Onsight/Keating in Colorado: Obama 49%, Romney 44%

A new poll out today from Keating Research and Onsight Public Affairs for Project New America shows Obama slightly expanding his lead in Colorado, now up 49-44% from the last result of 48-44% released in late August. More important than that small overall change, though, is a big indicated shift away from Romney by unaffiliated voters. From Onsight’s release:

Obama’s five-point lead is due largely to growing support among the key demographic of unaffiliated voters, according to the second survey in a series of live-interview tracking polls released by Keating Research, Inc., Onsight Public Affairs and Project New America leading up to the November election.

“The fact that the race for Colorado is still very close may be the only good news for Mitt Romney coming out of the conventions,” said Mike Melanson, senior partner at OnSight Public Affairs. “Romney needed to improve his likability, but it appears Coloradans find him less likable than they did before the convention. Meanwhile, Obama has made significant gains among unaffiliated voters and maintained a solid lead among women.”

A poll conducted August 21-22 showed Obama with a four-point lead over Romney, 48 percent to 44 percent. Since that poll, Obama has added nine points to his advantage among unaffiliated voters, improving from a 50 percent to 36 percent margin in August to a 55-32 percent advantage in the latest survey. [Pols emphasis]

A majority of Colorado voters, 51 percent, are now favorable toward Obama compared to 47 percent favorable toward Romney.  Obama improved his standing with unaffiliated voters by four points, from 52 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable in August to a 55-42 split after the convention.  But just 37 percent of unaffiliated voters view Romney favorably, while 59 percent say they have an unfavorable view of him. In August, the GOP challenger’s favorability split was 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable among unaffiliated voters.

“President Obama’s numbers are up among unaffiliated voters suggesting that the Democratic convention helped him connect with Colorado’s critical voting block,” said Jill Hanauer, CEO of Project New America. “The favorability gap between the President and Romney represent a key advantage going forward.”

Toplines here.

8 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. The one-percent change overall suggests one of a few things:

    1) Republicans are coming home to Romney after being unsure back in late August

    2) The poll sample has more Republicans

    3) The poll results are weighted more toward Republicans

    (2) or (3) could be due to a Likely Voter screen vs. Registered Voter screen switch between the two polls.  E.g. Daily Kos switched their PPP polling from RV to LV during the convention, so Obama gained only a couple of points in their tracker vs. 5 points on average of all the trackers.

    • Libertad says:

      91% of respondents are likely voters.

      21% make over $100k/year.

      • Tom says:

        since they seem to be screening for likely voters, I wonder what criteria were used to include respondents that didn’t explicitly say they were likely to vote.

        Likely voter polls that I’ve taken generally started with a question like “are you going to vote in November?” and saying no ended the interview. Perhaps they responded “not sure” rather than “no”

  2. Obama is closing in on the magic 50% here in Colorado.  It’s hard to win if your opponent collects an outright majority of support.

  3. caroman says:

    My canvassing in Arapahoe County confirms that unaffilateds are turning away from Romney, and slowly turning toward Obama.  

    I suspect the remaining unaffiliateds will make the switch to Obama when they conclude that Romney is unfit to be commander-in-chief.  Romney’s latest attack on Obama will backfire badly with unaffiliateds.  Colin Powell endorsing Obama for another term will seal the deal just like last time.

    Now, Miklosi needs to tie Coffman to Romney to have a good chance in CD6.

    • Fidel's dirt nap says:

      come November, an angry old 1950′s teetotaling Republican with his head up his ass will stop annoying the shit out of virtually everyone, and will go back to annoying Ann and the help.  Maybe he’ll take up a hobby.  Idle hands are the devils workshop they say.  Maybe building those fucking minature tall ships inside of bottles…” Ann, can’t you see I’m BUSY HERE ! “

  4. Libby will be happy that the Ras tracker has Romney back on top of Obama.  But they’re the only one, and after Mitt’s mega-gaffe yesterday, it might be short-lived.

    NBC/WSJ/Marist had three swing-state polls out today with Obama leading nicely in OH and FL, and more closely in VA.

    Oh – I got polled last night on the Presidential race; might be a private (R) poll, so I’m not expecting to see the results.

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