President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Kamala Harris

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

(R) V. Archuleta

98%

2%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

(R) Marshall Dawson

95%

5%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

50%

50%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(D) Trisha Calvarese

90%

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Crank

(D) River Gassen

80%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

(R) John Fabbricatore

90%

10%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) B. Pettersen

(R) Sergei Matveyuk

90%

10%

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

70%↑

30%

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

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Why Can’t Republicans Find a 2014 Senate Candidate? (Part 1)

There are 10 U.S. Senators who were first elected in 2008 and are running for re-election in 2014. Three of those incumbents are in states considered safe for their respective political party (Delaware and New Mexico for Democrats; Idaho for Republicans). Of the remaining seven seats, all but one have a likely or declared opponent and/or recent […]

A GOP “Move To The Middle”–Wouldn’t That Be Nice?

UPDATE: The New York Times had an interesting story over the weekend about the GOP "establishment" throwing down the gauntlet with the "Tea Party" in 2014. We've discussed this on many occasions in this space, but it bears repeating: Republican attempts to kill their own Frankenstein is the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats. […]

Coffman Will NOT Challenge Udall in 2014

As Tweeted moments ago by Allison Sherry of the Denver paper: .@repmikecoffman on running against @markudall next year: Not Interested. blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2013/0… #copolitics — Allison Sherry (@allisonsherry) January 23, 2013 Sherry reports that Coffman will run again for his newly competitive CD-6 seat. After Coffman’s very tough re-election campaign in 2012, which as we’ve discussed revealed […]

Boehner’s Debt-Ceiling Capitulation: What Does It Mean?

Our friend Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post reports: Days after President Obama held a press conference re-asserting his refusal to negotiate with Republicans on raising the debt ceiling, House GOP leaders announced Friday they would move to extend the country’s credit limit for another three months… Democrats quickly declared victory, insisting that Obama’s hardline […]

The Debut of the The Big Line: 2014

Every 10 years Colorado is without a high-profile statewide election (U.S. Senate, Governor, AG, Treasurer, Sec. of State), and we’re damn glad to see that election cycle in our rear-view mirror. That’s five whole races that we couldn’t pontificate about in the 2012 cycle.

Take a look at left to see the first version of The Big Line: 2014. The first new Big Line of the cycle is usually more question than answer, but steady losses by Republicans in 2010 and 2012 have narrowed down considerably the list of potential 2014 candidates.  

Click after the jump for a brief rundown of the who and why in The Big Line: 2014.

Winners and Losers of 2012: Winners

We posted our ‘Losers’ separately. Here are the Winners:

1. Colorado Media

Perhaps it was because Colorado had such national prominence as a top swing state, but whatever the reason, Colorado media outlets did an excellent job in their campaign coverage. What was different? The change was subtle but important: follow-up questions.

Too many reporters, particularly TV reporters, get so attached to their list of questions that they don’t ask important follow-up questions. There was a great example of this in Missouri, in the infamous interview in which Rep. Todd Akin made his “legitimate rape” comments. Those two words re-elected Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, and they certainly damaged Republican candidates across the country who were asked their opinion of the statement. But what is often forgotten is that the reporter (who later apologized) didn’t ask a follow-up question. Really. Akin made one of the most important political statements of the year, and when he was done, his interviewer moved on to another question.

By contrast, reporters in Colorado dogged Republican Rep. Mike Coffman after a tape emerged of him saying that President Obama was “not an American,” with one TV reporter catching him on the sidewalk; Coffman never answered the reporter directly, but his ducking and dodging on-camera said more than enough. The media may not always get the story right, but by asking a few extra questions instead of just tossing softballs, they can help voters understand more about the candidates.

2. Reality

Republicans rode the “smaller government, lower taxes” mantra to moderate success in the past decade, but in 2012 voters finally decided to do the math themselves. Whether it was questioning Mitt Romney’s implausible budget & tax cut math, or whether they just started seeing more needs locally, voters in Colorado made it clear that they want their government to actually work. School bond measures that failed in 2008 were easily approved in Jefferson County, Denver, and Cherry Creek, among others. Republicans attacked Democrat Andy Kerr for being the face of an anti-TABOR lawsuit, but Kerr still defeated Ken Summers for a Jefferson County Senate seat.

Generic negative ads about the cost of “Obamacare” or the auto bailout weren’t effective anywhere, and poll after poll showed that voters favored broad ideas like environmental protection even after hearing arguments that it could slow economic growth. Nobody wants to pay more in taxes, but voters are no longer willing to risk our basic infrastructure (roads, bridges, schools, etc.) just to save a couple of bucks.

Sad Trombone for Brandon Shaffer

UPDATE: Lynn Bartels of the Denver paper reports that the ad was temporarily taken down after questions stemming from the lack of a required note disclaiming the use of a photo of Brandon Shaffer in a Navy uniform. Here’s the corrected video, now back online: —– This 2012 just isn’t Brandon Shaffer’s year. The Senate […]

GOP Drops Wind PTC From National Party Platform

A release from Sen. Mark Udall today condemns the decision by the Republican National Committee to drop the wind production tax credit from the GOP party platform–considered vital to protecting thousands of Colorado jobs, and supported by nearly the entire Colorado delegation, including GOP Reps. Cory Gardner, Scott Tipton, and Mike Coffman. But not supported […]

You Never Want To Be “That Guy”

Politico starts out our week with an hilarious story that includes a Colorado connection: During a fact-finding congressional trip to the Holy Land last summer, Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.) took off his clothes and jumped into the sea, joining a number of members, their families and GOP staff during a night out in Israel, the […]

Mike Coffman Hides During August Recess

As we get past the halfway point in the August congressional recess this election year, we’ve seen many members of the Colorado delegation holding town hall meetings. The availability of our members has varied, ranging from Rep. Jared Polis, who has held a truly commendable number of town halls this month, to Republican Cory Gardner’s […]

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