July 26, 2010 06:34 PM UTC

Election Predictions

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• by: Dan Willis

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

Post-Primary Update: 2010 is really fucking with my accuracy %!!!

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It has been my usual practice to make election predictions before every primary and every general. In the past I have made predictions in all state offices including the legdislative seats. And have been highly accurate, not 100%, but in the 90’s.

This year, I have been disassociated from the fray more than usual, partially by choice. So I will make predictions in the statewide and Denver local elections only since these are the only races I have adequate information for.

See after the jump for the predictions.

Democrats:

US Senate: Andrew Romanoff. I am bucking the odds on this one. I think Denver will be a draw between the two and the rest of state will go with who they know better.

SD34: Lucia Guzman. She seems to have a very large support advantage over Judd.

HD4: Jennifer Coken. Her logistical strategy is sound, and she has support from several leaders. Pabon is the stronger opponent and if it were a one on one I think it would be really close. The unknown factor is who will spoiler Amber Tafoya help the most.

HD5: Mark Thrun: Again, the stronger campaign strategy.

HD7: Angela Williams. I think she has had this sewn up for some time.

Republicans:

US Senate: Ken Buck. He seems to have the message that is resonating with GOP primary voters better.

Governor: Scott McInnis. I think the voters will forgive him faster than they will vote for someone as extreme as Maes. I do, however, expect a lot of undervotes in this race (people leaving it blank).

Treasurer: Walker Stapleton. I have no basis for my guess except my gut. Of course that could be breakfast not sitting right too.

HD9: Bob Lane. I have not seen any campaigning from Garbo and I live in the district.