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With State Senator Evie Hudak narrowly clinching victory against Lang Sias in SD-19, there remains but one race left to be decided in Jefferson County, that between Democrat Casey Tighe and incumbent Republican John Odom for county commissioner.

Thursday’s unofficial tally, which includes all regular ballots cast in the county as well as those of overseas and military voters, gives Tighe a 251 vote edge. Although about 7,500 provisional ballots are presently being tabulated, the .08% margin separating the two candidates is over six times smaller than the .5% margin which necessitates an official recount. Neither candidate is expected to pull enough provisional votes to move the needle decisively in their favor.

The official election results will be certified no later than Friday, November 23rd. If the commissioner race remains this tightly contested, a recount of all Jefferson County ballots is statutorily required to be completed by December 6th.

By dint of his current lead, Tighe is the odds-on favorite to ascend to the Board of County Commissioners. As Josh Liss, Jeffco’s deputy of elections, tells the Arvada Press, “[W]hat we’ve seen in recent years is that the provisional ballots seem to reflect what we see on election night.” [Emphasis Added]

Worse still for the incumbent, if Tighe maintains his advantage after provisional ballots are counted and the results are certified, there’s almost no chance that a recount will lead to an outcome in Odom’s favor, as the Arvada Press continues:

The optical vote-counting machines used by Jeffco, which Liss described as “simple and reliable,” would be checked for accuracy.

Then the recount would begin, which in the case of the Odom and Tighe contest would involve recounting every ballot in the county. The process is expected to take three to four days.

Liss said the county’s equipment is rarely wrong the first time around though. “I don’t think we’ve ever seen a recount in Jeffco where the result changes.”

When Tighe is inevitably declared the victor, he’ll become the only elected Democrat anywhere in Jefferson County government. But he probably won’t hold that distinction for long.

That the race is even this close at all, let alone the fact that Tighe will almost certainly win the seat, signals a shifting tide in Jefferson County. Jeffco voters, of course, have long been content to send Republicans to the Taj Mahal by default. Former County Commissioner Kathy Hartman was the first Democrat elected to the Board in 14 years, and even she was ignominiously dispatched by Don Rosier in 2010.

Odom’s failure to truly fight for relection can be attributed to these electoral trends. Why should he have had anything to worry about when few Republicans have ever lost their bids for second terms? Although Tighe’s triumph speaks to his counterpart’s electoral arrogance, it’s also evidence that Republicans can no longer take their cozy perch in county government for granted.

Without any campaign or infrastructure to speak of, Odom garnered just under 50% of the vote. By comparison, Tighe’s ragtag effort earned him a hair over 50%. That means that just being a Republican is no longer enough to win in Jeffco — GOP candidates at the county level will actually have to work keep their hitherto ironclad control of county government.

Tighe, with no built-in name ID, few fundraising connections, and a less-than-professional operation, was a far cry from a perfect candidate. And yet the Democrat is on course to eke out a victory. Just imagine the trouncing Odom would’ve received if he was challenged someone with a better profile.

Odom’s campaign should serve as a warning for Commissioners Don Rosier, Faye Griffin, and other Republicans in county government: You’re now accountable to voters in Jefferson County. Act accordingly.  

Jefferson County Democrats have been struggling to field candidates in the two countywide commissioner races this cycle.

Commissioner Faye Griffin is vying for a second term in 2012, and Commissioner John Odom, who filled the vacancy created after Kevin McCasky’s controversial move to the Jefferson County Economic Council, is seeking a full term. No Democrats had announced to take on either Griffin or Odom until attorney Casey Tighe filed papers late last month for Odom’s District 2 seat.

From the Columbine Courier:

Democrat Casey Tighe has the lofty goal of unseating Jeffco Commissioner John Odom in November, and the Colorado Department of Transportation audit director is ending his 24-year career to focus completely on his campaign.

Tighe, a longtime Golden resident who filed his candidate affidavit on Jan. 27, said he does not foresee a highly charged, partisan race for the District 2 seat, which in recent years has been dominated by Republicans.

A Republican vacancy committee appointed Odom to fill the seat vacated by former commissioner Kevin McCasky a year ago, when McCasky accepted a job as head of the Jefferson County Economic Development Corp.

“I don’t know that this will be a real partisan race,” Tighe said. “You’re looking for someone who will run an effective government.”

The last Democrat to fill an elected office in Jefferson County was former commissioner Kathy Hartman, who in 2010 was defeated by District 3 Commissioner Don Rosier, a Republican. Hartman was also the first Democrat elected to the seat in 14 years when she won the office in 2006.

But despite the local electorate’s historically conservative leanings, Tighe, 52, said his auditing expertise will make him a competitive candidate.

“I can provide a fresh set of eyes and perspective as a county commissioner,” said Tighe, who was serving on the county audit committee last year when the current Board of Commissioners dissolved it. “I try to make my decisions based on the facts … and not purely on ideology. There’s a lot of talk right now about cutting government … but you need to make the right decisions about where can you cut and where you focus the government’s efforts.”

Further, county residents are interested in a business-friendly atmosphere, he said, an insight that does not appear lost on the current board.

“I know Jefferson County. I know what the people are looking for. … People are interested in business development. They want to see businesses grow,” Tighe said, adding that county services should be streamlined and helpful. “The government should be elegant in that the customer has a positive experience. … It should be an efficient process. You shouldn’t have to go back again to get service.”

That political newcomer Tighe is the only Democratic candidate set to take on Odom in District 2 shows just how intimidating the commissioner’s races are for Democrats. Odom, who lost his first ever political bid against Cheri Jahn for the SD-20 seat in 2010, is arguably much more vulnerable in his re-election bid than Griffin – he lost his last campaign for a much smaller office and never before has been on the ballot countywide. Even with that inherent vulnerability, however, no big-name Democrats were willing to challenge him for the District 2 seat, leaving the race open to the relatively unknown Tighe.

Can Tighe win? He’s got an interesting pedigree, at the very least. The longtime CDOT audit director also served as the chairman of the Jefferson County Audit Committee, qualifications which will enable Tighe to campaign on government transparency and accountability. Those talking points may resonate in light of Jeffco’s own “Bridge to Nowhere” scandal if Tighe can make the case that he’s better qualified than Odom to root out county corruption.

With no contribution limits in county races, however, Tighe’s talking points won’t be relevant unless he can raise enough to televise them. Tighe may have some contacts with the Colorado Trial Lawyer’s Association, but he doesn’t have a record as an elected official. Without it or any other indicator of previous success, Tighe will struggle with convincing donors that he can win the election against Odom. There’s just no way that Tighe’s fundraising list, as a political newcomer, will be long enough to really give incumbent Odom a run for his money.

The commissioner’s race is an important challenge for Democrats – a strong presence at the countywide level will boost turnout for State House and Senate Candidates, especially given that there are no statewide offices up this year with the exception of CU regent at-large.

Tighe may prove a worthy adversary for Odom, but the numbers aren’t on his side. There are more residents in Jefferson County than in the entire state of Wyoming, and unless Democratic challengers can raise the kind of money characteristic of a congressional race, incumbent Republicans will continue to dominate county level politics. Without previous elected service and with a low name-ID, it’s unlikely that Tighe will be able to pull in enough cash to be viable.  

Still no word on who, if anybody, will take on Faye Griffin.