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June 25, 2009 06:03 PM UTC

Why Musgrave Lost--And What It Means For Markey

  • 14 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Ousted congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave, following a rather bizarre period of bad-mannered seclusion, eventually came up with a laundry list of reasons she lost her seat last year–mostly related to a “smear campaign” mounted against her by vengeful independent groups like the League of Conservation Voters and Progress Now.

And while it’s true that Musgrave had a target on her back going into 2008 from interests she had angered both locally and around the country, there’s more to the story–as the Fort Collins Coloradoan reports:

Republican House incumbent Marilyn Musgrave faced stiff odds in an effort to keep her seat in 2008 in the form of a diversifying district, a well-funded challenger and an unpopular President George W. Bush.

But she also hurt herself by running a shrill, negative campaign that focused on social issues when voters were more worried about the economy, according to a new analysis of Colorado’s 4th District House race last year.

“My sense is that people had just grown tired of Musgrave,” said Bob Duffy, chairman of CSU’s political science department, who co-authored the analysis.

The attack ads against challenger Betsy Markey “were out of sync with voters in the 4th District,” he said. “These are serious times, and (voters) want people who are going to attempt to address these serious problems we have; and if Musgrave had just talked about some of that stuff, maybe it would have been different.”

…While McCain narrowly won the 4th District, Musgrave, a three-term incumbent, lost by 12 percentage points.

“The fact that Musgrave significantly underperformed McCain is a clear indication she had some problems that were unique and traceable only to herself and her campaign,” Duffy and Saunders wrote in their analysis. “In a year when Republicans were unpopular, she was even more so.”

You’ll recall the depths to which Musgrave eagerly went in her attempts to put the smear on opponent Betsy Markey, including commercials featuring a Markey lookalike strapped to a lie detector and breathlessly warning of (equally fictional) “jail time.” As it became clear that Markey represented a grave threat, and the billboards of Musgrave hugging President Bush went up in Fort Collins and Greeley, Musgrave went from ‘offense’ to just plain offensive–she became a bitter, raging caricature of herself in the public eye. It made everything the liberal groups were saying about her, their image of her a wedge-issue fixated dimwit, appear true. As a result, Musgrave significantly underperformed the GOP presidential ticket–this is all pretty easy to understand, we’ve made most of these points about Musgrave’s unique complications before.

Only problem is, if Markey’s huge margin of victory in this Republican plurality district rests on Musgrave being a uniquely indefensible candidate, the real story in all this is the threat to Markey going into 2010. Depending on who wins the Republican primary, Markey may or may not have an opponent willing to do assassinate their own character like Musgrave did. Democrats seem to understand this, and have wisely accepted Markey’s more centrist voting record with minimal complaint as a necessary compromise to hold this swing seat. And unlike national Republican donors who eventually left Musgrave to twist in the wind, Markey will be one of the best-reinforced “protect list” Democrats in the nation next year. It’s a better position than Musgrave ever enjoyed, but we still predict she’ll need it.

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14 thoughts on “Why Musgrave Lost–And What It Means For Markey”

  1. She’s fine for all the reasons you say, but mostly because we will bury Cory Gardner. It’s always good to remind people not to get complacent, though.

  3. … I am amazed that this “analysis” passes the smell test.  Three CSU professors took 7 months to write what was instantly apparent once the county Statement of Votes Cast came out.

    Weld Co., for example voted the way Weld Co. always does in almost every race: a Democrat lost by 8-10K votes (countywide).  Except for Markey.  The immediate, inescapable, conclusion is that something about that race changed the usual voters’ habits.

    For some political science profs to come out and list among the reasons, “a more moderate district,” “more hispanic” voters, and “the robust presence of the Obama campaign.”  is simply silly.  Were any of those true, then the numbers for other races, especially the Presidential, should have been different than they were.

    Factor in the fact that Musgrave, in 2006, underperformed in relation to other Republican candidates, in most Weld precincts by between 1 and 1.5 standard deviations (from mean Republican votes), and you can only conclude that Musgrave lost this race more than Rep. Markey won it.

    Now, that’s not to say that Rep. Markey (and Anne Caprara) did not run a very savvy campaign which realized that Musgrave’s deep unpopularity was exposed.  They ran an amazing campaign, one which simply stunned me with its results, but the crack in Musgrave’s armor was not Obama, or Hispanics, or a moderating district. Musgrave put the crack there, and Ms. Caprara made it much wider.

    In 2010, Rep. Markey, obviously does not get to run against Musgrave again (until she gave away the money, some of us crossed our fingers), and this mainly means that the race is going to be very different than 2008.  I’m confident that Rep. Markey and Ms. Caprara know the score.

    But, getting back to my point, is this kind of drivel what we expect from our state’s University Professors?  This “analysis” looks to me to be a student’s semester project, not a collaboration between 3 PhD’s at Colorado universities.

    2. That’s pretty much the point the study makes, though.

      “The fact that Musgrave significantly underperformed McCain is a clear indication she had some problems that were unique and traceable only to herself and her campaign,” Duffy and Saunders wrote in their analysis. “In a year when Republicans were unpopular, she was even more so.”

      The district’s moderation and added Hispanic vote, plus Obama organization, mean McCain only barely wins a district Republican presidential candidates have been steamrolling for decades.

      Your points are right on, but there’s more to the study than the few sensational paragraphs excerpted in the Coloradoan and in this post.

    3. before and after the campaign she was an embarrassment to herself and those she represented.  I contend, as you do, that Betsy did not beat Marilyn, but Marilyn and her campaign style, did so few favors for herself that Marilyn beat Marilyn.  Betsy has been wise in her freshmen year, but will her wisdom be enough to overcome the Obama mission in the 4th District in CO?  Betsy has a fight on her hands.

  4. no matter how many people try to say it’s a “swing” seat. If Markey holds onto the post, you might be able to make a case for coloring eastern Colorado some shade of purple. But not yet.

    Musgrave was a nut-case who came off as a nut-case to many of her level-headed, rural GOP constituents. Musgrave’s poor performance in office and in public appearances was one of Markey’s biggest campaign assets.

    Markey appears to be taking a generally moderate line in the way she operates as a U.S. representative, which bodes well for her. If she looks out for the interests of her rural constituents, keeps a moderate course, and is honest with her constituents about her beliefs and her actions, she will do well in what promises to be a tough re-election battle.

  5. Don’t underestimate the GOTV efforts for Obama, especially on the CSU campus. For Markey to hold the seat, she will need to have that group mobilized next year, too.

  6. Although not the most populated part of her district, Her immediate response will help with Republican base in Southeast Colorado. It is still the number one issue until it goes away.

    2. The folks out in SE CO know that her heart is NOT in that issue at all.  The people on the plains will more closely identify with Gardner.  I would be surprised if Betsy were able to win a single county in SE CO.  Get a clue jfenter.  No candidate is going to go down to the SE corner and say they want to expand Pinon Canyon.  Unless, of course, you are Scooter McInnis.

  7. As others said, we need to work our ass off and assume it’s going to be very very close. But after the election I think we’ll see this like John Salazar’s seat – it may lean R but it’s safe for the incumbent D.

    First off you have the fact that people realy realy like Betsy. You see complaints here about a number of other candidates but never Betsy (or Jared or Ed). Being likable is a big help.

    Second she is doing the job just about perfectly. From constituent service to district outreach to her work in the house. Her opponent is going to have a hard time faulting her for anything.

    Third, she and her team are, I think, the best campaign team in the state.

    1. The voter registration and overall partisan performance in the two districts are vastly different. The 3rd is a true swing district, the 4th isn’t by any stretch, which makes Markey’s win by such a large margin all the more remarkable.

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