President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 16, 2012 09:29 PM UTC
15 Comments
Per the Arapahoe County clerk’s website this morning.
Active voters:
GOP 88,083
DEM 78,472
Ouch. Dems had the lead in the ’08 campaign.
A silver lining: only 57% of voting age residents are registered to vote.
Bottom line — We need to redouble our voter registration efforts in Arapahoe County (and, maybe the entire state).
🙂
Did Dems have the lead at the end of July in 2008? Lets compare apples with apples.
1) It is now the middle of August, and I think they update their numbers regularly.
2) I remember telling reporters at the DNC that I ran into, like Chuck Todd and Wolf Blitzer, that we had the lead at that time.
3) 9,600 is a lot to be behind.
4) See ArapaGOoP’s comment above.
Are there any numbers for CD 3?
Is the DCCC planning to go on the air anytime soon?
I’ll take these numbers, especially adding 5 for house effect (good suggestion Pols). Welcome back Rep. Coffman.
It’s a PPP poll? Make that a 10 point house effect. Thanks, Pols!
You have to look at how one pollster does against the average of all pollsters over time.
Rasmussen is consistently more Republican than the average of all the other polls. Apparently this comes from using a likely voter screen that results in a Republican bias.
PPP is in the middle of the average of all the polls, so it doesn’t have a house effect.
The New York Times’s polling expert Nate Silver found that Rasmussen has a +1.3 GOP “house effect” lean, whereas PPP has a +3.2 DEM lean this election.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…
But nice try pulling facts out of your ass…
And it’s based on modelling. Sort of like the climate change you won’t accept. But I guess modelling works if it tells you what you want to hear, though.
Try reading what the post actually says, okay?
PPP/DFA used in their polling. At least, Rasmussen Reports allows you to read about their methodology and see the survey question wording for each of their polls. I didn’t see that option for either PPP or DFA. By the way, Pulse Opinion Research, actually does the polling for Rasmussen.
Generally when PPP polls, all of that is available. Given that DFA is the client, though, they might not have released it this time. Daily Kos uses PPP for most of their polling, and their polls offer full crosstabs – much more detailed than Rasmussen’s polls.
Also, POR is a subsidiary of Rasmussen, not the other way around. POR was created it seems to provide FOX News surveys without directly tying in to the Rasmussen name.
Read charitably, no one is paying attention, which means Miklosi with less name recognition has more room to growth than incumbent Coffman. It would be interesting to see how the raw two man race numbers line up with favorable, unfavorable, no opinion numbers on each man. If Coffman has a major favorability problem, I’m inclined to give the top line numbers more credit and see it as generalized backlash against an unpopular Congress from moderates. But, if Coffman has high “no opinion” numbers in his column, I’m pretty skeptical, because he is very much a known quantity in Colorado politics.
Read less charitably, PPP has deliberately chosen to not push for a “leaning” opinions very hard out of fear that the 6th CD, even as redistricted may have more people who are likely voters who lean GOP than lean Dem, and therefore would rather have no opinion than a bad one. Given the voter registration balance, this is a real possibility for something that influenced the survey design. A close number attracts more donations than a less close one.
I could call four pages of names and only get a couple people at home. Seems many Coloradans have ditched their land lines for cell phones. Any guess how this will play out in this election? What does it say about the accuracy of polls? About Coffmans (faux) phone “town halls”, where his office robo-calls an announcement-type conference call?