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June 20, 2009 06:40 PM UTC
45 Comments
More at http://niacblog.wordpress.com/… which shows police being pushed back by people throwing rocks.
And another video of a group marching. Not that large but they are facing no police and it’s sizable so the police clearly can’t respond everywhere.
This is not the quiet gentle crowds we saw yesterday. The body language I see there is people read to fight back if pushed.
Please set your location as Tehran and your time as GMT+4:30 – makes it harder for the government there to track down people reporting from Iran by account properties.
No offense, but I’d imagine they have more important things to do.
The idea is to have people here in Colorado use those settings. The ones in Tehran already have that setting.
CNN (when they step up, they’re superb) – http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/20…
When I turned on TV to check out what was going was stunned to find CNN had all day coverage while MSNBC was running the same tired old weekend diet of documentaries.
I’m not going to link to “sources” I get this from because this is all originating from the brave people in Iran.
1. Tehran metro reported shut down.
2. Cell phone service reported turned off
3. Numerous reports of helicopters dousing crowds with tear gas.
4. European embassies are accepting injured to treat & protect them.
5. Numerous reports of fighting and people being killed coming in from all over the place.
A couple of observations. First, Iran cannot survive having the country shut down for a couple of weeks. No metro & no cell service means no business.
With the embassies becoming a place of refuge the government can no longer call European countries the enemy. This will change Iran’s relationship with the West.
The fact that everyone is telling everyone else the government is killing many people will be the biggest factor driving this for the next couple of days. It removes all legitimacy of the existing government.
Normally I agree with not posting stuff like this but in the case of Iran right now, if they are brave enough to march in the face of this, we can at a minimum see what the government is doing to the Iranian people.
who says she got it from the HuffPo (but didn’t give a link)):
It’s just heartbreaking.
This is of not for two reasons. First the obvious one that the people are winning some battles. But equally important, the police ran away rather than open fire. And it is that second item that is more important in terms of winning this revolt.
Someone please update including w/ pictures from the rally in Denver
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a shoving match broke out on the sidewalk along Lincoln around 12:30;
the first Denver Police Cruiser responded in less than 15 seconds.
There were 10 Police vehicles within 2 minutes.
I heard later that a handful of supporters of Ahmadinejad were the spark that got up to 15 people shoving and swinging fists.
Otherwise it was fairly uneventful.
I didn’t understand why most flags displayed had the old ‘lion holding a sword with the Sun rising in the back’ logo, pre-1980. Not the current flag. I wonder if these were people who wanted a return to monarchy ?
Photos on the TV websites. Two were there for over an hour. Mike Littwin worked the crowd.
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http://www.9news.com/news/arti…
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http://www.cbs4denver.com/vide…
this actually has a shot of me and my oldest son in the background.
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http://www.denverpost.com/litt…
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who were well connected under the Shah and came here after the 1979 revolution that kicked him out, with the US having imposed that regime on Iran, crushing their fledgling democratic movement, back in 1953. Doubt that many of the protestors in Iran want a return of the foreign imposed Peacock Throne.
But am just guessing at the significance of what you describe. Could just be ancient respected symbol of Persia. I do know a few Iranian expats who were in the upper echelons of Iranian society under the Shah and do dream of the return (for the privileged few) of the good old days.
They were raised in a very westernized manner, educated in Europe and America and dressed, drank and partied like wealthy (extremely) Europeans and Americans. It was even fashionable to become Christian. I’m betting their Iran is never coming back.
It will take a bit of time to tell but I think the revolution in Iran may have tremendous impact on our world.
First, the entire world is watching and supporting an incredibly brave people face down a corrupt & repressive regime. These people are clearly heroes. And they are Muslim, Middle Eastern, and most people assume Arabic. Just as having an African-American in the White House fundamentally changes people’s view of African-Americans, this fundamentally changes people’s views of Middle-Eastern Muslims. This puts us on the road to being able to establish a strong relationship of equals.
Second, the protesters are not looking to turn Iran into a secular Jeffersonian democracy. But they are looking to turn it into a liberal Muslim state that follows the rule of law. How and to what degree they choose to seperate church & state will be very different from what we did. But keep in mind what we have today is very different from what we first had in the elightenment. The important thing is they are starting down this road. And they have learned that religious leaders, like every other human being, will misuse absolute power.
Third, we now have a swath of countries – Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, & Palestine that are learning how to be democracies. 20 years ago there was not even a glimmer of democratic movement in the middle east. And Iran, unlike every other example, is doing this on its own with no support or encouragement from the U.S. Every remaining regime in the middle east has to be scared shitless by this because their people could choose to do the same thing – totally on their own.
Video from BBC Persia – watch it
The tactical victory, the protestor’s run the police off at the end.
The strategic victory – the police run away rather than fire on the crowd.
I wonder how many of the police have wives and/or children that they know are out protesting.
Bravery of protestors inspirational and so heartening that the police did not fire on the crowd. The movement may be so wide spread that, as you say, many police do have friends and family involved in the protests. Or they just aren’t hard core enough to go for killing people who aren’t trying to kill them. Or both. It certainly doesn’t look this is going to sputter out with a whimper.
From tweets:
from Iran’s state-funded PressTV
BBC is reporting that the thousands of security officials deployed did the trick and the protests have been cleared.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/mid…
Kind of figured it would end up this way. There is just no way that 1,000s of protesters could match heavy duty armed resistance when push came to, well, bullets I suppose. Disappointing but predictable.
I don’t think this is close to over. And if they continue this level of supression the economy goes in the toilet.
I think it’s premature to say the revolution has begun, and it’s also premature to say the protests are over. Since there’s nothing any of us can (or should) do to affect what’s going on, we might as well be patient.
but I find it hard to see how the protests can continue. I think your other comment is spot on comparing this to China. It seems that so many people want to draw comparisons to 1979 or 1776, but we have established that there is no help coming for these protesters from outside of Iran or within. Given that, it seems that the people with the guns are laying down the law and this is going to be it.
But I’ll admit I may be calling this a little early, but it just seems to be the inevitable ending to this. Whether it’s today or two weeks seems irrelevant.
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one Iran expert said that if the protests didn’t fizzle out in 2 weeks, then real change would follow.
He sure didn’t expect the government to fold in a day or two.
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1,000s of security forces count as folding? I can see no angle in which the government folded as as result of these actions. To stretch the metaphor, it seems more like the protesters laid down their hand once they realized that the Ayatollah and the government held all the cards.
Also, who is this “Iran expert” and what logic or proof did s/he offer to warrant this rather bizarre claim. What would “real change” even mean? Why is 2 weeks the magic number? And why on earth did they ever think that the Ayatollah and the conservatives would ever cede power and/or victory?
Color me cynical, but I feel like these, admittedly impressive protests, were over-hyped by the media into a non-existent and ultimately futile attempt at “revolution” or “change” or whatever other headline selling word you prefer.
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not yet.
If I remember who the source was, I’ll post a link. Real change could include a true “quietist” jurisprudence.
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/…
The current dictator in Iran isn’t recognized by other Grand Ayatollahs as a legit Ayatollah; he is a political Ayatollah.
Grand Ayatollahs in Qom and Najaf (Sistani) think the religious leaders should not exercise day-to-day control. They believe Khameni is a heretic, in a sense.
Real change might mean the clerics letting lay people run the country, and only providing guidance and oversight.
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Especially including oil industry workers. If they can pull off a crippling strike then we’ll see where it goes from there. If that fizzles, it’s hard to see where this goes accept underground for the time being.
The iranian Refined Prodcuts Sanction Act woulld put more pressure on the regme
would delegitimize the entire protest movement.
I think Barron’s point about Khameni being somewhat of a heretic to the other Grand Ayatollahs is very intriguing and it would be interesting (I think) to see what happens to all this if they started putting muscle on Khameni. Unfortunately it’s hard for me to believe that they would push the Iranian government towards reform or support of the protesters.
Barring that, we saw again today that the security forces will just disband any continuing protests, with force if necessary. I think that is a pretty clear indication that no serious movement ever did or will get off the ground over there for the time being.
I voted for you as editor
more STRATOR:
“The clerics are divided among themselves, but many wanted to see Ahmadinejad lose to protect their own interests. Khamenei, the supreme leader, faced a difficult choice last Friday. He could demand a major recount or even new elections, or he could validate what happened. Khamenei speaks for a sizable chunk of the ruling elite, but also has had to rule by consensus among both clerical and non-clerical forces. Many powerful clerics like Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani wanted Khamenei to reverse the election, and we suspect Khamenei wished he could have found a way to do it. But as the defender of the regime, he was afraid to. Mousavi supporters’ demonstrations would have been nothing compared to the firestorm among Ahmadinejad supporters – both voters and the security forces – had their candidate been denied. Khamenei wasn’t going to flirt with disaster, so he endorsed the outcome.
The Western media misunderstood this because they didn’t understand that Ahmadinejad does not speak for the clerics but against them, that many of the clerics were working for his defeat, and that Ahmadinejad has enormous pull in the country’s security apparatus. The reason Western media missed this is because they bought into the concept of the stolen election, therefore failing to see Ahmadinejad’s support and the widespread dissatisfaction with the old clerical elite. The Western media simply didn’t understand that the most traditional and pious segments of Iranian society support Ahmadinejad because he opposes the old ruling elite. Instead, they assumed this was like Prague or Budapest in 1989, with a broad-based uprising in favor of liberalism against an unpopular regime.
Tehran in 2009, however, was a struggle between two main factions, both of which supported the Islamic republic as it was. There were the clerics, who have dominated the regime since 1979 and had grown wealthy in the process. And there was Ahmadinejad, who felt the ruling clerical elite had betrayed the revolution with their personal excesses. And there also was the small faction the BBC and CNN kept focusing on – the demonstrators in the streets who want to dramatically liberalize the Islamic republic. This faction never stood a chance of taking power, whether by election or revolution. The two main factions used the third smaller faction in various ways, however. Ahmadinejad used it to make his case that the clerics who supported them, like Rafsanjani, would risk the revolution and play into the hands of the Americans and British to protect their own wealth. Meanwhile, Rafsanjani argued behind the scenes that the unrest was the tip of the iceberg, and that Ahmadinejad had to be replaced. Khamenei, an astute politician, examined the data and supported Ahmadinejad.
Now, as we saw after Tiananmen Square, we will see a reshuffling among the elite. Those who backed Mousavi will be on the defensive. By contrast, those who supported Ahmadinejad are in a powerful position. There is a massive crisis in the elite, but this crisis has nothing to do with liberalization: It has to do with power and prerogatives among the elite. Having been forced by the election and Khamenei to live with Ahmadinejad, some will make deals while some will fight – but Ahmadinejad is well-positioned to win this battle.”
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Regrettably, that support doesn’t translate into backlog for my business, so there will come a point when I will not be able to fulfill the duties.
If I take a job sacking groceries at King Soopers during the strike, or answering the phone at a social services agency, I’m just not going to have the time or the Internet access.
When you see me posting here, that signifies that I haven’t even been able to land one of those jobs.
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I caused myself financial turmoil as well by bad speculating. I’m close to chpater 13.
Good luck
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The house is nearly paid off.
I’m actually more concerned about my sons, one put on a short work week and the other moving to a job that I don’t think he’ll like.
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In this, Khamanei is correct.
If the US had tried, or still does try, to do anything to put pressure on Khamanei to back the clerical groups that favor a recount (and in this way backpedal from supporting Ahmadinejad), it would do nothing except solidify the now divided clerics. Except now they would be united against anything that would favor a recount or reformers. Nothing unites like a common enemy, and even the clerics that oppose Ahmadinejad can’t afford to be seen as being pro-USA in any way.
It’s no secret that the Bush Admin supported regime change.