ARG in Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46%

A heartburn inspiring poll for Democrats to add to the post-debate pile, The Hill:

[I]n Colorado, likely voters went for Romney 50 to 46 over Obama, in ARG’s poll. Romney soundly outpaced Obama among female voters in the state, taking 51 percent support against Obama at 45.

Obama led by 3 in Colorado heading into last week’s debate at the University of Denver, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. The candidates are now locked at 47, according to the RCP average.

Ohio and Colorado are two of the 12 states President Bush won in 2004 that Obama took in 2008. These 12 battleground states will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election.

The last American Research Group poll of Colorado in mid-September found Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by two points–if anything a bit narrower lead for Obama than other polls at the time, though the swing in raw numerical terms since last Wednesday’s tough debate for Obama in Denver, is consistent with most polling. The best description of polling we’ve seen in the days since the debate is “volatile”–full of more surprises than what you’d responsibly call trends. Each poll needs to be checked against both its own history, and other contemporary polls, to achieve something you can consider a full picture.

Particularly noteworthy in this, and other post-debate polls we’ve seen is a loss of Obama’s support among women voters. We’re not in a position to fully explain that change, but given the underlying issues, we still think Obama is in a better position to win women voters back before Election Day than Romney is to make his post-debate bounce last a whole month. This is especially true if Obama manages to strike back on a host of issues he inexplicably forgot, left on the table, or was too afraid of appearing combative to mention–the arguments against Romney that had put Obama into an increasingly decisive lead before the debate.

But if you’re a Democrat, and aren’t worried about this turn of events, you aren’t paying attention.

16 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. caroman says:

    Check out what Kos said just a few minutes ago: http://www.dailykos.com/story/

    • caroman says:

      Highlights from Kos analysis cited above (read the whole article to really feel better):

      1) Polls in the field on Thursday and Friday are terrible for Obama.  Per ABC News, the bump for Romney on Thursday faded thereafter.

      2) CNN poll just released for Ohio (Friday – Monday): Obama 51, Romney 47.

      3) Gallup’s daily tracking poll pre-debate had Obama +5. Immediate post-debate — even. Monday-Tuesday post-debate: Obama +5.

      4) Romney’s favorable/unfavorable is 47/51.  Obama is 55/44.  Romney improved by +1 from pre-debate.  Obama improved by +2.

      Bottom-line: Check the dates of when the polls were in the field.  Anything after Friday should be favorable for Obama.

      Note to Obama/Biden: Don’t screw up again.

  2. ProgressiveCowgirlProgressiveCowgirl says:

    Let’s not be lulled into complacency by any of the many reasons Obama SHOULD win Colorado and the presidency. Time to lace the walking shoes up and flex the dialing fingers, Dems!

  3. nancycronknancycronk says:

    and now this, I’m taking a humor break today before my head explodes. Here’s some humor for us all.

  4. Gilpin GuyGilpin Guy says:

    Whoever turns out their base is going to win.

    Bennet won on a determined GOTV surge in the last weekend of the 2010 election.  History says a good GOTV operation is worth 1-2%.

    Nobody should wet your pants over these results including an orgasmic Libby.  Hookup with an OFA team and make up the difference.

  5. Early WormEarly Worm says:

    It won’t be close. Nationally, Obama carried women by 13% in 2008.  If all Obama gets is a split, he is toast. Obama better be ready to come out fighting on women’s issues in the town hall debate. There is plenty grist for the mill.

  6. Lurker19 says:

    that said push 2 if you’re female.  So I pushed 2, then it repeated itself.  When I pushed 2 again, the poll disconnected.

    So if ARG was that robo poll, they may have limited the number of females who could respond.

    Inadvertently, or advertently?  Dunno, but I couldn’t register that I am voting for Obama because I indicated I’m a female.

    • gertie97 says:

      Sometimes it disconnects on female, others on Democrat, others on age.

      The most interesting one came tonight, from sometime the robocall rushed through as “data services.” It asked if I planned to vote early or on election day. When I responded election day, it went away.”

  7. JeffcoBlueJeffcoBlue says:

    I am working harder. I am sacrificing more free time to volunteer and organize. I am donating.

    Enough hand wringing. I’m standing between Romney and the White House.

    And I’m not moving!

  8. ArapaGOPArapaGOP says:

    President Romney is going to be good for this country. He’s going to help bring us all together after four years of smirking arrogance and division. I predict a lot of Romney Democrats in 2016.

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