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November 11, 2010 02:25 AM UTC

Dems: Colorado House Remains In Play

  • 51 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Colorado Democrats are pushing back with renewed vigor this afternoon on the idea that the GOP majority in the state House is settled, citing new numbers in the HD-29 race between Democratic incumbent Rep. Debbie Benefield and GOP challenger Robert Ramirez–numbers that could result in some serious heartburn for oh-so-presumptive Speaker Frank McNulty.

According to the Democratic House Majority Project, the most recent totals in the HD-29 race show “at least” 687 ballots of various descriptions left to be counted–including some 464 provisional ballots, and 223 “curable” ballots with minor problems that canvassers are attempting to resolve by today’s deadline.

GOP challenger Ramirez presently leads by only 208 votes–so 687 additional ballots could quite possibly blow this race wide open, and control of the Colorado House with it. Says Democratic Party chair Pat Waak, “Elections reflect the will of the people. With so many uncounted ballots in the Benefield race, it’s important to let the counting finish.” Full release follows.

As we’ve discussed, McNulty has not been very bashful about controversial possible changes to House committees and rules, basically jabbing a stick in the eye of Democrats on the strength of his razor-thin 33-32 majority merely because he could — and not because it served any sort of strategic purpose. Can you imagine the egg on McNulty’s face if control of the House is yanked out from under him? And from a purely practical standpoint, would Republicans feel a need to elect a different leader if they are not in the majority?

We think McNulty’s needless provocations were politically dumb anyway (silly gamesmanship stories are not the news headlines that Republicans should be seeking after such a close election), but they become so much more harmful if he’s no longer holding the Speaker’s gavel. How could McNulty possibly expect Democrats, if still in the majority, to negotiate in good faith with him after what he’s done already?

Stay tuned.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Critical Turning Point in “Too Close to Call” State House Race

New data shows state house majority remains undecided

As thousands of uncounted ballots continue to be sorted and verified for counting by county clerks around Colorado, new analysis confirms that State House District 29 race between Democratic Representative Debbie Benefield and Republican Robert Ramirez remains “too close to call.”  Analysis of new data shows there are at least 687 uncounted ballots in the district, and only 208 votes separating the candidates, the outcome of the election will remain in doubt until Tuesday of next week.

“The voters will have the final word in this election,” said Pat Waak, Colorado Democratic Party Chair. “As mail-in ballots continue to be verified while hardworking election officials make sure uncounted votes are processed correctly, the data shows that District 29 remains too close to call.”

With at least 687 uncounted ballots in the district, and Rep. Benefield currently down by 208 votes in the preliminary tally, there are too many uncounted ballots for Republicans to shut the door on the democratic process.

“Democrats are committed to honoring the vote,” added Waak. “Elections reflect the will of the people. With so many uncounted ballots in the Benefield race, it’s important to let the counting finish.”

With HD-29 undecided, control of the Colorado State House also remains undecided as well-with 32 Democrats and 32 Republicans currently awaiting the outcome of the HD-29 race to determine majority control over the chamber.

Editor’s notes:

· In the last few days, specific data from Jefferson County shows that there are 464 provisional ballots in the process of being verified that have yet to be counted.

· According to Colorado Secretary of State (SOS) data, currently the statewide average of provisionals being verified in the 2010 election is 88%.

· In addition, 223 “curable” mail-in ballots are outstanding in the district-where Jefferson County election officials asked voters to fix minor signature or identification problems before they could be officially counted.

· So far, 24,778 votes have been counted in the race-with at least 687 uncounted ballots.

· State statute mandate the last day for counting provisional and outstanding mail-in ballots is Tuesday, November 16th.

·  A statutory recount is triggered if the official tally of votes cast in a race are within 0.05% (one-half of one percent).

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51 thoughts on “Dems: Colorado House Remains In Play”

  1. If you really are of a mind to breach that wall of separation between church and state, as the Tea Party has repeatedly urged, this would be an excellent place to start;-)

  3. While the prospect of the presumptive Speaker of the House having to eat crow is enticing, the Democrats’ best hope is to close the gap enough to trigger a recount and then hope to prevail there. There just aren’t that many votes left to count.

    If the provisionals are ruled valid at the prevailing statewide rate, that would make 408 ballots left. Add the 223 curable mail ballots (at an unlikely 100% cure rate), that’s 631 ballots left to make up a 208 vote deficit. The votes in those uncounted ballots would have to swing 2-to-1 in Benefield’s favor to bring the race to a tie.

    Keep in mind, the unusually high number of provisional ballots this year appears to be predominantly Tancredo voters wanting to switch their mail ballot votes from Maes to a provisional ballot vote for Tancredo, so the hope there’s a landslide for Benefield among those votes is unlikely.

    How close does the final vote need to be for a recount? The margin between the two candidates will have to be roughly 65 votes for that to happen.

    2. I heard the margin for an automatic recount was in the low 60s, so I think you’re getting the right information.

      I’m very curious about what you say re: provisional ballots. Has there been reporting on provisionals being Maes-to-Tanc flips, or are you getting that from sources?

      Don’t get me wrong, RG, you’ve been around long enough that I trust your sources. That would be a very interesting, and conceivably plausible, explanation for the high number.

      1. That Tanc supporters were trying to convince people who had filled out mail ins but not turned them in yet to ask for providionals in order to vote for Tanc.  Don’t ask me where, at what point or how this supposedly took place.  It’s just something I heard the day after the election.

      2. on election night, that’s why clerks in some counties were running out of provisionals, and that’s what the voters were telling poll workers. There are, of course, lots of reasons for provisional ballots, but if a good number of them were Tancredo voters, it’s doubtful they’ll help Benefield.

        1. is just speculation.  Could be right.  Could be that these ballots could be like previous elections that the ballots overwhelming favor the Democrat.  We shall see only when the votes are counted.  That’s what Pat Waak said.  Only MADCO is stupid enough to say that it is over.  The answer is that the race is undecided.  Anyone who says differently and anyone who acts as if it’s over is an idiot.  It they get egg on their face, they will have done it to themselves.

        2. I had heard most of the folks getting provisional ballots to vote Tank were in Arapahoe – leading to the running out of ballots and having to use copies and sample ballots and whatnot.  I hadn’t heard of this happening much in JeffCo though.  Can anyone with more info comment?

          1. was one of several counties with an unusually high number of provisional ballots. The reason Arapahoe got so much attention is its clerk didn’t have enough provisional ballots on hand, so the Democrats filed an emergency lawsuit to force Doty to allow photocopied ballot forms to be used. Other counties were also swamped with requests for provisional ballots but were better prepared. The number of provisionals in Jeffco wasn’t as high, proportionally, as it was in Arapahoe, Weld, Douglas, Mesa, but a rough check of a dozen precincts on election day showed about 10-15% of ballots cast that day (not including mail ballot drop-offs) were provisional ballots, so it wasn’t negligible.

    3. It’s true that Benefield would have to get two-thirds of the provisional ballots in order to win the race outright.

      But pay attention to the last line of that press release – the margin needed for a recount.

      HD29 is entirely within Jefferson County. The unofficial results from the Clerk show Benefield shy by 208 votes.

      The total number of votes cast was 24,792. One-half percent of that is 124 votes. So Benefield really only needs to gain 84 more votes than Ramirez from the provisional ballots, which if I figure this right is 386 votes out of 687, about 56 percent of the ballots, to put this into an automatic recount. Yes, it’s slim, but stranger things have happened.

      1. Do you have any updated numbers from this race?

        It appears that as of November 5 Benefield was down 292 votes and has picked up 84 votes since than.  Did she pick up any more yesterday?

        Realistically for a recount to change the result the final margin needs to be around 25 total votes.  

        1. They’re listed as unofficial but as far as I know do NOT include the provisional ballots – and may not include final counts on some mail-in ballots, according to one of my sources outside of that office.

          1. The numbers on the website include all regular ballot except some that were mail ballots that had not been signed. Those voters had until yesterday to get into th office to sign themn.

            The website numbers included no provisions. I was told the provision outcome numbers would not be released until approx the 17th but maybe as late as the 19th.

      2. If the top vote getter has 12,500

        And the second vote getter as 12, 292

        The difference needs to be within 1/2 of 1% of 12.500, the greatest number cast for the top vote getter.

        So that’s about 63 votes.

        3. Based on the current reported results, that works out to a 62 vote spread. Again, possible, but not likely.

          Also about recounts: they only time I have seen recounts change a vote outcome by more than 1 or 2 votes was a case of misconduct on the part of the election official (it was not in Colorado). There is no suggestion of such misconduct in the Ramirez/Benefield case.

      3. Or the part where I said

        the Democrats’ best hope is to close the gap enough to trigger a recount and then hope to prevail there.

        and then accurately laid out what the margin to trigger a recount would be.

  4. Nicholson currently holds a 537 vote lead but they don’t expect anything to be certain until the 19th.

    If Nicholson wins it will be a liberal grandma taking out a Tea Party extremist.  It is going to be extra humiliating if ultra hard ass Leonard can’t beat a grandma in a Republican wave year.

    1. but 500 or even 400 votes are a lot to make up in a state HD or SD race. RG lays it out pretty well. It isn’t completely impossible but pretty close.  We can hope, though.

      1. In case you are curious I am up 537 votes as of today Monday, November 8 according to the 6 county clerk anad recorder websites. Still more votes to count.The election results won’t be official until November 20 but we are going in the right direction! 60,009 votes total  = 1/2 % =300 votes required for a recount so if we can keep the 537 gap we won’t need to deal with a recount.

        (For some reason the newspapers and the internet are not current on the status of the race…guess they have moved on to more important news!)

        Take care,

        Jeanne

      2. since this thread started out discussing Benefield’s deficit I completely misread this one, having a Dem deficit in mind.  Of course we hope hope liberal grandma stays ahead and hope that Benefield has an unlikely triumph.

  5. of being in a meeting today with Rep. Stephens.  Her first comment was, “As the new house majority leader ….”.  She struck me as a smarmy [you pick the noun].

    3. and, without exception, it has been a pleasure.

      She is smart, gracious, and while conservative, lives firmly on our planet.  I wish her only the best in her new post.

  6. Yes it really sucks, but here it is:

    Assuming the nuimber of uncounted in the press release is correct(the number of counted ones is off by about 20), AND assuming all 687 uncounted ballots are counted, counted in the HD race, and do not have undervotes in this race (ginormous assumption), that means Debbie has to get 448 of those 687 votes to make up the current deficit. Ramirez only needs 240 of them to be the final victor.

    So, in a nutshell, Benefield needs roughly 2/3 of the remaining ballots. She has received only slightly under 1/2 of the ballots counted so far.

    Propects look bleak.

  7. Ballots show up here and there, trunks, trashcans – seem to almost always benefit Democrats.  On Election Night, more than one TV station reported that many provisional ballots were from people who admitted voting by mail but weren’t sure they would count.  May they all be prosecuted for voter fraud.

    1. “Voter fraud” would require the intention to have more than one vote counted. The process of checking Provisional ballots weeds out the duplication.

      If, for example, one was not sure a mailed ballot would be delivered in time, one can–legally–cast a provisional ballot. If the original did arrive in time to be counted, it is counted and the provisional is not. If the mailed ballot is never delivered, or delivered after the official closing of polls and is therefore not eligible, the Provisional ballot is counted–legally, correctly, no fraud involved. In this example, there was no intention of having more than one vote count. The voter relied on the Clerk’s system working to avoid that outcome.

      If some of these people hoped their first ballot would not count, well, if it arrived on time, they were out of luck on their Provisional, but it was not fraud. Extra work for the Clerk’s offices, unfortunately.

      As far as I know, lying about ones reason (“changed my mine” is not one of the reasons listed on the Provisional Ballot form) won’t get you into trouble except with your own integrity. But in this case lying about the reason is not “voter fraud.”

      Now if someone tried–intended–to get more than one ballot counted, that is voter fraud. And Clerk’s who suspect that can follow up and take action.  

      1. Very well reasoned and backed-up.  This belies the idea that there are lots of ballots in which people first voted for Maes and then wanted to change for Tank.  The reality is that they can’t do that.  If their first ballot arrives in time for the election, the provisional doesn’t get counted.  This means the ballots where people tried to change their vote from Maes to Tank won’t be counted for the most part.  Since 88% of ballots in other counties are being counted, it is possible that there will be that many counted in Jeffco too.  It is also possible that those will be overwhelmingly for the Democrat as they have been in the past.  ERGO, MADCO may be wrong.  We will just have to wait to see the votes counted.

          1. If the first ballot arrives WHERE?

            WHERE? In the possession of the County Clerk, possession being dropped into an official ballot box (where ever located), delivered to an official drop off point (some had drive up collection), etc.

        2. but the allegation in an above post is that Tank was asking people who had filled out their ballots for Maes but NOT YET MAILED Them could get a provo.  As long as the original ballot isn’t actually mailed, that seems within the rules.

            But frustrating though it may be, wait for the count.  In my experience, provos go about 60/40 Democrat, which won’t do it for Benefield.  But this is the year to toss out the playbook and just count the damn votes.

  8. To continue counting votes would do irreperable harm to Mr. Ramirez, not to mention Mr. McNulty.

    The precedent is set: let the Colorado Supreme Court decide.

  9. No way that assuming all 687 ballots are valid and they cast votes for State House that Debbie Benefield will get 481 of those votes.  

    Unless they counted the votes and she did.  In which case Go Debbie!

    Is there a final count yet?

  10. I’d hate to see partisanship turned up to 11 in this state if that happened this way. I also think it’s highly unlikely that Benefield could make a comeback. It’ll be entertaining to watch though.

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