December 31, 2009 11:26 PM UTC

What's Going To Happen in 2010 Colorado Politics, or

• 8 Comments
• by: MADCO

Screw The Past and Focus on the Future; Like driving in Rome, what’s behind you doesn’t matter.

Here’s what’s going to happen in 2010 Colorado politics:

The economy will continue to recover,  painfully, slowly.

– R’s who want to bash Ritter and other D’s with jobs/jobs/jobs and the economy will relapse to “government had no part in the recovery, it was all the market”

– For R’s who will want to continue whining that it’s not recovering fast enough, or if the recovery stalls and doulbe or triple dips, R’s wishing to bash Ds will claim the D’s in office “havent’ done enough” and claim that they would do better, but will not offer specifics nor details of what their newfound desire for Gov’t intervention would do.

CO R’s will be reenergized. All CO elections will be won or lost on turnout, turnout, turnout – not ideas, not policy differences, not personality and likeability.

– ArapCo will be a 50/50 R/D toss up

– Jeffco will be much closer to 50/50 R/D than it was in ’08.

There will be more and louder R posturing to cature the real, but minority Tea Party and far, far  away right  

Social issues will intrude, though not just because of the Tea Party but also because of the ballot initiatives (see below).

Because of this posturing to reach out to the TeaParty and FFA R’s, there will be some bizarre fractioning for the R.  The D’s will react two ways, neither of which will be helpful. a)  By overreaching to the left,  to their peril from the right and the middle.  Or b) By not reaching at all to their peril from the left, though most CO D’s will not have a challenge from the left.  If the D’s fractionate because it appears the R’s are muddled and split, the R’s will win.

CD1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7,  locked – no change, barring surprise retirement or HTA (hiking the Appalachian) in which case most emerge with the same affiliation.

CD4: depends on D turnout. (see below)

Gov

Ritter v Mcinnis

R turnout will be large. D turnout is questionable.  

If McInnis runs to the wacky FFA Right, displays his mean temper and there are enough bizarre 527’s, the D’s and U’s who lean D will show up: Ritter wins.

If McInnis is reasonable, moderate, facty with details (budget and policies) and  can remain distant from the bizarrest 527’s and ballot initiatives- McInnis wins. And the low D turnout hurts Markey, the D Senate nominee and D’s in real races.

Senate

The R nominee will be Wiens if he shows real money from the 4Q numbers out in a few days.  Norton is not exciting and her base is tainted as both the R machine and the R traitors who brought us Ref C. Wiens has equally solid R credentials and is presentable both to the FFA R and the middle.  He’ll seem practical and harmless- even though his populist spin is going to feel weird at first, it will resonate.  

In any case, the R nominee won’t have to run against the D nominee:  The race will be against Obama and the Socializing of America.  

Plenty of voters already think they prefer Congress and the President to be of different parties, so the R nominee just has to run as “I’ll never be #60” (or said another way I’m 41! I’m 41!)

Ballot measures.   SOS site – thanks Bernie.

In addition to the Caldera/II anti-health care proposition talked about yesterday,

 link there are dozens of others, some of which are sure to GOTV. And almost all of them favor R candidates, either simply by motivating R turnout or by aligning with the R platform.

The three Bruce initiatives (property, motor vehicle , income  taxes and fees and debt redefined and limited

Helps all R candidates by motivating turnout in parts of the state that lean R.

Gay Marriage

Helps all R candidates by motivating turnout in parts of the state that lean R.

Firearms

Helps all R candidates by motivating turnout in parts of the state that lean R.

Definition of Personhood

Motivates turnout in general- but because it is perceived as hopeless tilting at windmills, it  motivates more on the anti-choice side.

Verify Employment Eligibility

Split: it could be a pro-labor move, but it won’t be spun that way

Beer & Wine in grocery stores

May motiavte younger voters to show up- they generally lean D