U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
March 26, 2009 09:52 PM UTC
73 Comments
I think you’re greatly underestimating Frazier’s chances to get the Republican nomination.
With is former campaign manager now the Vice for the GOP, he even has a better shot then a week ago. Frazier is going to be in the top two at the start.
only if his only democratic challenger
is himself.
Republicans are eager to show that they can reach out to minorities. Frazier has made a name for himself as a leader on the anti-union ballot propositions that went up in flames which should endear him to the business wing of the party.
Given his more progressive stances on social issues, as I’ve said before, he will need a multi-candidate field to have his best chance at the nomination. At this point, I’d put him even or ahead of Tancredo and Beauprez and behind Buck…
A year from now, I guarantee Frazier will be the only serious candidate still in the race.
anti-gay, anti-choice republican in the race one-on-one with Frazier will be a serious candidate. There is a hard core base of the party that will not vote for him under any circumstances based on the social issues and they will have a candidate to challenge him.
Not if the only one left is Cleve Tidwell.
in the August primary is dominated by the right-wing fanatics and they will not vote for Mr. Frazier.
Frazier is knocking ’em dead at the Lincoln Day Dinners and the party is hungry. He scores well on charisma and speaking skills. He won’t have it easy, but if he puts together a solid team he stands a decent chance in the primary and would pose a serious threat to Bennett.
They were elected last Saturday to run the party for the next two years. And I’m not just talking about Gholston.
because I do not see him helping Frazier. Are you talking of the secretary?
Bet I can’t knock him down. And when he walks in front of you, you can’t see what’s on the other side. OTOH, I’ve never looked directly into his ear.
In spite of the rhetoric Pols puts up, he stays out of primaries much more than any recent GOP chair.
To U.S. Senate? You’re giving Frazier a lot of unearned credit here.
on Rocky Mountain right against Hillman and Bob. Gholston is the vice-chair and was his campaign manager. He’s minority, business and military experience as well as young. At least move him up to 20-1. You won’t want to make him looking impossibly out of reach of winning and then end up coming in second by a close margin would you?
Well then, let’s put him in the Senate.
We’ll stick with what we’ve said before. Frazier is completely unknown and untested, and the U.S. Senate is wayyy too far out of reach for him. We just don’t see it.
How’s he going to raise $500,000-$1 million on his own? That’s hard enough to do for experienced candidates who have solid connections.
Assuming a winning U.S. Senate campaign is going to cost $10 million, he has to raise $17,543 per day from now until November 2, 2010, and to be credible, he has to raise at least $500,000 this year.
I have never met Mr. Frazier or really know anything about him, except that he is pro-choice (which automatically disqualifies him in the Republican Party), but to gain credibility at the national level, he will have to show substantial fundraising and soon.
I think he’ll win the senate seat, I just think he is a stronger contender for the nomination that y’all are projecting.
He’s every bit as well known as Tom Strickland, a two time unsuccessful nominee for the Senate, before Stickland’s first nomination.
among the GOP power structure … which was plenty sufficient on the other side of the aisle to make a senator out of a relatively unknown Denver schools chief.
You can’t compare Frazier and Bennet.
for a statewide bid for the last eight years — and to see his performance last Friday, he’s learning how to do it.
Frazier and Bennet aren’t comparable as far as qualifications or relevant experience, it’s true, but having Bennet on the ticket takes the inexperience attack off the table, and Frazier is well positioned to take advantage of that.
Believe me – I’m a Bob Schaffer for Senate guy — but there’s no comparison between Frazier and Bennet
Frazier has ACTUALLY knocked on doors and put his name on the ballot – I don’t care if you’re a CEO of a Fortune 100 company — if you haven’t knocked on doors and put your name on a ballot before, then you got little right to think that you can actually serve as a US Senator
I’m starting to re-think my notions about Frazier. Maybe he is toast.
…I’ve knocked on thousands of doors and know what a political landscape looks like
Congrats to you though, RedGreen, if you have knocked on any doors — whatever that number is, I guarantee, it’s higher than Bennet’s – lol
we’re not talking about a race for Avon lady or J’s Witnesses. If you’re a boob, knocking on a door will not change that fact.
that you’re a boob.
…as to why Hasan lost his race for the legislature
on 30,000 doors, he might’ve lost by 10 points, not just 7.
…..some people get out there and beat the pavement, while some dramaqueen on blogs
Our polling showed we were down by 30 points in May of 2008 — we roared to a 4 point lead at the end of Sept of 2008, after knocking on 20,000 doors…. McCain’s support of the bail-out ruined everything after that… that said, I’m a HUGE advocate of knocking on doors and I’ll never apologize for that
However, it doesn’t surprise me that you guys love Bennet so much — arrogant candidates who don’t knock on doors deserve the same type of supporters — if you guys had real sense, you’d jump off the Bennet-bandwagon and draft Romanoff – a guy who REALLY has WORKED for his position by knocking on thousands of doors
But that’s okay…. please, give us Bennet and not Romanoff… us GOPers look forward to eating his (Bennet’s) campaign alive
😉
It’s no surpise that you use the term “dramaqueen” as a verb (and as one word). You are the silliest queen of all. When things were allegedly going well for your campaign, all the credit is due your fabulous door-knocking. When things go sour and you LOSE, it’s all the fault of McCain. Such a inspirational leader you are! I can see why everyone has lined up to support you, given your brave determination to shoulder responsibility.
John McCain’s support of the bail-out ruined Republican campaigns all over America
Technically, yes, a good campaign should win regardless of national outcomes – I will give you that
However – the national Republican officials need to APOLOGIZE for passing that first bail-out — my voicing disappointment with Senator McCain is my way of holding my Party accountable — that’s not dramaqueening, that’s leadership — if it costs me support in the future, then that’s a risk I will gladly take
Ali is young & inexperienced but…
I don’t see him, or anyone else, beating Cary. But I do think if Ali runs & learns from that race – then he’ll be very competitive in his next race.
I’m not so sure his clownish qualities will evolve with age… Any politician that openly uses terms like “hater-aid” and “player” in public deserves to to be identified as a “clown” before “young & inexperienced.”
But hey, I wish him all the best! Cary shouldn’t have to worry about her reelection bid. The last thing I want to see is her 2014 Gubernatorial bid interrupted by a serious challenge in 2010. 🙂
. . . J.J. Ament is the real threat to Cary Kennedy. Not only is he highly qualified for the position, but he has tremendous support within the party and the donor base and fires up the crowd.
Being a compelling candidate who can win independents makes him a threat. Is JJ that candidate?
Your comment speaks to his threats in a primary. Not against our current Treasurer.
http://donmaes.com
My dog has a Facebook page.
Where’s the cite? You might be just making that up.
http://danmaes.com
From most to least. This assumes that in 2 years the public will view us Dems as handling a terrible economy competently.
CD-4 – This is the one truly competitive race in the big line. I think Betsy will win it by 5, but we will have to see. She does seem to be doing everything right so far.
Governor – The GOP is clearly putting it’s focus here so this will be the other tough race. Ritter hasn’t waved a magic wand and created any miracles, but he has done a competent job and has worked to accomplish what is possible to address this mess. Short of a major screw-up, I don’t see this being truly competitive.
That’s it. Senate should be the most competitive race but the GOP appears to be giving Bennet a bye. Everyone else is an incumbent that is highly respected by the voters and there is nothing in play that would cause voters to vote against said incumbent.
On the governor’s race at the expense of the Senate race? What do you base that observation on? And the GOP seems to be giving Bennet a bye? Hardly.
The legislature is in session now, so there will be more derision of Ritter flying in the air most days, but Republicans have been equally belittling Bennet as vulnerable (and fomenting a primary with the help of some disgruntled Dems). There will be big national money pouring into the Senate race, easily matching the oil-and-gas money gunning for Ritter. It’s always easier to take on an appointed incumbent, and the 2010 Senate race in Colorado is no exception.
nationally, but Ritter will be a big target statewide.
All that unspent oil and gas money will fund 527s like we haven’t seen attacking Ritter. (There will be plenty of those attracting national money for the senate race as well). Both races will be expensive, with the Gov’s race being the most expensive Gubernatorial race in CO ever.
But unless energy prices are back up, the appeal from the oil and gas crowd will be mostly to its base.
Thus oil and gas will go big in the Gov’s race, but being only 4% of the economy their impact won’t necessarily be enough to send Penry/McInnis/Holtzman over the top…they have to broaden their base beyond the gaspatch, which isn’t Ritter country to start. Penry’s shilling for indistry in the face of reason and fact doesn’t help in expanding beyond the roughneck/oil exec base.
Fundraising will be extremely difficult for both parties in 2010, given the bad economy. Both sides will have the ability to target maybe 4 – 5 Senate races. Unfortunately for the Republicans, they have to defend open seats in the swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Missouri, as well as blue New Hampshire. An appointed seat like Bennett’s is a tempting target, and there could be an Obama backlash for the Republicans to ride. However, the Dems are well positioned to play defense. The Republicans simply will not have the luxury of pumping up a weak no-name challenger–which appears to be the case now developing in Colorado–on the hopes their candidate catches fire.
The dumbest thing the Democrats could do now is engage in a primary and burn up a lot of cash. Otherwise the Senate seat is safe.
From today’s WP, Headline:
Political Parties See Dramatic Decline in Fundraising
’08 Debts Linger As Recession Slows Giving
By Paul Kane and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, March 27, 2009; Page A03
The one thing that surprises me is that Republican fundraising for the Senate is doing the best.
All the more reason for Colorado Dems to avoid a cash intensive purity test called a primer.
They do a “my lunch with…” interview. (I say this partly in jest but it does have a large element of truth – those interviews get a boatload of views over time.)
Caplis and Maes?
I’m doubtful about Caplis – why would he give up what’s he’s got?
And I’m mystified about Maes – perhaps I just move in different circles, but who is he? Has he ever held a political position- elected or otherwise? Has he ever taken a public stand on anything? Has Colorado ever elected a no-name governor out of nowhere? Have the Colorado R’s ever nominated one to a statewide office?
and don’t waste your time eating lunch with him. He has ZERO experience in politics. He thinks his message will win the race. He doesn’t understand you need lots of volunteers, money, ID, positive media and have to be a good public speaker. A message isn’t enough to win an election anymore.
I presume you mean Meas – does he also realize that immigration enforcement and reform is a federal gig?
with Hispanics. That’s his immigration plan
ever nominated one to a statewide office?
Yes, as have the D’s. Current CU president Bruce Benson had some party experience but was largely unknown outside hardcore GOP circles when he challenged Roy Romer for Romer’s third term in 1994. Democrat Rollie Heath didn’t quite come from nowhere, but he might as well have, when he challenged Bill Owens for his second term in 2002. And pretty much every year since the mid’70s, the R’s nominate some well-ntentioned nobody to run for the 1st CD.
but the examples you give were more in the mix than D. Maes.
I mean why not run for a county gig or even city council? School Board? Anything.
came out of nowhere (at least he’d never held or ran for elective office) to defeat an incumbent Republican senator, serve two terms and mount one and a half campaigns for president. He’d been George McGovern’s campaign manager two years earlier but was hardly a household name when he first ran.
Again, certainly more “in the mix” than Maes, who qualifies as a vanity candidate in the vein of Steve Schuck.
Steve who?
Exactly.
Not the rule. If rising up from nowhere was so easy, it would happen all the time.
otherwise. Madco’s question was whether it had ever happened in Colorado.
Look, you’ve got a lot of “rumored” candidates and others “unlikely to run” (Marostica); why wouldn’t you include Romanoff in the Big Line for Senate? Everybody knows he’s giving it VERY serious consideration. He’s talking to everybody he meets about running.
If ColoradoPols is going to be taken seriously in the future, it has got to be even-handed with Democratic primaries just as much as with Republican primaries.
they will soon enough
…where there is a Republican incumbent. Why should Pols do so for Dems? Especially when no Dems have announced their intention to primary an incumbent.
… and also untrue. I recall that when there was talk of primarying Musgrave, Pols put some names up there of Republicans in the 4th CD. When there was talk of Republican challengers to Lamborn, the 5th CD line listed them, too.
The excuse is lame because there aren’t enough Republican incumbents left to make that a serious statement, and there haven’t been any serious talk of a Republican primary of any of those this year.
…Look to the left side of the screen. As to what happened in the past, I don’t know, but your original complaint was directed to today’s line. So my comment was directed to that line.
As to whether the talk of a Dem Senate primary is serious, I don’t know. But I do know that having the same old people repeat the same old rumors, again and again, doesn’t make something serious.
but, seriously…we’re talking about a fake betting line here. If you’re using the accuracy of a fake line on a blog to determine how “seriously” to take said blog, you’ve got some mighty interesting priorities, IMO…
But hey, throwing Romanoff into the mix isn’t such a bad idea…
would run for the Senate against Bennet?
primaries get nasty on both sides. Romanoff would win and then he would probably win the Senate Seat.
Running for Senate takes about 18 months of fundraising – the clock is ticking…
They must have been as they are not shown on the BIG LINE.
It is sad that Colorado Pols refuses to recognize that the Commies and Fascists represent 1+ million people in Colorado.
get over it. No one cares about CD-1 or 5. I think they could actually take CD-2 off there too. I mean, Perlmutter and Salazar are safe too, but those districts are at least potentially competitive. Coffman, district is trending so might be worth keeping up there.
But really just get over it.
How so?
Coffman won by a large margin. Bigger than Tancredo won his last time.
What trend are you looking at?
I see it staying here or getting more R.
now has more registered Ds than Rs. Jeffco’s (south Jeffco is in CD-6, right?) trend to blue has been maybe the single biggest reason Dems are winning statewide in Colorado now. Don’t know about Elbert county or any other portions of the district, but it’s moving. Slowly, maybe not enough to ever elect a D there, but still, could be competitive soon.
davebarnes ALWAYS does this, each and every time there’s some update. Either he’s mad or this is some kind of personal joke.
that he’s the Fourth Pol, who split with the group over just such an argument?
So you’re saying petebest is also mad?!?