with the same name ID as Tancredo. You have to give him even money to win a primary, and then, who knows?
CD-6 needs a viable, charismatic, progressive (creating a tension with “viable”) Democratic candidate, and we don’t have him or her yet. I say that with no offense intended toward either David Canter or John Flerlage, neither of whom I know (and both of whom I would like to get to know). The viable candidate I am describing may turn out to be one of them. But neither is there yet. But if CD-6 had a little bit of the embarrassment of riches found in CD-7, we’d have a shot, if not in 2010, then in 2012. We need to get our act together, and “create” a viable candidate, and we need to do it in a big way.
In CD6 that doesn’t seem to create tension. It’s whatever the verb form of crating an oxymoron.
I have met David Canter, not John Flerlage.
DC seems to be a great guy and with his heart in the right place. I would have suggested he get elected to something else first. 50-1 sounds polite to me at this stage. If nothing else, I think he has a 90% name recognition problem to overcome.
I have to totally disagree – John Flerlage has the right profile and drive to get things done.
I want to see someone run who can take on Coffman’s background. John brings over 22 years in the Marine Corp and reserves and also was a Lieutenant Colonel.
Right Profile and with Coffman being so anti Obama and Ethics issues… He’s not as safe as pols would think with John running.
There is time to build name ID, you cannot find someone with a profile like this every cycle.
I’ll be meeting with both David and John in the near future. I’ll get back to you afterward.
Have to agree with you, Steve. I’ve met both Flerlage and Canter, and if I were betting my house on this, I’d put it on Coffman. Both of them are still busy re-inventing the wheel and trying to figure out how to organize a machine; and not even close to taking the ground they’d need to be truly competitive. The only way to beat Coffman would have been to have had a progressive, unique candidate taking bold, nontraditional strategies and tactics – much like Obama did. Not the time, place, or the candidates. Write it off.
If you mean an 8-1 chance of RUNNING, then I agree. I know the inside dirt is that he’s running.
An 8-1 chance of WINNING election as Colorado’s governor is fantasy. His last campaign was a disaster (it had to be to lose to Beauprez) and he’s never held elective office.
Holtzy should be a lot closer to Wiens for those reasons IMHO.
We reported a long time ago that he’s running. That’s no secret.
but I haven’t heard or seen it anywhere else. Pray tell.
Quick’s not running.
Why havent you included primary opposition to Bennet? Frankly, I think his chances of getting through a primary are less than his chances of winning the seat if he does get through the primary.
…let’s get these rumors started right!
I would like to see that.
also, are there other dems that might be contemplating challenging either for Senate or for Guv?
Morgan Carroll, Terrance Carroll, Peter Groff, Joan Fitz-Gerald, Ed Perlmutter, Diana DeGette, Swanee Hunt, Silver Salazar, Gary Hart, Aaron Harber and Mike Miles. They are all running. Boy, isn’t Fantasy Campaign League exciting?!
I’ll trade you Alice Madden and Ron Tupa for Morgan Carroll and a politico to be named later. Deal?
Jared Polis, Joe Rice, John Hickenlooper, Mark Udall (he’s already won statewide election!), Betsy Markey, Bernie Buescher, David Skaggs, and Benjamin Stapleton.
Hick is staying put in 2010. All the rest are running.
Another wash. Romanoff might have had a chance, but you can only blow off your base for so long. Here’s the secret: Not every run is a sure thing and if you want to wait for that before you take your first step forward you may be doing the moon walk.
Why not a primary line here to. At some point Democrats will tire of the political ineptitude of their Governor by mistake.
there will be, at least, a serious, public consideration of challenging Bennet and/or Ritter. Whether it turns into an actual attempt at a primary remains to be seen.
But every Democratic gathering I have been to in the past few weeks (and that has been a bunch cuz it’s re-org time) the topic is not “will someone challenge one of them” but rather “who is going to challenge one of them”. Of course no one has definte answers to that question yet. I don’t even think potential candidates have definite answers yet.
The “pre-season” is going to be interesting!
No one will primary either of them because both have strong enough support that they would almost certainly win their primary (incumbency helps a lot). And weakening them for a general election would be heavily frowned on.
Yes lots of people want to discuss this. Yes lots of people are honked off over various items. But it’s mostly inside baseball and the average Dem doesn’t care that Ritter picked a Senator who wasn’t on anyone’s approved list.
Oh, and both will win the general election.
but you have to seriously suck to lose a primary as a sitting gov. Ritter just isn’t among the likes of Frank Murkowski and Bob Holden…the only two to lose in the decade and a half…
What’s up with that race, anyway?
It’s going to be hilarious. I wouldn’t underestimate Governor Good Hair though. Even though people don’t particularly like him, he’s won some tough elections…more than KBH, at least.
Who knew being America’s weakest governor was such a draw? 🙂
I miss Molly Ivins.
I think Ritter is pretty safe. If, and that is a bif IF, there is a serious challenge, I think it will be to Bennet.
I note that Scott McInnis has disappeared from the The Big Line and Josh Penry seems to be invisible as well.
Is there no interest in western slope Republicans?
Why should there be? Penry is famous in his own mind and in wingnut country of Mesa County. That’s not a statewide base.
I wouldn’t give you ten cents for both of them if they came gift-wrapped in a silver box. I live in Mesa County and I am proud to have the distinction of having been personally attacked by McInnis in the local paper.
I guess I am just surprised (and pleased) to see the pair being ignored on the front range. We are pretty sick of Penry over here and Scott McInnis is not well-liked anywhere, from what I have observed.
Is there to be no election in these Congressional Districts?
Why do you hate these districts so much?
So far there is no one running in CD1 or talking of running except the incumbent. Furthermore, there is next to no chance anyone would be able to topple DeGette.
that dave just this stuff for his own amusement at this point. He is ALWAYS the one to say, “What about CD1????” and he’s been told repeatedly why it’s not on the list. (Adding CD5 is a new twist.)
Don’t know if he was serious.
And of course, there’s also nobody talking about challenging Polis, and there’s no chance any Republican would beat him. So why is CD-2 up there?
First time up for re-election IS the best tiome to challenge. However, he is pretty safe at this point. I doubt that anyone from the Dems wants to challenge him and there are GOP who will be able to take him out.
As for CD1, she’s bee there since 96. Simply not a race worth talking about unless someone were to challenge from her own party.
It’s going to be a boring election with every single race listed won by the incumbent. And every single one will be won by 5 points or more – including CD-4, Senate, and Governor.
But I can’t argue with it.
A lot of outside variables are also going to be weighing in.
maybe getting in the CD-4 mix? There was quite a lot of crowing about that happening here back in November/December, what happened? Did he just decide that he’s better at advertising booze than running for office?