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August 02, 2017 12:57 PM UTC

Yes Virginia, Republicans Could Lose The House

  • 5 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

As The Hill reports, a combination of historical trends and unprecedented White House chaos is making the prospect of large gains by Democrats in the U.S. House increasingly likely, to the point flipping control of the chamber and potentially then some:

Democrats are feeling encouraged about their prospects of winning back the House next year despite a string of special election losses.

A turbulent White House has left President Trump’s approval rating at a dismal 40 percent, and Democrats ended the House session watching the ObamaCare repeal effort collapse in the Senate.

“There are a lot of reasons to think that the House will be in play next year,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper at the University of Virginia…

Midterm elections for first-term presidents are historically ruinous for the party that controls the White House.

By Sabato’s analysis, the president’s party has shed House seats in 36 of 39 midterms stretching back more than 150 years, with an average loss of 33 seats — well above the 24 pickups the Democrats need to take the chamber next year. [Pols emphasis]

President Barack Obama’s first midterm election in 2010 was an historic disaster for the Democratic Party, losing 63 seats in the House and setting themselves up to lose the U.S. Senate majority four years later. By comparison, the 2018 landscape features an opposing electorate to the party in power every bit as fired up as the “Tea Party” was going into 2010–and a President who popularity has fallen farther and faster than any other President in modern history. As the next election looms larger on the horizon, the GOP’s failure to get anything meaningful accomplished despite total control of the federal government is escalating into a full-blown crisis.

The recent special election in Georgia illustrates the problem Republicans face well. Although the GOP retained the seat, their margin of victory plunged to an extent that, if it were to hold true elsewhere, would result in massive defeats for Republican House candidates all over the country. It’s by no means a certainty that this is how it will play out, and Democrats have a lot of work to do to win back the electorate–and yes, that’s more than just being against Donald Trump. Articulating a positive case for the Democratic agenda, something we haven’t seen in American politics since Democrats lost their majorities in Congress, is what everybody seems to agree is their key to success in the next election.

But undeniably, the wind is now at Team Blue’s back.

Comments

5 thoughts on “Yes Virginia, Republicans Could Lose The House

  1. This should get a rise out of our right wing trolls.

    We'll be lectured about the futility of trying to flip the House because Dems were unable to win special elections in competitive places like Kansas and Montana.

  2. Gallup Tracking poll continues to have Trump drifting between 35-40%. Today is 36%. The Disapprove score, however, is now up to 60% – a high water mark for this Sad!-ministration. 24 points under "water" for the current occupant of the "dump" at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

    1. Quinnipiac has Trump even lower:

      A new Quinnipiac University Poll has the president’s approval rating falling to 33 percent, while Gallup shows it at 36 percent. Quinnipiac's measurement is the lowest in the poll's tracking of the Trump administration thus far, and Gallup's is the lowest three-day average it has registered.

      Since Republican voters for the most part are sticking with Trump, that means Independent/Unaffiliated voters are breaking hard against him.

      Of the voters surveyed by Quinnipiac, 61 percent disapproved of Trump's job performance, with over 60 percent also saying that he “is not honest,” “does not have good leadership skills” and “does not share their values.”

      “It’s hard to pick what is the most alarming number in the troubling trail of new lows for President Donald Trump,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.

      But we Dems need to remember all politics is local, so the candidates need to be really connected to their communities, understanding what they want and need — not just run against Trump (although running against McConnell and Ryan via their opponent's voting record is a natural)

      If Unaffiliateds get to vote in our primaries, this will be a good test of which candidates have the best overall message to the voters

      1. I could hear it now…..

        FAKE NEWS! FAKE NEWS! The polls were wrong in Michigan last November and they're wrong now!  

        These are the alternative Facts: If you exclude the millions of illegals who are polled, Trump's approval rating is actually 56% and his disapproval is 36%.

        LOCK HER UP!

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