U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) George Stern
(D) A. Gonzalez
(R) Sheri Davis
40%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
April 20, 2010 06:18 AM UTC
87 Comments
Nice try at spin, but it’s still $1,405,000 versus $385,000 (4 to 1); and $3,570,000 versus $500,000 (7 to 1).
Romanoff is a prohibitive underdog, one would think.
When you lose by $1.1 million per quarter in fundraising. Consecutively.
calling for a raise for David Sabados. It makes sense – Lord knows I would rather my finance staff put blogging before raising money.
I know that David Sabados was the one that was overseeing the assemblies, I don’t think he’s finance.
n/t
There really is no spinning that number compared to Bennet. Comparing it to Norton or Buck it’s not terrible but with Bennet’s haul, Romanoff better be having months that match that quarter. It will be interesting to see the report and to know how much of a bump they really got from the caucuses and how hurt they were by the lack of direction for most of January when I doubt they raised much at all. If they can pull in 250+ a month and spend $1million on tv, then they can be competitive.
I’m also looking forward to the details of Bennet’s and when his money came in. They had previously said they raised around 700k from Obama’s visit which means without that Bennet did about 700k for the quarter and I don’t think Obama will be making a quarterly appearance. Other sources have said he brought in 70-100k from the netroots from the public option letter meaning without that or Obama coming out he did about 600k of which Hotline says 240k was PAC $$ which he has to be close to exhausting sources for which leaves around $350k from individuals not connected to the Obama events or the public option letter shell-game.
I don’t think for a minute that Bennet will only be raising at that rate this quarter but his fundraising does actually seem to be slowing a bit. Real question is if Romanoff really has picked up steam at the end of March and can raise 250-350k a month between now and the primary which we won’t know unless a) they boast about it, b) we see a blitz of ads or c) until July 15.
but saying about Bennet
is a stretch. Bennet reported his best quarter to date, and the first quarter is two weeks shorter than the previous three, so that’s hard to see how it’s slowing. Besides, plenty of the money raised in the Obama visit would probably have come in anyway. The $25 donations meant to boost the number of total contributors were a result of the Obama visit, but not all the big donors.
I didn’t consider the quarter being 2 weeks short although that hurt both. Fair point on some of the Obama visit money – no way to calculate or estimate how much, but you’re right, it could be a chunk
Because you just said that was what he was going to have to spend on TV ads to be competitive.
I would like to see a reasoned explanation on how Andrew is going to raise more than 1 mil for the first time ever and spend it all on TV ads. Or maybe one on how he is going to afford any TV ads this quarter. Wait, how about one on how he is going to reach out to primary voters on a caucus budget.
Newsflash: Bennet has already spent double Romanoff’s CoH in TV ads. What makes you think those ads will make AR competitive?
Your title is a real treasure, that you can’t spin this. It is obvious that you spend most of your comment doing so. Bennet’s fundraising is slowing, huh? I could have sworn this is his best quarter on record.
http://coloradoindependent.com…
Fundraising is always heavily weighted towards the end of the quarter. Someone with some time on their hands should graph the daily totals for this quarter versus last quarter. They will look surprisingly similar.
Definitely agree on the spin about end of quarter when things pick up. Whether Romanoff’s was just the usual end of quarter surge or an actual shift for them we don’t know though I hear there may be more to it.
When Romanoff announced last Sept he raised almost $300k in only a few weeks – almost as much as he raised the entire quarter with this supposed post caucus “Romentum.”
So much for “gathering steam.” Even if they wanted to use momentumspeak to cover up their crappy numbers, Team Romanoff’s best quarter was a long, long time ago.
So what’s next?
I agree with HalfGlassFull that the numbers speak for themselves on the surface but I hear there is a lot more going on at Camp Romanoff.
From what I’m told there was a pretty significant staff shake-up and shift in mid-March. Toda’s exit was one part of it and although Teicher’s handling of last week was less than stellar, the guy does have a lot more experience and we’ll see if he can turn their operation into something more than senseless press releases and if he has pushed Ken Gordon out of writing endless missives about PACs.
I hear they brought in a more seasoned person to transition their field team from a grassroots campfire into a full-blown field operation and GOTV machine. Word is she’s cracking the whip there and some who have been singing ’round the campfire are having a rude wake-up.
The other whip-cracker I hear they’ve brought on board is probably going to be a big factor in whether Romanoff can run a competitive t.v., radio and mail campaign is in finance. Around the same time as the other shake-ups in mid-March, they brought in a new Finance Director who I’m told is, for the first time since Romanoff got into the race, running the kind of finance operation it’s going to take to be in a race for the US Senate. I know of a couple of people who have interviewed lately and said it sounds like they’re expanding the finance team and shaking up the ones that are there.
Although I agree that the end of quarter bump is normal, I’m going to give the new finance director some credit and some high expectations this quarter. Also hearing they’ve landed some pretty big players since she joined for their finance committee including new people leading it.
Will the shake-up be enough? Only time will tell and I agree with JTB that this race will be almost over before we know. Who knows, maybe Romanoff’s re-shaped team will really give Bennet a run if they can raise enough to go up on tv for 6-8 weeks with $1.5 million. A stretch, but I’m hearing it could be a reality.
how come Andrew hasn’t fired and replaced his finance team? Isn’t that the pink elephant in the room?
As a fundraiser for a living I’ve been asking that for a long time. Also when you have Berrick Abramson who ran not only Bill Winters but also Josh Hanfling’s campaign as the #2 you have a problem. Just saying…
It’s interesting to say the least that Teicher would decide to release this on a Tuesday. I think they’ve drunk the Kool-Aid on this one. They must truly think this is good news otherwise they would’ve released the numbers last Friday. From my vantage point, this is not good news no matter how you spin it and is one more mistake to add to the tally.
My estimate of 450k was apparently an overestimation. This total would be “solid” if it was Perlmutter or Markey.
Gaining 23k CoH is not going to cut it for a US Senate race. 500k would be acceptable on the Republican side of the race, but Romanoff is now being beaten on a consistent basis in amount of money raised and cash on hand (4-1 and 7-1, respectively).
In national comparison, Romanoff doesn’t even constitute “competition “. Bennet continues to dominate the airwaves with three consecutive ads. You can argue whether or not the ads were “good” or not, but Bennet is painting a picture about who he is with no opposition. But hey, money ain’t a thang (unless you have a television).
In fact, none of Bennet’s challengers can run an ad without seriously endangering vital parts of their campaigns! Here are some components I would start worrying about I I was challenging Bennet; finance staff, field staff, comm staff, field offices, TV ADS and earned media. Because I see Bennet dominating these areas in the long term; he has so far.
RMM wrote above about finance staff, field staff and comm staff. On earned media, Romanoff better find a new message and his new guy better be better than the last and better than last week – they did get some nice press in Colorado Springs with his Manufacturing/Trade speech but other than that the only free media I’ve seen since the new guy was the story Bennet’s people successfully worked to Bartels & Greene that Romanoff’s guy completely screwed up (Hey Romanoff – if you’re being repeatedly smeared personally by a guy with enough skeletons to fill a graveyard, why not hit back at the character of the guy attacking your character??!!)
On field offices, I got a call that they’re opening up a field office out in Jeffco in the next few weeks and the guy who is organizing Jeffco told me that’s only one of 8 or 10 they’re opening this month.
I’ve spoken to the senior staff there, and they categorically deny doing so. Granted, it’s tough to prove a negative, but unless you have some proof to the contrary, it’s best to stop making that allegation.
I don’t believe Bennet himself or Hughes had their hands on this or even knew necessarily, but unless you have Bartels & Greene ready to go on record with a source other than “people close to Bennet’s campaign,” (hint for you – they won’t – and one will say she got it from the other) you might want to chill your defense. You chat with Kid Kincaid? You also going to claim the “Latino Leaders” letter (AKA the Manny Rodriguez letter) wasn’t connected or tied to the campaign and was just a spontaneous outburst? Next you’ll say all 3 of the Bennet speakers at assemblies who brought up Bennet being married & having a family being a reason to support him was just a coincidence.
I enjoy your posts & often respect what you have to say but in this one I think you may be speaking without all the facts. For full disclosure, you happen to interview or talk to Bennets campaign about a job any time recently?
Paranoia Powder or Conspiracy Serum? Do you honestly think all of the Pols bloggers AND speakers at assemblies and Latino leaders and everyone else who knows or supports Michael Bennet all share in 4am “secret conspiracy” conference calls? How about our secret handshake? Disappearing ink? Did you know the CIA is in on it, too? Of course!
Oh no, you are on to us! Foiled again.
Are so desperate. Your willingness to attack people who work for a campaign is disgusting. I would never slander the folks i know that work on Andrew’s campaign. As usual, when hard news hits, the usual people try to drive the conversation off track.
If a staffer does something unethical then by all means call them out, but otherwise attacking staff is just classless. Both sides have some talented people who are going to do some things that the other side may not like but that doesn’t justify attacking either.
No idea whether a Bennet staffer was behind the “bannergate” story getting to the paper though I do find it hard to believe that Bartels found the story on her own. If it was a staffer, they deserve a bonus. That little distraction took Romanoff completely off his game and had all of the chatter being about “did he or didn’t he alter a photo.” Greene may have gone a little overboard with it but whoever got that ball rolling is just playing the game and playing it well. We may decry the “nasty games” but reality is it’s a battle to control message, take the other guy off theirs and this was effective.
That said, I did say that it’s tough to prove a negative. Maybe I was misled – wouldn’t be the first time, certainly not going to be the last.
All I’m saying is that “people close to Bennet” is different from “Bennet’s people” – the former could be anyone, really, while the latter is generally understood to be Bennet’s staff.
The “Latino leaders” letter was a pretty obvious move to make after Teichert’s “minority folks” boner, if only because it extended what was a non-story – all with the assistance of Romanoff’s campaign.
As for the marriage comments, I think they’re crass and tired. Maybe they’re a coincidence, maybe it’s not, but in the end, who cares? Really, who? I really couldn’t care less whether Romanoff is single, married, divorced, or rocking the proverbial “it’s complicated” on Facebook. To me, it’s a non-issue.
Which brings me to a larger point – one of the things that’s really torquing me off about this damned race is the constant, theatrical, melodramatic, over-the-top outrage that runs through every single damned conversation online – and offline, as well – we have about this.
I’m sick of it. There are days when I just want to go take a nap and not wake up till August 11.
To hear some people tell it, you’d think that as Ritter announced Bennet’s appointment to the Senate, he was trampling all over the Constitution, and depriving every Democrat of the right to vote.
To hear some others say it, random folks writing comments on a blog in favor of Romanoff are like the Klan. The Klan. Are you kidding me? Is this what we’ve come to?
It’s late, so I’m going to leave it at that – but I’m seriously fed up with the bickering and melodramatics over this race. People need to chill the hell out.
One last thing – I’m not working on any races this cycle. Should that change, I’d quit posting, just as I have in the past when working on a race. And to answer your question, JTB, I haven’t interviewed with anyone, let alone Bennet. I have friends in both camps, but that’s as far as it goes.
…especially your exasperation with the melodrama surrounding every Bennet v. AR post. It still strikes me as odd and distasteful everytime I read this site.
Want to join my STFU club? I do not listen to negative stuff involving this race. My view is, if you don’t have something positive to say…STFU.
Membership is free, by the way.
Man- I was starting to think it was just me. Has everyone forgotten how to breath in and out calmly?
85 days until primary ballots are in the kitchen.
Can’t they be in the living room once in awhile?
And I suspect at the kitchen table is where most people fill theirs out.
I open all my mail in the living room. I fill out my ballots there and pay my bills there. So there!
You’re right.
I know nothing.
Are there really that many professional wrestling fans out there?
and even more staged?
I was actually watching the Nuggets game while posting and found this as a side diary. Its a close game, so I type slow.
Ya know what, I have so much hope for Andrew’s campaign. Really, all the new hires throughout his campaign have been STELLAR!
From Caddell, to four spokespeople and the notable absence of a campaign manager for four months, this campaign is full steam ahead now!
Bannergate sounds like a disgruntled Romanoff ex-staffer who let the truth out.
And if you’re not, you’re just making shit up.
I mentioned those things because they cost money. Maybe you could tell me how to budget all of those components with 500k in a US Senate race. Just curious.
put on a really swell show in the barn. That always worked for Mickey Rooney and Judy Garland.
AR’s communications team has actually been doing a pretty good job of getting him out there. I’ve seen segments of AR on Colorado Biz Magazine, TV networks, syndicated columns etc. The problem is that his message sucks. He still can’t adequately answer the question of why he’s running and why Bennet should be fired. All that earned media is scuttling voters first impression of the guy, he comes across as unorganized and lacking a clear platform for Coloradans.
$33.48 per caucus attendee who preferred Romanoff.
Where’s the love?
$130 per caucus attendee who preferred Bennet – $140 per assembly attendee who preferred Bennet just a few weeks later.
Guess you can buy love although it’s expensive for some.
At these rates of cost per vote, Bennet’s 4:1 money advantage is what he’s going to need to buy the love he’ll need, but then I’d bet he’s used to buying whatever he wants & having money get him what, who & where he wants
The last paragraph blows it.
Andrew Romanoff comes from as much priviledge or more than Sen. Bennet.
are giving to Bennet. Moneyed interests are “investing” in Bennet Knowing they will have a greater return should Bennet or a (god forbid)a republican wins this senate race.
Oh, wait. No I didn’t.
Those adds are from Bennet proclaiming how he is the solution to how he votes.
You know, checking in with his highest donor, to articulate his opinion.
Demonstrate it.
Make the case.
You – and others- just fearing it might be true isn’t enough.
If Romanoff had a primary challenger while he was Speaker of the House he would’ve wined all the way to the election. He thinks just because his PAC gave a bunch of money away to Dem legislators over the years he was entitled to be Senator.
AR was always so anti-primary . . .
Romanoff is not a whiner in the slightest nor does he feel entitled.
You are really scraping the bottom of the barrel on that one and TRYING to be nasty.
When you have a valid point, maybe people will pay attention to any more of this vile posting of yours.
AR’s opposition to Dem primaries while serving in the House was well known, and is one reason I do not support him.
Regardless of whether or not AR feels “entitled” or that he is “whining” is not the point. What is significant is that a number of people perceive him to feel “entitled” and/or to be “whining.”
And as others here have pointed out, he has yet to convey what would make him better in the job than Sen. Bennet.
Actually, I was.
Not ha-ha funny, just, well dumb
I was estimating donations coming in. I had been thinking that with 50% of the caucus goers preferring Romanoff, those 11,500 could be counted on to couch up $100.
You seem to be implying that Bennet’s $/caucus goer is money going out. Which if it was true would be pretty interesting. But the burn rate wasn’t anywhere near that high, and COH appears to be enough to run hard through Nov if the donors don’t dry up.
Any of the Bennet supporters know how much of his cash on hand is for primary vs general? I had heard that around 2 – 2.5 mil is for the general which would put him right now with enough cash for primary to buy about 1 1/2 weeks more tv than Romanoff. I don’t think much at all of Romanoff’s money was from donors who gave enough to exceed the max for primary & then some for the general so almost all of his is available for the primary. Could really come down to what both do April – July.
Yes- assuming no unfortunate lightning strikes or hikes ont he Applachian trail now through July is the primary.
You think the fundraising advantage that Bennet has had isn’t hugely advantageous- you’re crazy.
I really thought camp Romanoff would have seen more bump from the caucus- seeing as how the caucus and caucus attendees are so important. I get the power of large numbers – 30% at caucus/assembly, 50% +1 in August. But I don’t understand how camp Romtum is going to reinvent the modern campaign without modern budget.
He will be challenged to fight the media blitz for the priamry. This has been the reality check from day 1 of his campaign.
He might pull off a primary victory.He will have no cash for a general and very little time to raise it while he is running.
I don’t see that suddenly turning imto instant success at raising money from sources he has attacked.
Ken Buck might win, too. As seen on TV, though Mr.Buck isn’t against getting assistance in large quantities from out of state 527’s.
obvious correction
You can spin it either way and both sides are doing so. But it’s enough to stay in the game.
The other thing to keep in mind is that while Bennet can afford TV, his TV spots so far have been lackluster. As such, he gains no advantage from his higher spending.
If Bennet can’t sell himself to a public who doesn’t know who he is, the dollars don’t help.
It’s hard not to see this race going more negative.
I don’t like how this looks for the fall, as either Romanoff wins and has no money for the general, or Bennet wins but is tagged as the candidate of corporations and the status quo, which feeds right into the teabagger meme.
When no one else is on TV!
Once ExxonMobil starts running ads for Jane Norton, I think the GOP will have a hard putting a negative spin on Michael Bennet’s corporate support.
Betsy Markey raised $500,000 first quarter for CD4. John Salazar raised $303,000 for CD3.
AR’s numbers are disappointing, at best. And that is worrisome to me because he could end up being our Democratic candidate after the primary and if he is, we lose this seat; yes, it really is that simple. I don’t want to lose this seat. I’ve had enough Republican Senators in this seat to last me a lifetime. I need him to be a viable candidate and after 3 quarters, he has proven he doesn’t have the fundraising capabilities needed for a Senate run.
If Romanoff wins the primary — and I do not believe he will — it will make it harder to keep the seat in November.
While the Democratic nominee will get the votes of Democrats, Romanoff has offended people who support Bennet. If you are a Democrat who writes checks in campaigns, and you wrote a check for Bennet and worked for his election, will you open your checkbook for Romanoff after he has taken the approach he has taken in this campaign?
I see the exact same thing.
Except in my neighborhood all the Romanoff supporters also talk about John Flerlage beating Coffman. Flerlage has raised a total of $75k in 14 months of running.
D’s will need turnout in Oct/Nov to keep the seat. And I think that’s going to require budget enough to dog fight with the R nominee, the R 527’s, the NRSC, etc.
botw asks a good question- a question I thought is now answered leading up to and just after caucus. $100 per head, one time. and instead camp Romanoff produces about $34.50 per attendee.
as Bill Winter had to beat Tancredo. Which is to say none. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Not gonna happen.
… does he think he has any hope of ever again getting elected anything above dogcatcher?
And it’s more like “when” than “if”. The next time Romanoff is offered a nice appointment, he’d better take it.
Does Bennett lose the general? If he does, and Romanoff can stay relevant (not sure how) then maybe he runs against Norton in 2016. Probably too far away though.
US CD1 if DeGette retires or is appointed to something.
CO SD32 if Romer goes city council.
Otherwise it’s pretty grim for him.
He should go get a job outside politics for a while and make some rich friends who could help finance his next campaign in 2020.
and bitterness from those who tried to help Bennet win.
and if Bennet wins… well, the pro-Bennet folks who’ll stay prominent in CO politics will have plenty of other CD1 options.
Romanoff would hardly be first in line for that spot if DeGette retires. If he thinks this primary is nasty and the fix is in, just wait for that one.
There would be a 30 way primary if DeGette retires. Good luck with that… she will be there another 10 plus years.
like me. I’ll cut him a check if he’s the nominee and I know quite a few other Democrats that will, too. We want to keep this seat more than we want to be petty.
But he needs large donors, not just small contributors like us. And his numbers, after 3 quarters, prove he doesn’t have them. There’s no spin left here–he just doesn’t have the fundraising capability needed for this race. Udall’s race was approximately $12 million. AR has $500 grand in the bank and 7 months left.
He’s backed himself into a corner he can’t get out of with his stance on PACs–I think he forgets that ProgressNow, Moveon, etc., are PACs. He said he doesn’t want their money. If he doesn’t want their dollars, I can think of about 150 other people that do.
…but certainly the attack ads.
Norton is a dmwit wackadoo, and the liberal 527’s won’t have any problem going after her if Andrew’s too good to take their money.
Am not going to let sour grapes ruin the Democrats’ chances of losing this seat. Whoever wins the primary will have earned that win, as well as the support of the entire Democratic Party–no matter who it is.
All this “I’m not going to support _____ because they offended my sensibilities” crap is garbage.
The people who are so offended by blog posts to say things like that make me sad.
just can’t help breaking “rule #9”, which states: “Don’t take yourself too goddamned seriously.”
I heard it from my high school football coach. It stuck.
That the ads have been lackluster. But I think its a stretch to say they have been a waste of money.
I would argue that he has total airwave supremacy and that must be counted as a huge advantage.
Has anyone not seen one of his ads on TV?
Every quarter fundraising has been crappy and every quarter they’ve said it will pick up Real Soon Now. At this point there aren’t enough quarters left.
But look at how Romanoff pisses you off?
Enjoy the competition for first loser.
… other than 4th-grade-level trash talk?
rising above their education level.
I blame it on GOPWhiners home schooling when there were still antelope roaming free in Aurora and he hadn’t signed up to fight the Kaiser yet. He spent too much time on skinning and gutting and not enough on his 3 R’s.