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Delusions of Victory Run Wild in CD-1 GOP Primary

Danny Stroud, former Chairman of the Republican Party of Denver who in 2010 gave State Representative Jeanne Labuda a run for her money, has a little bit of unexpected company in his bid to take on Congresswoman Diana DeGette.  

The Colorado Statesman’s Ben Conarck has the story:

Former Denver Republican Party Chairman Danny Stroud is a well-known personality in the 1st Congressional District who is clamoring for a chance to take on incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, but a truck driving political neophyte may deny him the opportunity.

Stroud’s primary opponent, 61 year-old Denver resident Richard Murphy, is virtually unknown in Colorado politics, so much so that Colorado Republican Party Chairman Ryan Call had to call Stroud looking for the trucker’s phone number.

Although Stroud – a Denver businessman who just turned 59 – still won the top line at the CD 1 nominating assembly on April 13 with 81 votes, or 56 percent, Murphy’s candidacy was buoyed by a surprise showing of Ron Paul supporters who secured his place on the ballot with 46 votes, amounting to 44 percent.

It’s as surprising to Stroud as it is to many observers, of course, that there’s a Republican primary in CD-1 at all. Winning the Republican nomination to challenge DeGette essentially wins you the opportunity to become another electoral loser whose name is  tossed into the dustbin of history. As Conarck points out, DeGette’s district overwhelmingly favors the incumbent: there are two registered Democrats for every Republican. In fact, the only way a Republican could win the Denver seat is if he or she turned out every Republican voter and won the vote of every single unaffiliated voter.

The inevitability of defeat, then, is what makes Stroud’s take on Murphy’s candidacy so confusing:

Referring to the fact that Murphy is often trucking back and forth across the country, Stroud dismissed the possibility that he could potentially beat DeGette, saying that running for Congress wasn’t a “part time job.”

“Here’s the deal. If somebody’s going to beat DeGette, they have to be motivated to beat DeGette. They can’t just be motivated to beat me,” Stroud said. “The way things are going in politics, it’s conceivable he could win the primary, but he can’t beat DeGette. I’m the only one that can beat DeGette.”

It’s easy to understand why Stroud would object to and question the candidacy of the interloper Murphy. But by framing his primary opponent’s campaign as leading to certain defeat at the hands of DeGette makes Stroud look delusional. Stroud, of course, should never openly admit that he can’t win, but by criticizing Murphy’s poor odds against the incumbent, Stroud turns the camera back on his own chance at winning the seat. He may think that he’s “the only one that can beat DeGette,” but he can’t, and by parroting his electability to win the Republican primary, Stroud makes his eventual loss in the general election that much more excruciating.  

Romney To Appear In Craig, BFE Tuesday

Somewhere near the Utah and Wyoming borders. 9NEWS’ Brandon Rittiman: Sources tell 9NEWS that Governor Mitt Romney will stop in Craig, Colorado. Full details of the campaign stop have not been finalized. Craig is a four-hour drive from Denver… The Northwest Colorado town has a population of about 10,000 and is popular with big game […]

What’s In That Fabled “GOP Dream Act?”

Jonathan Weisman of the New York Times reports: With Republicans increasingly concerned about losing Hispanic voters this November, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida on Thursday pressed his party to embrace a compromise measure allowing young illegal immigrants a pathway to legal status… “Mitt Romney is the leader of the Republican Party now. Our hope is […]

Fun With Press Releases: Guess the Area Code!

We get a lot of press releases, as you might expect. Some are gooder than others, and from time to time we like to share those with you in our “Fun With Press Releases” feature. Today’s release comes from Mark Shaffer, who is kicking off his campaign for HD-51 tomorrow: PRESS Advisory Mark Shaffer, candidate […]

GOP Curiously Unconcerned With Election Fraud

Because all election fraud was not created equal–the Pueblo Chieftain’s Patrick Malone: On the eve of the 2008 presidential election, Pueblo voters’ phones rang off the hook with automated messages that deviously and falsely claimed their precinct polling places had changed. The voters were redirected to incorrect locations to cast ballots. “We have experienced it […]

Kraft-Tharp Raises 15 Grand

Make no mistake, the first fundraising report a candidate makes is critically important. Strong fundraising numbers at a campaign’s outset shows that donors are willing to give; after all, if you can persuade donors, you’ll have an easier time persuading voters.

That said, we think the second fundraising report is about ten times more important than the first. In the first quarter of any campaign, it’s the candidate’s responsibility to pick off all the low-hanging fruit. That usually means contributions from family members, close friends, college acquaintances, and party activists. In other words, the people who donate to your campaign right away – still critically important in generating momentum – are donors that you don’t really have to convince to give. They’re going to give anyway. That’s why we’re skeptical of candidates championing “strong” first-ever fundraising reports: they show that the people you know are willing to donate, but the real test is persuading others to open up their wallets.

Cue this press release from Tracy Kraft-Tharp, the democrat hoping to give Rep. Robert Ramirez a run for his money in what was once Debbie Benefield’s HD-29.

As of September 30th, Tracy Kraft-Tharp successfully raised nearly $15,000 in the first three months of her campaign for Colorado House District 29. Receiving contributions from more than 170 individual small donors, Tracy’s campaign has raised $13,777 plus $1000 in in-kind contributions.

Says Kraft-Tharp, “From my conversations with voters at the 1,400 doors I’ve knocked in the last six weeks, it’s pretty clear that the people of Arvada and Westminster want a Representative that shares their priorities. More than anything else, I am hearing people express concern about the future of their kids’ schools as the new budget forecasts show another round of serious cuts next year.”

In a district that remains very competitive in the most-recently adopted maps, Kraft-Tharp’s first quarter will likely draw even more attention to the district that gave the Republicans the majority in the House in 2010 by only 197 votes.

First off, we like that this press release makes sure to point out that Kraft-Tharpe “successfully raised nearly $15,000.” How do you unsuccessfully raise money? Did you have a bunch of donors trying the ol’ quarter-on-a-string trick? People who write press releases for local candidates always try to add this kind of language; we think it’s unnecessary. Those who read your press release will determine if what you did was “successful” or not.

Still, $15,000 is no small sum. The only way to determine if it was “successful,” in our mind, is to compare it to what Rep. Ramirez raised. After all, if Kraft-Tharpe raised $15,000 from low-hanging fruit and Ramirez raised $50,000 (read: not gonna happen), Kraft-Tharpe would have a hard time convincing other donors that she could win. That’s the odd thing, though: Ramirez hasn’t released any reports for his campaign this cycle. Of course, the deadline is still a couple days away, but Ramirez doesn’t even have a campaign committee yet.  At least, not according to the Secretary of State.

That begs the question: what happens if you were to use the donate button on Ramirez’s website? Where does that money go? It’s a little ridiculous that nobody told the incumbent candidate – who won by a hair – to go ahead and legally prepare to run for re-election. If the candidate doesn’t have a committee, he can’t even collect contributions by the books. We have no doubts that Ramirez has been fundraising for his re-election campaign. So why hasn’t he filed?  

Endnotes on “Fruity” Math

“Economic expert” Eric Fruits. (photo via Twitter) The latest installment in the amusing story of conservative economist Dr. Eric Fruits, who has watched kind of haplessly as a study he authored on the economic impact of Colorado’s Proposition 103 is subjected to enthusiastic misinterpretation by local conservatives. Bloomberg reported this weekend: Proposition 103 would increase […]

Andrea Merida’s Political Posturing

Most elected officials will tell you that one of the most thankless, unforgiving positions in local politics is a seat on the school board. It’s logical, really, that it’s a hard job; unlike other offices, school board positions deal directly with the issues affecting the children of their constituents. Parents are understandably protective of their kids in the education realm; they’ll as vigorously attack a school board member as a bully on the playground in the defense of their child.

A school board seat isn’t exactly the type of position you can easily use as a stepping stone, either. Sure, you can make incredible connections, but it’s even easier to amass a sizable list of opponents. That’s why it takes a special kind of person to serve on school boards, especially in Denver Public Schools. They have to be the kind of person who’d actually want to serve on a school board; sometimes you get amazing advocates for public schools, and sometimes you get entry-level politicians a little too proud of their title.

Cue Andrea Merida, southwest Denver’s district two director. Merida is a controversial figure in all of Denver politics; she’s picked numerous high-profile fights, including a few with other board members. We’re not here to discuss whether or not Merida has been a positive or negative influence on the direction of Denver’s schools; that’s a debate best left to Denver’s parents and her constituents.

What we will say, however, is that we continue to be shocked by Merida’s lack of political instinct. From her very first second on the board, Merida has been a constant source of controversy due in large part to some incredibly poor political posturing.

Let’s start at the beginning, really. On the day of her swearing in, Merida secured a court order enabling her to take her seat on the board just hours before she would’ve been sworn in as scheduled. She did so to vote against iconic reforms at Lake Middle School, and though we’re sure she had her reasons, the move defined her as a member. In taking her seat early, Merida swiftly and dramatically ended the tenure of her predecessor, Michelle Moss, without giving Moss the opportunity to say farewell or reflect on her past eight years on the board. Alan Gotlieb, the usually mild-mannered editor of the renowned Education News Colorado, compared the move to “a four-year-old ripping open her Christmas presents on December 23.” In this space, we noted that “Andrea Merida couldn’t have been more inappropriate and disrespectful if she had showed up in a ‘Fuck Denver’ t-shirt.” The measure that Merida grabbed the headlines to vote against ended up passing, and thus began Merida’s rather unique habit of posturing for posturing’s sake.

Rick Perry Rakes in Big Money in Aspen

UPDATE: The focus of today’s Statesman story is the money raised by Rick Perry in Aspen last week, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge this fascinating quote from his speech: “When it comes to economic growth, I know this,” Perry added. “The answer is not trickle down stimulus coming from Washington, D.C. but […]

Romer Raises a Cool Million

Our analysis of the latest fundraising numbers from all the candidates is coming soon, but until then, Chris Romer just sent out a little teaser about how he’s doing:

ROMER RAISES OVER $1 MILLION

Chris Romer continues momentum for his campaign, reaching over $1 million total raised, after another strong month of fundraising

(DENVER) — Denver mayoral candidate Chris Romer announced that he raised over $280,000 in March, bringing his campaign’s total raised to date to over $1,000,000.

Fundraising cannot win a race alone. But we’re sure Chris Romer is sitting pretty on top a stack of a million dollar bills laughing as the other candidates duke it out.

After the run-off, we expect he’ll spend all of it. If we were one of the other candidates, we’d be a little nervous about even having to make it to the run-off. Running against the guy who can raise $1,000,000 in a non-federal race has got to make you more than a little nervous: that’s a lot of positive (or negative) TV ads you’re going to have to compete with. Not to mention mailers, door-hangers, field staff, phone banks, and in this day and age, Facebook ads.

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