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May 15, 2009 12:08 AM UTC
44 Comments
There may not be a military solution. It could turn into another Vietname quagmire.
No presence in the region, however, may embolden the Jihadists.
Damned if you do. Damned if you don’t.
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others who campaigned against dumb wars have changed now that they are in office and in charge of those dumb wars.
Bullets and bombs are the best tools for defeating a force that’s trying to invade our shores.
But for what we need to accomplish in Afghanistan, seed corn and immunizations are more appropriate tools.
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The only factors that disturb me about the Taliban is the threat to Israel, and it’s complete rejection of Western lifestyle.
A nuclear Taliban is not a soothing picture.
Would a diplomatic and economic presence help the moderates more than a military presence? If there are no good guys in the region then what hope do we have for a peaceful future?
by Thomas Ricks. It just came out. He also wrote “Fiasco” about the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath.
It’s the story of the surge in Iraq, its successes, and its failures. Basically, the successes were military, the failures political. It’s well written and informative. I strongly recommend giving it a read. It has a lot to say about where and what should happen in Iraq.
Assuming you count individual acts of valor while the PA Officers were handing out billions in cash to Sunni insurgents behind the scenes, sure!
Otherwise the only military successes in Iraq were that the Pentagon managed to use the “surge” to defeat Rumsfeld’s “transformational war” model. Coincidentally, Gates is trying this again for Afghanistan. You think, just maybe, he’s figured out a way to get out of this administration and back to a cushy job in the private sector?
Rumsfeld was right, Gates is right, and as weird as it sounds to lump these guys together, Polis will be proved right: “We cannot achieve peace through the occupation of an entire country.” Those days are over, and have been since 1965. The question is whether we can get the Five Sided Puzzle Palace to accept that it’s the 21st Century.
Those are all good points and they are discussed in the book. Equating the Pentagon with the surge, according to Ricks, is to have it exactly opposite to what happened. I tend to believe Ricks. He has a long track record.
It’s a book I highly recommend for anyone concerned about Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, the Middle East, politics, and just about anything to do with national security. It does not paint a pretty picture. There are no easy outs. We created a mess in Iraq and didn’t finish Afghanistan. I don’t like sending in the military to try to fix something that is ultimately civil. I hope that between Petraeus and Obama and Congress that some of them listen to the NGOs in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Military force will not win in these situations.
A man who campaigns on a platform and a principle–and sticks to them once in office. Put him on the endangered species list!
It occurred to me while watching the video accompanying the NYT piece out of Afghanistan this morning by C. J. Chivers that the “insurgents” live in that valley, they aren’t going anywhere, and can very easily outlast us! This isn’t the Russians invading Afghanistan; it’s the Americans. Whatever problems Afghanistan…and Pakistan…have, and God knows they’ve got plenty, we are not going to be able to solve them by invading. I don’t like the Pashtun Taliban any more than I like the Colorado Springs Taliban–but I don’t expect Afghan soldiers to come help CD5 see its way clear to electing someone to my liking any time soon.
between the Taliban and Colorado Springs is that they aren’t executing school teachers and others in Colorado Springs. Or blowing up schools.
Are you really saying that if there was an armed group, besides the Air Force, running around Colorado Springs, killing, looting, and making a mess of things, you don’t think the police or military should respond? We should just leave them to it?
I like hyperbole as much as anyone, but when people are dying, it seems in questionable taste at best.
We all have our style…and I don’t mean writing. Example: “Let’s include the Bible in biology classes–after all, evolution is just a ‘theory.'” Not a brick out of line…but the school is “blown up” just the same.
I wonder whether members of the GBLT community feel comfortable buying beers in Colorado Springs. Do they in Laramie, Wyoming?
What is the impact of intolerance a la James Dobson (“Agents of Satan, these liberal Democrats in the White House and Congress! Driving our country to destruction. I won’t even encourage you to write your congressman. It’s hopeless.”) on some of our less gifted citizens to whom it surely appeals? “Oh, the reverend’s hand wasn’t on the trigger–he’s blameless.”
Does distribution of Bibles in Urdu in Afghanistan, encouraged by some members of the Army chaplain corps, have anything–anything at all–to do with helping the Taliban (Afghan) and Al Qaeda recruit fighters? “Nah, the bible doesn’t teach eye-for-an-eye–well, not the New Testament, anyway. Must be thinking of the Koran! And how can you compare handing out a Bible to handing out a recruiting poster? Completely different things! For starters, we’re doing one, they’re doing the other!”
Taliban kill dozens. U.S. bombs kill dozens. The difference? They meant to pull the trigger, we didn’t. Hmmmm.
Matters of style. Suit-and-tie, clean-shaven versus chupans and beards. Throw acid on girls going to school versus give mythology the sheen of science. Who was in charge of Abu Ghraib? Bagram? Waterboarding–a Taliban technique. Ooops, I’m thinking of something else.
Being literal minded has its limits.
Someone’s shooting up a town. Do you want the police and / or army to respond in an appropriate way?
(Or do they respond in a metaphorical way…?)
In Colorado Springs, where I don’t live, I suppose I would want the police from Colorado Springs to respond in the appropriate way.
In Kabul, where I also don’t live, I would leave it to the Afghans to respond in the appropriate way. Nasty business, no question. So is starvation in Darfur, industrial pollution in Ecuador (and everywhere else), extrajudicial murder by the state in Chile (oh, forgot, Pinochet was our guy). As discussed at great length below, Pakistan (and India, for that matter) is a made-up state with make-believe borders drawn in London. Going after Al Qaeda is one thing–but the way we’re going about it has proved to be a giant boost to Islamists everywhere.
If Alexander the Great couldn’t make a go of it in Afghanistan, what makes you think George Bush, or Barack Obama, or James Dobson (to name one denizen of the Spugs) can?
execute Palestinians and steal their land? Are you for justice then JO or are we only talking about justice when the bad guys worship Allah?
..you’re asking me about this. I’m not a reflexive supporter of Israel, or of the Palestinians. Israel is only special because of the circumstances in which it was organized–the Holocaust, and the collective failure of Europe and the U.S. to take action to prevent it, down to and including opening borders to enable emigration. It does NOT follow that Israeli settlers 65+ years later should move into the West Bank at will. [More attention needs to be paid to the circumstances of Liebermann’s arrival in Israel from Moldova and his subsequent move into the West Bank.] Nor does it follow that the United States has done Israel’s security any favor by blindly supporting whatever reactionary policies Netanyahu/Sharon/Olmert/Netanyahu-Liebermann might dream up in a cocoon of imagining that Washington would always be there. It’s not lost on me that over time, the Jews and the Palestinians have in effect traded places on the Sympathetic Scale.
I really do.
I’m so torn about the Afghan war, mostly because I feel the same way about it that Ray Springfield feels–damned if you do; damned if you don’t. It’s geographical proximity to Pakistan, which is now so fragile, makes me think twice about leaving, particularly because despite what Obama says, I do not feel confident that Pakistan has secured its nuclear weapons.
I’m also deeply troubled by the poverty in Afghanistan, the life expectancy, the high rate of death in childbirth, the level of illiteracy and the ways in which women have been treated under Taliban rule. How can we walk away from this country? What can we do to help? Does our military presence actually hurt them more than help?
On the other hand, I don’t think we belong in Afghanistan anymore and that the sooner we get out of there, the better. I truly believe this is Obama’s Vietnam, compliments of the Bush administration.
I don’t know what the hell the solution is for Afghanistan but in the long run I don’t think American foreign policy and troops should be part of the solution. Most European countries won’t go near Afghan with a 10 foot pole which only proves how much smarter they are. Good God, if the Russians lost there, what hope in hell do we have? And what is our goal there? Obviously, it’s not nearly as far reaching as Bush’s lofty goals for the region but even Obama’s stated goals for “success” sound impractical.
One thread linking Taliban on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan “border” is being ethnic Pashtuns, as opposed to Punjabis. Gotta wonder whether this is a more important element driving the conflict–and a prospective settlement– than generally acknowledged. Nor is this the only ethnic division in Pakistan. Might the secession of (now) Bangladesh also be relevant here? Very possibly Islam is not quite as important as it seemed to be in 1948/49, or as we might be led to believe 60 years later. The border, after all, isn’t something from ancient history; it dates (like so many other issues in that part of the world) from the Empire and its further reaches, as determined in London–not in the Himalayas.
Do believe the good Barron may have some insights of value on this topic.
that came up in a BBC report that I caught part of the other day–since Pakistan was created, the military has moved the majority of its troops, well over a million soldiers, to guard the eastern border, leaving the rest of the country pretty much at the mercy of any disgruntled faction.
At this point, despite the bad blood between Pakistan and India, I think Pakistan can pretty much guarantee itself that India isn’t about to invade them and that the Kashmir border isn’t going anywhere either. So why continue to place the vast majority of your military where they are least needed? Why not send them over to the northwestern section of the country, where tens of thousands of civilians are presently evacuating their homes to run away from the full scale war being waged?
I see a major part of the problem in Pakistan to be the inherent weakness in the civilian government, which is struggling to incorporate democratic ideals, while the military is the true ruler of the country. The civilian government just can’t get a foothold, not when the military has a stranglehold. And by all accounts, the military is often in cahoots with the militants that are crossing back and forth between Afghanistan.
I don’t know much at all about the Bangladesh aspect–could you share more info on that, if you have the time?
In the process of granting independence to British India, predominantly Muslim areas demanded their own country. These included far western British India (now Pakistan) and the far east (Bangladesh), which initially comprised one country with two disconnected wings. Mass migration, especially Muslims into Pakistan. The “eastern Pakistanis” subsequently waged a war for independence with India’s help (for whatever strategic reasons), in 1971. India’s involvement in that civil war/secession of East Pakistan further solidified Pakistan’s deep suspicion of Delhi (they have, after all, fought three wars, and when India developed nuclear weapons in the 80s, Pakistan immediately assumed it was for use against Pakistan; who else?)
Pakistan’s entire rationale as a country was a common religion (and not entirely common, at that, since Sindh province is mostly Shiite–and a separate ethnic group, of whom Benazir Bhutto was the most famous). In addition to the Pashtuns/Taliban, there is also an active independence movement in Baluchistan (the western province nearest Iran) which also comprises a separate ethnic group with members living in Iran–one main reason, presumably, that Tehran takes an active interest in Afghanistan, lest a secessionist movement take hold in southern Iran as well!
For a very long time, the Taliban were a feature of the so-called Federally Administered Tribal Areas–the borderlands with Pakistan where Islamabad has never exercised any real power except to claim it as Pakistani territory on the map. Further complicating the picture is the fact that Afghanistan, too, is divided among ethnic groups–Pashtun 42%, mostly in the south, Tajik 27%, Hazara 9%, Uzbek 9%, Aimak 4%, Turkmen 3%, and Baloch 2%. Hence the “Northern Command” which was largely along ethnic lines in the civil war following the Taliban takeover of Kabul in the 90s).
On the subject of the Pakistan Army’s obsession with India, I offer the ongoing tensions between Russia and USA almost 20 years after the breakup of the USSR as a rough parallel in terms of how the military is focused on not taking its eye off known foes. The European missile defense shield flap is an example on the Russian side.
Since 2001 India has been very active in Afghanistan…opening numerous consulates, for example, and engaging in a variety of economic and development projects. How come? Certainly this has touched off renewed suspicions by the Pakistan military if not civilian government.
The conflict in Afghanistan/Pakistan/Kashmir (the third of these being another chronic conflict between Pakistan and India) is much more complex than merely “Islamist fundamentalists” versus democracy-loving clients of the United States.
Thank you. Seriously. I’m saving this to reread. I tend to speed read, to my detriment and I want to take my time with this one. I’ll get back to you in a bit if I have questions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
thanks
What makes the situation more frustrating is that the majority of the Al Qaeda presence in “Pashtunistan” is on the Pakistani side, where we can cannot engage in overt military action.
I think the best way to “fight” this enemy is through special forces and diplomacy. I am not convinced that the ongoing occupation of Afghanistan leads to the defeat of Al Qaeda, which is the reason for our presence in the area.
Congressman Jared Polis
In a separate question, how do suggest the best way to stabilize the Pakistani Government presents itself?
My understanding is that the Taliban are 60 miles outside of the capitol.
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The river running through the length of Pakistan is the Indus, from whence derive the names “Hindu” and “Indo.” It rises in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, bisects Pakistani-administered Jammu and Kashmir, and flows right down the spine of Pakistan proper.
A little like Kossovo’s place in Serbian history, what are now the Sindh and Punjabi Provinces of Pakistan were considered backwaters by India, until someone else laid claim to them.
For a preview of wars over water, which I’ve not yet seen in the West, or even in Syria/Turkey,
look at what is happening on 7 Indian rivers that flow northwest, from Indian Punjab through Pakistani Punjab to the Indus.
While it is true that Western media does not report on this war, or the war for control of Kashmir, they rage on nonetheless.
I believe that the recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai were an offshoot of unconventional warfare over Kashmir.
I believe that if Pakistan looks like its government is shaky, and its Army without direction, then irredentist Indians will demand that their government reclaim what is rightfully theirs, both in Kashmir and to the South.
I believe that a war with India is a much bigger threat to Pakistan than 15,000 Talibs throwing stones.
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Our adversaries in Af-Pak aren’t so much the radical extremist terrorist-types.
The folks giving us the most trouble are illiterate shepherds who don’t even know what day it is. They are just fighting to be left alone.
I think it’s awful how they treat girls and women, but I don’t think we are going to change their culture, values, religion, world view, or minds by killing them.
All that accomplishes is that they are then dead, leading to other problems.
To be clear, we are warring against the Pashtun people, not so much the Afghan people. There are about 10 Million of them in Southern and Eastern Afghanistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan, and they are a medieval people.
The rest of the 40 million Pashtuns in the world live in the rest of Pakistan, driven by decades of war toward Pakistani cities for food and now jobs. These 30 million have had their lives turned upside down, but they are adjusting to life in the 18th Century. For reference, I don’t think there were ANY Pashtuns in non-FATA Pakistan in 1970. That’s a population of 30 million with no roots and no representation, ripe for exploitation.
My opinion, ignorant though it may be:
the best way to win over those 10 million Pashtuns who are fighting us is to give their 30 million cousins living in Pakistan proper better access to education, health care and economic opportunity.
This is a war that can only be won with “soft” power. As a former Green Beret, I am saddened to see Special Forces being employed as a combat force. Yes, that’s the fall back mission, but what really makes them “special” is their ability to wield the power of American ingenuity and persistence, the first fruits of which are NOT weapons.
I wish we could deploy aid and development workers without guns; that’s impractical.
But my next wish was that the guns were there to enable the aid and development programs, rather than the aid and development programs being used as a justification to deploy and employ overwhelming combat power.
Somebody stop me. I could bore you with another 5,000 words, but who could wade through it ?
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I really appreciate you taking the time to give me the info. Seriously, big thanks.
…in an easy to absorb format, try the BBC 4-part series “Traffick” (with a k, not to be confused with the American spinoff “Traffic”) available on DVD on the subject of Pakistani (now shifted to Afghanistan) heroin trafficking.
Appreciate it.
Made in 1989 and has pretty good ratings, too. Again, thanks for the tip.
…you’ll see the initials NWFP (North West Frontier Province) and Swat painted on various police vehicles. And although I don’t think the word Pashtun is heard, I’m confident that one of the lead characters is just that. Perhaps Barron X has an opinion on that as it is he who knows rather a lot about the internal workings of Pakistan.
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I think a little modesty on my part is called for.
Until last September, all I knew about Pakistan was that
1) one of her more industrious sons came to Pueblo, founded an HMO, sold it at a profit, and endowed the Seeme and Malik Hasan Graduate School of Business on the Belmont Campus; and
2) one of the mobilization scenarios in Air Command and Staff College in the mid-1990’s called for an Air Force Expeditionary Unit to deploy there, and I worked with my class through the exercise.
Then I got a contract from the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University to create some maps for a briefing book DOD Secretary Gates was putting together to brief his replacement: Global Strategic Assessment 2009. What an education.
INSS (not to be confused with INSS, at the USAFA) is the Secretary of Defense’s own think tank, complete with about 50 Fellows and Scholars and so forth, some of the top experts on military and foreign policy.
As far as the maps go, getting the borders right was simple. Explaining their significance was not.
It took the top expert in DoD on Pakistan about 5 major revisions of the accompanying text until I got it right.
The main lessons I took away:
***Pakistan is a functioning democracy. Faces and names at the top will change; 155 million Sindhis and Punjabis are not about to cede control of their country to what they consider to be a small number of illiterate hicks.
***Think of the Pashtuns in the FATA as really being Afghanis. Nobody respects the border in that area.
***Think of the Pashtuns in the rest of NWFP as having mostly abandoned their old way of life and eager to participate in Pakistani life. They are not anxious to have the tribal ways that held them back before they fled follow them into their new lives.
***Understand the very real fear Pakistan has of India. It has driven them into the arms of China.
***Until the Kashmir referendum is finally held, that war will never end.
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Guests Juan Cole and Shahan Mufti:
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/jour…
One excerpt:
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thanks for the link, Dog Man.
I requested his new book through the library a month ago, and I’m #1 on the list, but they haven’t purchased it yet.
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I’ve applied for a job with USAID to work spending that $1.5B Obama mentioned. I’d suspend my business for the chance to contribute to that.
If anyone else is interested, check out https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=op…
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(a) Nothing like being a rapid learner; (b) being an “old hand” (no, not me) can be one of the very biggest handicaps I can think of in terms of understanding a new situation. Nice to know, btw, that Gates et al. have the benefits of informed, intelligent analysis; hopefully they’ll listen to that instead of the more purely politicos.
Anyway, there seems to be something to be said for suggesting Pashtunistan, and convincing Pakistan they’d be better off without it. Afghanistan is something else; they essentially, or largely, are Pastunistan with a few bits tacked on in the North, none of which make any particular sense belonging in the same entity. Maybe the present “Afghanistan” needs simply to go away in favor of Pashtalibistan, with freedom to get the hell out before the 12th Century Curtain comes down on anyone with a daughter or aspirations to live in one of the recent centuries. Uzbeks (another interesting subject, to be sure) and Tazhiks welcome to join that own ‘stans.
Meantime, rather interesting how the domestic politics of all this are changing before our eyes, in real time. Before the election, it was Barack who opposed Iraq, Hillary supported it. Now, Iraq has disappeared and Barack has become synonymous with Afghanistan, while the Left/Anti-War camp is starting to think about drifting away from Obama. Ominous all around.
We Colorado Springs Talibs appreciate that you recognize our Fourth Amendment rights.
I personally am flattered that you, JO, recognize that my government needs my consent to be legitimate (“just powers [derived] from the consent of the governed.”)
But how in the world do such universal principles apply to the people I may not like, or those who look and dress funny, or to people who don’t even speak English ?
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I had a little trouble posting Arabic script.
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…”derive their just powers from the consent of bankers and CEOs earning $1 million an up…”
Roll out your prayer rug, brother. And further enlighten us re Afghanistan/Pakistan/Kashmir.
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about the security of Pakistan’s 20 or so nuclear weapons.
A Pakistani news site (not Dawn) reported last year on protests against the US Air Force positioning a 60-strong nuke escort unit just a couple of hundred yards from where they are stored.
That’s not enough to fend of a concerted ground attack, but plenty enough to call in appropriate munitions to rain down on any party that should breach security. You can rest assured that we have weapons platforms over the area pretty much 24/7, either enroute from the Indian Ocean, or loitering on Combat Air Patrol over Afghanistan.
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Khalid Banuri is Director Arms Control & Disarmament Affairs at Strategic Plans Division in Pakistan – kbanuri@gmail.com.
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The Shah was quite comfortably militarily protected for years.
I can see the arguments for voting either way on this issue. Jared made a very thoughtful and intelligent analysis and laid out why he voted against. And then followed through on a campaign promise.
I thnk the why he voted was as important as the vote itself and it is realyl nice to see someone who thinks things through, and then walks us through their thought process.
Cut and run traitor. Exactly what Boulder deserves.
you might have to call him Governor one of these days.
with your little spitballs playing pretend that they are RPGs, hurrying home for warm milk and cookies to be tucked into bed in your spiderman pjs…
How exactly is a Congressman voting on a bill being a ‘traitor’? Or are you suggesting that votes in Congress should only have the possibility of a ‘yes’?
Those are some good (un)American values you have their GOPwannabe.
The Union army should have kept trying at Fredricksburg rather that retreating…
Sort of a waste, though, in that G. W. Bush already convinced the majority of Americans that Republicans aren’t terribly intelligent or sophisticated thinkers, if “thinkers” is the word we want. (Maybe “pre-evolutionary twitchers,” which goes along with opposition to teaching about Darwin and discovery–not theory–of evolution; turns out some of our neighbors haven’t evolved and hate to think that others have! Havabanana, Rush! ) Nevertheless, thanks for the reminder–all the more valuable coming at the bottom of an otherwise civil and intelligent discussion.