The Big Line: 2016

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning a particular race. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or presumed to be running.

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado IN NOVEMBER)

(D) Hillary Clinton* (90%)↓
Some September polls show the race tightening in Colorado. Clinton’ significant field advantage and Trump’s terrible first debate should make Democrats feel better.

(R) Donald Trump* (10%)↓
You know you’re screwed when even Quinnipiac can’t find daylight.

U.S. SENATE

(D) Michael Bennet* (95%)↑
Prognosticators at the New York Times give Bennet better than 99% chance to win. We won’t go quite that high, but this race is over.

(R) Darryl Glenn* (5%)↓
Glenn continues his long march to obscurity.

CD-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
After dispatching Chuck Norris in Democratic Primary, re-election is assured.

(R) Casper Stockham* (1%)
Sure, here you go. Whatever.

CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Polis doesn’t have much to worry about here.

(R) Nic Morse* (5%)↓
We’ll list his name for the record, but Morse destined to be just a minor footnote.

CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (50%)↓
Public lands issues could make the difference in this race.

(D) Gail Schwartz* (50%)↑
Not much is going wrong for Schwartz in 2016.

CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (95%)
Buck won’t lose in 2016; biggest concern remains a Primary challenge down the road.

(D) Bob Seay* (5%)
Democrats won’t make any effort here.

CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (95%)↑
After almost getting kicked off the ballot altogether at caucuses, Lamborn rallies for another Primary victory. Won’t have trouble in General Election.

(D) Misty Plowright* (5%)
First transgendered Congressional candidate in U.S. history, but this seat just isn’t winnable for Democrats.

CD-6 (AURORA)

(D) Morgan Carroll* (50%)↑
Carroll claims that internal poll in mid-September showed her up 5 points.

(R) Mike Coffman* (50%)↓
Coffman has never been hit this hard, and this often, by a Democratic opponent.

CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)↑
Perlmutter has beaten every CD-7 challenger by double digits.

(R) George Anthanasopoulos* (10%)
We suppose something weird could happen in Colorado’s most important electoral county, but probably not enough to make a difference here. 

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (50%)
Taking back control of the State Senate is going to be a nail biter.

REPUBLICANS (50%)↑
As expected, Republicans are devoting most of their 2016 resources toward preserving their one-seat majority.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (70%)
Democrats are outperforming GOP in fundraising by a wide margin.

REPUBLICANS (30%)
If Republicans couldn’t take House in 2014 wave year, they aren’t going to do it in 2016.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2016 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.