Republicans shouldn’t feel good about Denver Post exit poll showing gender gap decline

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

I’m late getting to this, but I’ve been hearing conservatives trying to make themselves feel better about their election collapse by saying they successfully cut the gender gap in Colorado.

I’m thinking they might have scanned every word in The Denver Post, searching for something good, and found this sentence in a Nov. 6 article:

Although many polls nationally predicted a significant gender gap, Colorado exit polls showed women and men split equally.

Later, Democratic consultant Craig Hughes tweeted:

Craig Hughes@CraigHughesinCO

Dear Media: The Colorado exit polls are simply not accurate. Trust them at your own risk. Thank you. #copolitics

I asked Hughes to amplify, and he sent me these thoughts in an email.

First, we know the exits originally said that Colorado was tied at 48% for each candidate – when final results are tallied, Obama will carry Colorado by over 5%, so that’s a significant miss.  Second, the exits show that Obama’s Colorado margin was bigger among men (+5%) than women (+3%) which runs contrary to every single public and private poll conducted over the past two years.  In reality, Obama almost certainly carried women with a double digit margin.  Third, the exits list “NA” for voters aged 18-29, even though they make up 20% of the electorate, a larger portion than voters 65+.  Given those sample sizes, how is it they are unable to show results for voters aged 18-29?

Fourth, there are also exit poll results published by Latino Decisions that show Obama received 87% of the Latino vote, while the networks survey shows 75%.  I’d say 75% seems about right, but that’s a pretty big discrepancy.

If people want a look at what the electorate likely was, I’d suggest looking at the poll by Keating Research conducted just prior to the election that showed Obama +4%.  His numbers are more reliable to me than anything I have seen out of the exit polls in this, or previous, cycles (again, ask President Kerry about exit poll reliability).

So if you happen to be one of those Republicans who was feeling good because of those 18 encouraging words in the Denver Post, about women liking you more than before, I’m sorry I had to be the one, with the help of Hughes, to set the record straight.

10 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. NativeSon says:

    Mail in voting changes the equation.  Exit polls are no longer accurate.

  2. nancycronknancycronk says:

    However, I also think the Dems need to diversify the message to women next time around. I spoke with more than a few women in the burbs while canvassing that had formerly voted for Obama but were turned off by the constant commercials about Choice. The DCCC forgets there are a lot of pro-life or on-the-fence Democratic women out there, too (mostly Catholic, but not all). One of my friends who switched to Romney was Jewish, and her family has three generations of labor union attorneys (died-in-the-wool Dems). He only R-leaning issue is being anti-abortion. Obama lost her vote because every commercial in Colorado directed toward women was about Choice. If the message toward women was diversified, I think we would have won the suburbs in much greater numbers.

    This being said by a solidly committed pro-choice blogger, btw.

  3. caroman says:

    Thank God he’s on our side.

  4. Old Time Dem says:

    The fact that Colorado men vote like women in the rest of the country (i.e., Democratic) cannot be given a positive spin for Republicans.

  5. VanDammerVanDammer says:

    Is Obama or the Dems to blame for every support expenditure that happened in CO? Did they have any say over what a 507 or a PAC wants to interject into the conversation?  NO and you know that.  You wanna back off your generalization and blame or do you stand by your anecdotes?  Frankly if you couldn’t/didn’t explain that to your J friend or if she was soo fucking myopic to let that rule her vote the let the GOP have those crossover idiots.

  6. BlueCat says:

    even with men and women splitting equally, they’re in even more trouble than they think. Although I do agree about the inaccuracy of exit polls.  It’s a self selecting kind of poll and many people will refuse to participate in an exit poll.  In canvassing, many people not only refuse to say who they are thinking of voting for but believe it’s illegal to even ask. Also people voting in the company of a spouse may not want to admit they voted other than the way they know their spouse voted.

  7. nancycronknancycronk says:

    I am talking about overall Dem strategy. I am not criticizing the Obama campaign. I think they did a BRILLIANT job. My point is that it is something we can do better next time — to remember that women are 51% of the U.S. population, and one message is not enough. Colorado saw an attempt to reach women that was too narrowly focused. We can do better the next time.

  8. nancycronknancycronk says:

    It was an impressive effort statewide!

  9. nancycronknancycronk says:

    I went to many Women for Obama events and there were many issues being discussed. The Obama campaign nailed it. Craig, Carrie, Sergio, Rosemary — every one should take a huge bow.

    If only the DCCC and the PACS got the same memo (that women are not one-dimensional beings)… The fact that they didn’t indicates the various campaigns were following campaign finance law well… if they had coordinated anything, the message toward women would not have been so redundant on television.

    In Colorado, the Democrats did a great job on the ground, too. Udall, Bennet, DeGette, Polis, and Perlmutter should be commended for working hard to help Miklosi and Pace, as well as the President. The Dem staff did a great job using technology and wisely using funds. The state level races were aggressive. The many visits by celebrities were coordinated well, in conjunction with party leadership. 90% of what was done in Colorado was a huge success. My one criticism, which is largely toward the DCCC and national Dem strategists, is only a small part of a very successful puzzle.  

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