The special election to fill appointed Senator Gillbrand’s seat in the US House in taking place tomorrow.
Though the district has a 70,000 Republican voter registration advantage, Obama carried this district and recent polling suggests that the race will be close.
Both sides have nationalized the race on either acceptance or a rejection of Obama’s economic policies, but the race will come down to a couple of factors.
One: Tone
The Republican candidate came out of the gate swinging at his Democratic opponent. The tone quickly became negative, and the Democratic candidate started gaining ground. The Republican tried to improve the tone of the race, but the damage was already done. Now the campaigns are trading accusations of being pro-AIG bonuses or stalling economic recovery.
Two: Turnout
It’s pretty basic-who will turn out? Democrats are going to need to run a good turnout effort to over come the kind of disadvantage that they face-which is why Democrats are painting this as a referendum on Bush, Palin, and Limbaugh. But who is more motivated? Democrats looking for blood, or Republicans looking for a bright spot?
So the dye is cast, and who do you think is going to win?
My prediction coming later today
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Forgive me for not knowing which side you’re on … or do you mean the American people will lose this one?
I think Scott Murphy wins this 54-46%
N.Y. has numerous minor parties on the ballot and Independence Party (the local affiliate of Ross Perot’s Reform Party) is still active in N.Y. and well financed.
And Murphy has the Independence Party line (not sure about the WFP, he may have theirs as well).
I believe it’s just Jimmy Disco and Murphy on the ballot tonight though.
endorsed Murphy.
I had read that there was a minor party candidate on the ballot some weeks back. So it was the libertarian and they struck his name? Then my guess is that the %’s will have to add up to 100. I say Murphy 51%, Jimmy Disco 49%
Murphy probably rec’d the WFP endorsement.
He was polling at 2%, seemingly taking equally from R’s and D’s. Tedisco challenged his signatures and succeeded in getting him off the ballot, which seems to be the only reason Sundland endorsed Murphy.
N.Y. has numerous minor parties on the ballot and Independence Party (the local affiliate of Ross Perot’s Reform Party) is still active in N.Y. and well financed.
…any bets on how much longer Michael Steele stays on as RNC Chair?
My guess is that if Murphy wins and the next quarterly report shows fundraising down, Steele is shown the door.
R’s aren’t going to throw Steele under the bus, unless they’re linked to the second place finisher. They’re a bunch of sore losers…and Steele hasn’t stepped in it lately. He’s regaining ground regardless of what happens tonight.
I think that the “Get Rid of Michael Steele” chorus begins in earnest about 24 hours after (I’m giving the people credit over the pundits).
Cong. Murphy will be a good Representative for Albany and it’s surrounding areas. Jim Tedisco can keep his job in the state legislature.
Though, I’ll say it here: Jim Tedisco would have won this race by 5-8 points had he said he would’ve voted for the stimulus package. R’s still would’ve voted for him and Indies would’ve been less put off.
To be fair, the RCCC (and a couple outside crazy groups) has had far more to do with Tedisco’s fortunes in this race than the RNC, and it’s only a few prominent Republicans who have tied this race around Steele’s neck.
anyone found a place that’s posting them? No major network is yet
Results updated regularly here:
http://blogs.timesunion.com/ca…
It looks like Murphy 51% and Tesdesco 49%. The Albany paper is also reporting that “Jimmy Disco” may lose his job as state Assembly Minority Leader after this is over.
http://blogs.timesunion.com/ca…