3 thoughts on “With Weins and Tidwell out, Norton can’t win”

1. The primary is not until August (so, of course, no one has won or lost it yet), and the likelihood that Norton will successfully petition onto the ballot is very great.

   Buck got more than 70% of the GOP state convention vote, so Norton does have to file a petition to get on the ballot.

   You are correct in stating that no one other than Buck and Norton are likely to be on the ballot.

   I do think that the fault lines within the Republican party in Colorado in the U.S. Senate race are between Norton and “anti-Norton” factions, so Buck will be able to unify the anti-Norton faction.

   Buck also has made the strongest showing of any of the insurgent state convention candidates in either party, although Norton’s decision to opt out of that process distorted the numbers.

   Norton will, IMHO, get more than 40% of the primary vote, and I am not at all clear who will win the primary.  The key factor will be how much momentum Buck can gain from campaign finance contributors between now and August.  If Buck doesn’t gain momentum on this front, he has a good chance of losing.  If establishment GOP figures see him as credible at this point and start to contribute in larger numbers now that the “Tea Party primary” is complete, he may have a real shot at the nomination.

   Should Buck win the nomination, the news will be good for the Democratic nominee.
   

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   1. Buck might be benefiting from the insurgent Republicans, but he’s hardly one of the “insurgent state convention candidates,” he was in the race for six months before Norton jumped in and has solid, mainstream Republican credentials. He had all the trappings of the establishment candidate until the NRSC decided they needed someone with better name recognition and better fundraising connections.  

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   2. Let me cite you to the Oracle of Boulder on this one:

      
      My take on Buck vs Norton
      
      Norton is toast.
      
      The Maes showing demonstrates that the base is not following orders – which is a gigantic change in the Republican party (and I think a good one for their future). Buck is doing so well Norton was afraid to even try the assembly.

      Buck is a very strong combo – he’s an establishment Republican politician that the tea party has embraced. That will almost certainly trump D.C. political connections and dollars.

      I also think Buck will be a much stronger opponent in the general election – this is not good news for Bennet/Romanoff.
      

      In terms of people on this board who are evenhanded, not me, and have insight, I have some, I agree with David’s take.

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