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Shocker: Jeffco Commissioners Oppose Prop 103

The Jefferson County Board of Commissioners is as predictable as it is timely:

Commissioner Odom moved that the following Resolution be adopted:

BEFORE THE BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS

OF THE COUNTY OF JEFFERSON

STATE OF COLORADO

RESOLUTION NO.  CC11-401

RE: BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS – RESOLUTION IN OPPOSITION TO PROPOSITION 103

WHEREAS, Proposition 103 would raise the state income tax level from 4.63 percent to 5 percent and the state sales and use tax from 2.9 to 3 percent for five years, and

WHEREAS, Proposition 103 requires the state legislature to spend the increased revenue, estimated at approximately $2.9 billion over five years, on education, and

WHEREAS, Jefferson County is dedicated to promoting economic development and economic opportunity for its residents and businesses, and

WHEREAS, Jefferson County attends to the needs of individuals in need, and

WHEREAS, the tax increase comes at a time when even modest hikes could damage many businesses and individuals whose financial situation is precarious,

WHEREAS, the Campaign Reform Act, Section 1-45-117(1)(b)(III)(A) C.R.S., allows the Board to pass a resolution and to take a position of advocacy on any issue.

NOW THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the Board of County Commissioners of Jefferson County opposes Proposition 103 and urges the electors to vote against it to protect businesses and individuals during these difficult economic times.

Commissioner Rosier seconded the adoption of the foregoing Resolution. The roll having been called, the vote was as follows:

Commissioner John Odom Aye

Commissioner Donald Rosier Aye

Commissioner Faye Griffin, Chairman Aye

The Resolution was adopted by unanimous vote of the Board of County Commissioners of the County of Jefferson, State of Colorado.

Does this really come as a surprise to anyone?  Of course Commissioners Odom, Rosier, and Griffin would oppose Prop 103. The thing is, though, when you do the thing that everybody expects you to do, it isn’t really newsworthy. In that way, Commissioner Odom’s resolution may have the inverse impact of its intent: nobody in the county thought that Odom and company would support 103, but by explicitly coming out against the ballot measure, the Board may make more enemies than they placate friends.

In passing this resolution, the Board has directly come out against increased funding for education. That’s gonna make all three a target for education activists in Jeffco, and that’s going to make for some uncomfortable canvassing at teachers’ doorsteps when all three run for re-election. Or, for that matter, parents’ doorsteps.

The Jefferson County Board of Commissioners isn’t tasked with deciding education policy. In fact, when you step into education policy at all, you run the risk of alienating at least one segment of your constituency. That begs the question, then: why meddle in something so contentious when it neither concerns you nor has that much intrinsic political benefit?

Kraft-Tharp Raises 15 Grand

Make no mistake, the first fundraising report a candidate makes is critically important. Strong fundraising numbers at a campaign’s outset shows that donors are willing to give; after all, if you can persuade donors, you’ll have an easier time persuading voters.

That said, we think the second fundraising report is about ten times more important than the first. In the first quarter of any campaign, it’s the candidate’s responsibility to pick off all the low-hanging fruit. That usually means contributions from family members, close friends, college acquaintances, and party activists. In other words, the people who donate to your campaign right away – still critically important in generating momentum – are donors that you don’t really have to convince to give. They’re going to give anyway. That’s why we’re skeptical of candidates championing “strong” first-ever fundraising reports: they show that the people you know are willing to donate, but the real test is persuading others to open up their wallets.

Cue this press release from Tracy Kraft-Tharp, the democrat hoping to give Rep. Robert Ramirez a run for his money in what was once Debbie Benefield’s HD-29.

As of September 30th, Tracy Kraft-Tharp successfully raised nearly $15,000 in the first three months of her campaign for Colorado House District 29. Receiving contributions from more than 170 individual small donors, Tracy’s campaign has raised $13,777 plus $1000 in in-kind contributions.

Says Kraft-Tharp, “From my conversations with voters at the 1,400 doors I’ve knocked in the last six weeks, it’s pretty clear that the people of Arvada and Westminster want a Representative that shares their priorities. More than anything else, I am hearing people express concern about the future of their kids’ schools as the new budget forecasts show another round of serious cuts next year.”

In a district that remains very competitive in the most-recently adopted maps, Kraft-Tharp’s first quarter will likely draw even more attention to the district that gave the Republicans the majority in the House in 2010 by only 197 votes.

First off, we like that this press release makes sure to point out that Kraft-Tharpe “successfully raised nearly $15,000.” How do you unsuccessfully raise money? Did you have a bunch of donors trying the ol’ quarter-on-a-string trick? People who write press releases for local candidates always try to add this kind of language; we think it’s unnecessary. Those who read your press release will determine if what you did was “successful” or not.

Still, $15,000 is no small sum. The only way to determine if it was “successful,” in our mind, is to compare it to what Rep. Ramirez raised. After all, if Kraft-Tharpe raised $15,000 from low-hanging fruit and Ramirez raised $50,000 (read: not gonna happen), Kraft-Tharpe would have a hard time convincing other donors that she could win. That’s the odd thing, though: Ramirez hasn’t released any reports for his campaign this cycle. Of course, the deadline is still a couple days away, but Ramirez doesn’t even have a campaign committee yet.  At least, not according to the Secretary of State.

That begs the question: what happens if you were to use the donate button on Ramirez’s website? Where does that money go? It’s a little ridiculous that nobody told the incumbent candidate – who won by a hair – to go ahead and legally prepare to run for re-election. If the candidate doesn’t have a committee, he can’t even collect contributions by the books. We have no doubts that Ramirez has been fundraising for his re-election campaign. So why hasn’t he filed?  

No Real Election Battles in JeffCo This Cycle

Political observers itching for a municipal-level fight following the fanfare surrounding Denver’s recent Mayoral election should turn away from Jeffco this cycle.

We wish we could say that the 2011 municipal elections in all of Jefferson County’s cities would be the stuff of excitement and intrigue. We wish we could say that there would be an old-fashioned political brawl for Mayor in places like Golden, Lakewood, Arvada and Wheat Ridge. We wish we could say that.

Unfortunately, though, while recall elections in Wisconsin may attract millions of dollars in out-of-state attention and flames of hostility are fueled by congressional gridlock, Jeffco politics this cycle are a far cry from Tea Party tensions in Washington and around the country. We’d be lucky if any of Jeffco’s cities garnered 1/10th of the excitement of Denver’s otherwise milquetoast 2011 municipal race. Unfortunately, we don’t think even that will happen.

Perhaps that’s a good thing. While municipal elections are too often characterized by angry uprisings from groups of citizens enraged over stop lights and zoning laws, in Jefferson County, at least, they’re also markedly non-partisan. Sure, both progressive and libertarian concepts are often fleshed out at the local level, but because Mayors and City Councilors run without a party identifier attached to their name, political tensions from Washington and the state legislature rarely spill-over into city issues.

It’s because of this nonpartisan nature that, while they may have a fundamental distrust of government as a whole, voters in places like Lakewood and Arvada are still reasonably satisfied with their city government. This satisfaction means that those associated with the status quo in all of Jeffco’s cities are far more likely to sail to re-election. Voters simply do not pay attention to city government unless things are going horribly wrong. While Jefferson County has been hit by economic hardship as badly as any county of its size and makeup, voters have no reason to direct their displeasure at local government this cycle.

It is for this reason that few of the Mayor’s races in any of Jeffco’s cities are seriously challenged in their re-election efforts.  

Alston Working to Raise Hancock’s National Profile

Jeremy Myer over at the Denver newspaper today had an interesting piece on Wil Alston’s primary task of raising the profile of Michael Hancock to garner the mayor some national attention. As Myer points out, Hickenlooper as mayor had an enviable national image. His quirky, soft-spoken personality partnered with his sharp political acumen made him seem like the perfect person to represent Denver nationally. Indeed, Hick’s term as Denver’s de-facto spokesperson culminated in his appearance during the Democratic National Convention in 2008. It’s because the Mayor of Denver also serves as a representative of Colorado and its culture that we’ve always called the position the marquee elected position in Colorado.

The thing is, Michael Hancock is no John Hickenlooper. Not yet, anyway. Hancock’s story is certainly inspirational, gripping, and really something admirable. Yet Hancock just doesn’t have the same personality as Hick. It’s nothing against Hancock; what’s made Hickenlooper such a teflon mayor-cum-governor is that he seemed like somebody you’d want to sit down and have a beer with, somebody you could trust because he’d have no reason to lie to you. Hickenlooper’s communications shop didn’t have to work so hard to promote the mayor’s image because John was already a decent ambassador for the state.

We’d be proud to have Michael Hancock take on the same national profile as John Hickenlooper. Still, we feel it’s a little too soon for Alston to be shopping around Hancock’s story. It feels a little…corporate. While Hancock’s rise to mayor would certainly make good fodder for the Today show, it would be even better if Hancock was first given the chance to accomplish something in the office. If Hancock shines in Denver we have no doubt his name will be brought up for Governor or any other statewide office soon enough. However, if Alston succeeds and Hancock assumes a national profile this early on in his administration, his local and national reputation will be damaged ten times more if he doesn’t remain popular.

The paradox here is that Alston’s communications shop is trying to make Hancock look the natural heir to John Hickenlooper from a national perspective, something that John Hickenlooper would never do or at least admit to doing. The more Alston pushes Hancock’s story, the less organic it seems, the less “Hickenlooper-like” it is. What Alston should be doing is letting Hancock inherit the role; instead of pushing Hancock, he should be showcasing how Hancock is, to borrow the slogan, “moving Denver forward.” That takes time because it takes more than replacing the welcome voice at DIA or snagging a 3 minute appearance with Matt Lauer to have a track record you can brag about.

Evan Dreyer: Deputy Chief of Staff?

FOX 31’s Eli Stokols, following a day-long marathon of Hancock inauguration coverage, has this interesting political tidbit:

FOX 31 Denver has confirmed that Hancock is close to hiring two deputies who will assist Chief of Staff Janice Sinden, announced last week.

Outgoing Clerk and Recorder Stephanie O’Malley, the daughter of former Mayor Wellington and Wilma Webb, will serve as Deputy Chief of Staff overseeing policy.

And Evan Dreyer, Hancock’s campaign manager and former Gov. Bill Ritter’s communications director, may join the administration as Deputy Chief of Staff for special projects.

Dreyer is still in the vetting process.

Folks, Hancock is smart in bringing Stephanie O’Malley on board. Her service as Denver’s first clerk following the disastrous election in 2006 under the Denver Elections Commission has been marked by general approval. We always thought that the clerkship was an odd job for O’Malley, though. As the daughter of Wellington and Wilma Webb she was born into enough clout to go further than the clerk’s office. On top of that, those that know her best know that she’s both incredibly sharp and politically calculating. She’s also got a JD from DU. In short, she fits the Deputy Chief of Staff mold perfectly and should be ideal for the administration.

We raised an eyebrow when we saw that Evan Dreyer still hasn’t settled in yet. Dreyer, who managed the campaign at least nominally, was well-liked as Press Secretary in Governor Ritter’s administration. We never thought he’d be Chief-of-Staff, but we thought he’d find at least some senior position even after his perceived mishandling of the post-election day prostitution allegations. The fact that Hancock’s campaign manager has yet to be vetted for a spot in the administration is odd, to say the least.  

Jeffco May Lose a Library

Nothing is set in stone yet, of course, but here we have yet another example of government services being slashed as a result of the financial downturn and a penchant for fiscal conservatism.

From Emile Hallez Williams at the Columbine Courier:

The Jefferson County Public Library system is mulling the closure of at least one of its branches next year, as it seeks to meet $1.6 million in projected budget cuts.

The library board, which presented a general list of cuts to the board of county commissioners Thursday, did not specify which branches would most likely be closed. About $985,000 would be saved through at least one closure, the library said, in addition to separate cuts of $195,000 to operating expenses and $440,000 in efficiency measures.

A final budget will likely not be passed until December

Cutting “bloated government budgets” is all the rage across the state and country right now, in part as a response to financial hardship across the globe. Still, in an era dominated by right-wing talking points focused on “drowning government in a bathtub,” the loss of government revenue as budgets are slashed also mean a loss of government services.

While less government spending sounds great, voters hate it when their local library disappears. Libraries, after all, are hubs for families and communities. They’ve existed in neighborhoods for ages and few people ever think of libraries when they talk about “wasteful government spending.”

If and when a library does close, we imagine there are going to be quite a few Jefferson County residents (and voters) up in arms. Unfortunately, the conservative talking point which thrives in Jefferson County doesn’t mention that the same government which “wastes hard earned tax dollars” also takes care of services that everybody loves.

The long and short of it is that nobody in Jeffco is going to want to see their local library close, but hundreds of thousands also want government to shrink. It’s a “take away from everybody else, but don’t you dare take away from me” mentality that’s endemic of today’s perception of taxation and government on the whole.  

Cary Kennedy Gets Denver CFO Position

A happy ending (and campaign olive branch profferred) in the case of the able former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, reports FOX 31’s Eli Stokols:

Mayor-elect Michael Hancock is expected to name former Colorado Treasurer Cary Kennedy as the city’s Chief Financial Officer on Wednesday, FOX 31 Denver has learned.

Kennedy, who was an outspoken supporter of Hancock’s runoff opponent, Chris Romer, this spring, was widely considered a rising star in Colorado Democratic circles until her defeat last year at the hands of Republican Walker Stapleteon.

Kennedy served one term as treasurer from 2007-2011 and was lauded, at least by Democrats, for her conservative approach to managing state revenues amidst the recession. A nonpartisan audit released Tuesday also praised Kennedy for her work.

Petitions Submitted for Paid Sick Days

It takes only 3,973 cured signatures  to qualify an issue for the Denver ballot. That might sound like quite a few, but in reality, that’s chump change, especially for the professional organizations which specialize in signature gathering.

That’s why we’re not terribly surprised to have received this press advisory today. From the Campaign for a Healthy Denver:

DENVER – Forty advocates wearing infectious disease masks will deliver more than three times the 3,973 petition signatures required to qualify for the ballot to the Denver City Clerk on Tuesday, July 5, 2011 at 2:00 p.m.  

WHAT:            Denver paid sick and safe time initiative campaign submission of petition signatures to qualify for November ballot

WHO:              Campaign for a Healthy Denver activists; a local business owner, a public health expert and a campaign spokesperson will make brief remarks

WHEN:            Tuesday, July 5, 2011 at 2:00 p.m.

WHERE:          Office of the Denver City Clerk, 201 W. Colfax Ave., Department 101/first floor, Denver

WHY:              Submit petition signatures for the paid sick and safe days initiative for Denver’s November ballot

VISUALS:        Forty advocates will wear infectious disease masks; Large stack of petitions to be handed to city clerk staff

This is a pretty uncontroversial issue and we can’t see many people opposing it. At the very least, we can’t see the type of vocal opposition needed to take this kind of issue down. Polling has indicated that 65% of Denver voters would support the measure, and while we’re not entirely sure that the margin will be that high, we’re confident that the hardest part of this whole process will be getting the measure on the ballot.

Still, though, what an odd way to get press attention. They’re going to have 40 people wearing infectious disease masks down at city hall? Imagine the poor TV viewers who had the volume off when they see that footage pop up on screen. It’s going to be a SARS scare all over again. But hey, at least you could get paid for the time you take off work.  That is if hypochondria qualifies under this measure.  

Colorado Pols/RBI Poll: Hancock 41%, Romer 37%

This is a poll of the Denver mayoral runoff race between former Colorado Sen. Chris Romer and Denver City Councilman Michael Hancock, released by Colorado Pols and conducted by Denver-based RBI Strategies & Research. The result of this poll shows a small, well within the margin-of-error lead for Hancock, with 41%, followed by Romer with 37%.

Here’s a detailed summary from RBI research director Kevin Ingham:

RBI Survey Shows Close Race with Hancock Leading Romer by 4 Points

A new survey of likely 2011 municipal runoff voters in Denver shows a close race for the next mayor of Denver.  Just one week after Romer taking the top spot in the first round, Hancock now leads the race for the runoff by a 41% to 37% margin.

In the weeks since RBI’s last survey of the mayoral race, Hancock’s name ID has seen a large boost with only 26% identifying an opinion of him in March and 74% able to identify him now.  Further, Hancock’s favorable name ID now out paces Romer’s with 64% saying they have a favorable opinion and 10% having an unfavorable opinion.  For Romer’s part, he has also experienced a boost in name ID with 51% identifying him in March and 79% able to identify him now.  However, negative opinion of Romer outpaces Hancock with 53% having a favorable opinion and 26% having an unfavorable opinion.

Hancock’s narrow lead is based upon a lead among Democrats, progressives, African Americans and North East Denver voters.  Romer leads among Republicans, men and conservatives.  Undecided voters are disproportionately Mejia voters, Central Denver voters, and those skipped the first round election but plan to vote in the runoff.

RBI Strategies & Research conducted a telephone survey of 400 Denver voters who indicated it was likely that they would vote in the June 2011 Municipal Election.  Interviews were conducted May 9 – 11, 2011 by Standage Market Research of Denver, Colorado, a market research firm specializing in telephone survey interviewing.  Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Colorado voters, purchased from Voter Contact Services, who registered after the 2010 General Election or voted in the 2010 General Election and either 1) voted in at least one off-year election dating back to 2003 or 2) registered after 2009 off-year election.

Today, as a favor to our friends at RBI, we’re releasing the details exclusively via RBI Strategies’ Facebook page. Please click through to get the full toplines and crosstabs for the poll–don’t worry, you can still access the results even if you’re one of the few people online anymore who doesn’t have a Facebook account. But don’t forget to give RBI a ‘Like’ if you do!

Mr. Ingham will join Colorado Pols readers at 1PM today for a Q&A session on the results of this poll.

Breaking: Mejia to Endorse Romer

The rumor mill is out in full force today, on what might be the ultimate tipping point in the race for Mayor thus far.

From a statement we received from the Michael Hancock campaign, following James Mejia’s apparent endorsement of Chris Romer:

I know this was not an easy decision for James to make. He ran a great campaign and I wish him luck in his future endeavors. From the beginning of our campaign, we knew this was going to be a race earned through hard work. I am no stranger to struggle and am determined to win this race. We will continue to build momentum and will work hard to earn the support of Denver voters over the next four weeks, including those who voted for James. We are all Denver and we welcome Mejia supporters to Team Hancock.

Folks, it doesn’t matter what Mejia was offered, if anything, to endorse Romer. Both candidates were courting Mejia aggressively, and the fact that James has lent his support to Romer absolutely kills Hancock’s chances at becoming Mayor. The only way Hancock could compete against Romer, who has much more money, much higher name ID, and fewer negatives, was to garner a Mejia endorsement and use that to coalesce his significant bloc of supporters. At the very least, Hancock HAD to keep Mejia neutral — endorsing Romer is an absolute disaster.

Even if Hancock couldn’t get Mejia’s endorsement, he had to at least keep James neutral. Hancock’s officially lost the ability to say that there is a huge group against Romer now that the latter has garnered an endorsement from the candidate who nearly beat Hancock himself.

With Mejia’s endorsement, Romer is that much more the frontrunner. Hancock may have been able to beat Romer if he could solidify an “Anybody but Romer” coalition. That’s not happening now. Mejia scored nearly 30,000 votes in his own right. That’s a solid bloc that Hancock needed to make himself look viable.

This is it, folks. The race is essentially won. Hancock doesn’t have the money or name ID that Romer has. Now he doesn’t even have a coalition. June 7th is still a long time from today, but what is Hancock’s path to victory now? We just don’t see one.

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