Search Results for: Phone Number

This is a poll of the Denver mayoral race, released by Colorado Pols and conducted by Denver-based RBI Strategies & Research. A summary from RBI research director Kevin Ingham:

RBI mayoral survey shows low voter engagement with just 3 weeks before voting begins

A survey of likely 2011 municipal voters in Denver shows that while Chris Romer is currently leading, a plurality of voters remain undecided and have yet to significantly engage on the race.  When asked who they would vote for in the race for Mayor of Denver, 22% of respondents said they would vote for Chris Romer and 10% said James Mejia with Michael Hancock (9%), Doug Linkhart (7%), Carol Boigon (5%) and Theresa Spahn (2%) all receiving support in the single digits.  Another 5% said they would vote for a different candidate and a 40% plurality say they remain undecided on which candidate they will support.

This survey is a useful snapshot of the status of the race at a time before voters have began to engage.  Though Chris Romer is clearly leading, much of this can be attributed to his name ID advantage and the race remains wide open.  Early horserace surveys, such as this one, tend to show that support is highly correlated to name ID.  Therefore, with such a large portion of the likely electorate unfamiliar with the candidates, the high number of undecided voters is not surprising.  In fact, fully 32% were unable to provide hard name ID for any of the six candidates presented during the survey interview.

As the major mayoral candidate begin to communicate with voters, the race will be sure to become more engaged and is likely to become highly fluid over the next few weeks.

RBI Strategies & Research conducted a telephone survey of 400 Denver voters who indicated it was likely that they would vote in the May 2011 Municipal Election. Interviews were conducted March 21 – March 22, 2010 by Standage Market Research of Denver, Colorado, a market research firm specializing in telephone survey interviewing. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Colorado voters, purchased from Voter Contact Services, who registered after the 2010 General Election or voted in the 2010 General Election and either 1) voted in at least one off-year election dating back to 2003 or 2) registered after 2009 off-year election.

The margin of error for a survey of 400 interviews is ±4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error is higher for subsamples within the full sample.

Other sources of error not accounted for by the stated statistical margin of error include, but are not limited to, question wording, question order, and refusal to be interviewed.

Toplines | Crosstabs

NOTE: RBI Strategies is not involved with any Denver mayoral campaigns.

Mr. Ingham will join Colorado Pols readers at 1PM today for a Q&A session.

Update: Ortega campaign manager Ben Gordon shot us an e-mail with some information from Denver polling firm Kupersmit Research.

That memo goes a little more in-depth on the poll Ortega is passing around, though it’s still a little vague in our mind. Apparently, the Kupersmit telephone poll targeted 500 Denver “likely voters.” Indeed, if Ortega was basing her claims on this telephone poll, it does look as if she’s “ahead 14%” after voters heard “a brief statement on her behalf.” Of course, this claim is only backed up by the line “Though voters are largely undecided in the City Council At-Large election, Ortega is currently ahead by 14%,” which doesn’t seem specific enough for us to label the poll as a be-all end all indicator. We obviously didn’t get to look at the specific metrics of the poll.

We can’t say that the data Ortega’s going off of is entirely representative of the race. It does certainly seem, however, that this specific poll indicates that Ortega’s name recognition is the highest in the race. Whether or not the poll accurately gauges voter intent, the name ID data-point might be a decent indicator.

We should also note that the polling memo we received was too vague to entirely establish the legitimacy of the poll, though it’s comforting to know that Ortega isn’t just making this up on the spot, necessarily.

The original text of the diary is below.