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November 04, 2016 03:08 PM UTC

Three New Colorado Polls: Clinton Up 5-6, Bennet Stomping Glenn

  • 28 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton.

Three polls out in the past 24 hours show a stabilizing picture of the presidential race in Colorado–first, GOP-aligned Magellan Strategies’ poll out late yesterday:

Our final survey of likely voters in Colorado finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 6 points, with 44% supporting Hillary Clinton and 38% supporting Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is down to 7%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 2% support, 2% support for “some other candidate” and 7% are undecided.

Compared to our last Colorado survey on October 12th, we find that Hillary Clinton’s support has increased by 4 points from 40% to 44%, and Donald Trump’s support has increased by 3 points from 35% to 38%. Gary Johnson’s support has declined by 5-points and Jill Stein’s support has declined 3 points. We believe that Hillary Clinton is the beneficiary of the declines in support for the Libertarian and Green Party candidates, although she may have lost some support to Donald Trump, especially among voters 65 and older.

Keating Research/OnSight PR, considered a Democratic pollster but reliable based on past experience:

Hillary Clinton holds a 5-point lead over Donald Trump on the eve of the 2016 election, according to a Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs poll released today.

In a poll of 605 likely voters, Clinton leads Trump 43% to 38%, while Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet leads Republican challenger Darryl Glenn 49% to 38%.

“At the top of the ticket, Trump is failing in two areas seen as critical in presidential election years,” said Chris Keating, president of Keating Research. “He trails Clinton by double digits in the suburban swing counties around Denver, and he performs even worse with Hispanic voters.”

And finally, in a Public Policy Polling survey of “firewall” swing states:

New PPP polls in Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia find Hillary Clinton leading by 5 points in each state in the final rundown to election day.

Clinton leads 48-43 in Colorado, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head match up just between her and Trump, she leads 50-45…

As is happening in battleground states across the country, Clinton’s amassing a large lead in early voting in each of these states. Among those who have already cast their ballots she’s up 52-41 in Colorado, 57-36 in Michigan, and 63-32 in Virginia.

The convergence of these numbers mutually reinforces confidence in them, and the numbers for already-voted respondents in the PPP survey are an increasingly firm indicator. In 2012, Keating Research predicted the presidential race in Colorado closer than anyone else two days before the election: when many other polls were showing Mitt Romney close or even ahead.

We’d therefore call these numbers worth noting–and we’re only a few days from the only poll that matters.

Comments

28 thoughts on “Three New Colorado Polls: Clinton Up 5-6, Bennet Stomping Glenn

    1. Hold on a second here moddy… I'm pretty damn sure that you have recently commented that Drumpf was going to win the election, but now you're saying Hillary is going to get impeached in a few months thus implying that Hillary is going to win.

      Have you been over medicating again?

      1. Maybe they're planning on impeaching her no matter what. Even if Trump were to win. You know, just for the hell of it. It'll feel good. Like repeatedly voting to repeal the ACA.

    2. Just try it, and we're gonna pound your treasonous, traitorous, anti-American, criminal party into the hard ground, you miserable, pathetic, useless excuse for a human being, and a political party…

    3. Knock your socks off with it.

      You saw how effective your boys were when they impeached her husband for fibbing about a blow job in 1998. Newt Gingrich lost his job, the House GOP Conference suffered a net loss of five seats, Bill Clinton finished his second term as one of our most popular presidents, and now he's on the verge of becoming our nation's first First Gentleman.

      Your people have zero credibility. Go ahead, impeach her. See where it gets you.

  1. Magellan also reported the min wage amendment leading by a healthy margin while And 71 ("Raise the bar/save TABOR") up with 51% support thanks to GOP. Hopefully a strong Democratic turnout will defeat this turd of an amendment

      1. This amendment is designed to protect energy companies from anti-fracking amendments — let's be honest.

        the other effect is if it passes, it will be much harder to repeal TABOR, a law that is preventing the state from making the necessary investments in schools and infrastructure. There is a reason all the municipalities in the state have opted out of TABOR. The state should opt out as well.  Hick and Hancock's support has been very disappointing.

        1. Harder than what? Do you see anybody repealing TABOR with the rules we have now? Whatever reasons you have for wanting to maintain the ability to change the constitution as often as you change your underwear, the idea that TABOR is going to be repealed any time in the foreseeable future regardless is a pretty shaky one.

          And even big money won't get enough signatures in every district for most attempts. And not every amendment that gets enough signatures wins even with lots of money behind it either. Take personhood….pulease. Never did much better than losing 3 to 1. 

          There's a reason municipalities have opted out in the form of what amounts to breaks from TABOR but no one has mounted a serious effort at repeal. "Preserving" the pretty much already nonexistent ability to repeal or substantially change TABOR is your side's least convincing argument. Once stuff gets in it's already close to impossible to get it out. 

        2. You're full of beans, Flatiron.  TABOR is so hard to get out of the constitution because of the Single Subject amendment. It was passed on the same ballot as TABOR. That it didn't exist yet was the reason Dougie-poo was able to run that mess to begin with. If there is ever a successful effort to remove it, it will most likely require multiple questions on the same ballot.

        3. You're not "being honest," you're being a shill for special interests.   71 no way makes it harder to repeal tabor.   Everything, including Tabor, that went in under the old rules can come out under the old rules.  I'll be charitable and say you didn't know that.   Or were you deliberately lying?

  2. Now, maybe, you stoopid dimocrats will wake up,

    "Donald Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway admitted to MSNBC’s Brian Williams Thursday night that the Republican presidential candidate’s recent campaign-trail proclamation — that Hillary Clinton faces a “likely indictment” by the FBI — is based on inaccurate reporting. Still, she said, factual or not, “the damage is done to Hillary Clinton.”

    1. And since when have they cared about facts? Although several polls are showing that the damage is already fading. They might want to put the happy dancing on hold.

    2. Every time I see that woman's tired and contorted face on one of the TV interview shows, I have to wonder where her boss rates her on the scale of 1 to 10. And I'm guessing if he should win, there will be nothing lower than an "8" who would be permitted to work in the White House.

      1. Notice how you rarely see Clinton's campaign manager, Robby Mook, getting interviewed.  The media bias is just so obvious this cycle.  CNN had an article on the six ways that Trump can win that has been on the front page of their website for the last week.  No mention of the 270 ways that Clinton can win.  What a bunch of pukes like Moddy.

    1. Got to hand it to Giuliani. It's hard to come across as even more unhinged and less disciplined than Trump but he somehow manages. The mad cackling and crazy eyes help.

      1. That's because Rudy is angling to be A.G. in any possible Drumpf administration. And it narrows down to him or Comey since Jared Kushner and the Bridge-gate verdict the other day take Governor Donuts out of the running.

        What better way to secure the job than by imitating the boss…..

  3. Most disturbing comments in the past week:  John McCain, Ted Cruz, Burr (NC) plus another have said they would not approve any Supreme Court nomination by Hillary Clinton….constitution be damned.  These guys should be run out of the country on a rail for lack of respect for our democracy.  They certainly shouldn't be in Congress! 

    For them, it apparently isn’t love of country (chuck the “patriot” label), but rather love of power and control.

      1. It was reassuring that McCain's colleague who is not up for re-election this year, Jeff Flake, is on record saying that we can't do that. We can't refuse to consider judicial appointments for 4 years if HRC were to win.

        What needs to happen is a block of GOP senators (Collins, Murkowski, Flake, maybe Lindsey Graham) break away and form an separate caucus which votes with the Dems on some issue and with the obstructionist GOP on others.  I don't know if any of them have the balls to go through with anything like that though…..

        In the old days, I would have included McCain in the break away group but he's become craven to suck up to the Tea Baggers in his old age.

        1. And it's hard to figure what McCain is afraid of at this point. At his age, this election is his last dance. He never has to worry about getting himself elected again. Why not go back to being the McCain of old, the maverick respected by all, and go out a statesman? 

          As for Graham, I don't think he'll be much help with the Supreme Court.

          We can only hope that Dems get to at least 50 in the Senate after all and then they need to stop worrying about what might happen with the next R President and go to the nuclear option for Supreme Court appointments.  

          Dems could then try to stock it with young sane center left Justices for as many years as they can keep the Senate under a Dem President.  Demographics, now aided by GOP civil war, will make it harder every four years from now on to elect a Republican to the WH unless the party goes back to its moderate Main Street roots and it will take a lot more than a few years to accomplish that even if they have the will to do it. 

          By then we could have a good Court with plenty of miles left on it and good decisions that will have a long period of precedent behind them.

          Otherwise I fear it will just be a death watch for Bader-Ginsberg and, if she obliges (she very well may not over the next four years), nothing but obstruction while the Rs have a 4/ 3 Court they like.

          1. The only good thing about the Rs not confirming anyone is it'll give the Dems, assuming Ds take the Senate, the ability to invoke the nuclear option and do so with the blessings of a majority of the country.  But it sure would be nice for the system to function the way it is supposed to. 

             

            1. That's still a shaky assumption. HRC with an R House and Senate, I'm afraid, will be even worse than what we've already got. The only thing it will be better than is a Trump presidency or the end of the world as we know it.

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