CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
50%↑
15%
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 02, 2013 06:21 AM UTC
39 Comments
This is the Tea Party strategy as I see it.
1) Just about a week ago, Cruz did his 21 hour rant against Obamacare. This did two things-Put Cruz in the spotlight and highlighted the arguments against Obamacare.
On the same day, tea party people fired a shot across the bow of the “Republican elite,” charging them with “thwarting the will of the people” and intimating them with the possibility of tea party challenges, not just in district elections, but for party positions.
The goal was to force Boehner into a “no compromise” position on defunding Obamacare or to delay funding for a year, in the Continuing Resolutions that the House sent to the Senate. And, to convince Boehner not to allow a vote on the “clean” CR from the Senate. Cruz lobbied Republicans in the House and by Saturday, he had cowed Boehner, who is now on board with that strategy.
The Republicans are talking about a “united front” behind Cruz with Boehner supporting the Cruz/tea party faction. Cruz was all over Sunday talk shows consolidating his position.
(Evidently, there are enough Democratic and Republican votes in the House to pass the Senate clean CR resolution; but allowing that vote would cost Boehner his Speakership. I don’t understand the latter contention because I don’t understand what the “rogue” Republicans would do….the “rogue” Republicans are now the moderates, like Peter King.)
The first part of the Tea Party strategy was successful.
2) The second part of the strategy was to allow the government shut down.
3) The third part of the strategy is to capitalize on the glitches in the Obama care new health insurance “exchanges” and the increase in some premiums and other problems attributed to Obama Care. Talk radio is critical to this PR effort. Yesterday, the lines
were open all day as people called in to complain about crashing websites and in comprehensible instructions. The goal here was to create public opinion that Obamacare
was so awful that the republicans were right to try and defund or postpone its implementation.
I am not so sure that this is working. People are frustrated with the technological problems, but, my sense is that the public wants the problems fixed NOW without anymore delays. This is strategy that may backfire on the Republicans.
4) The ongoing House republican strategy now is to:
– Influence public opinion by sending small funding bills to the Senate that would fund popular programs…such as VA services and National Parks. It is anticipated that Reid would not allow such bills to come to the Senate floor and the repubs would then publicize Reid’s refusal.
-Attempt to break the solidarity among Democrats in the Senate by “pealing off”
One or two vulnerable Democratic Senators with such bills. Joe Manchin of West Virginia is sent as one potential break away.
-Work to shift blame from Congress to the President, i.e. “ The President won’t negotiate and won’t intervene to help break the deadlock.” Chris Christie, certainly not a Tea Party favorite, but part of the new “United Front” initiated this campaign by his attack on Obama, yesterday, for not “being in charge.” (Talk radio is reporting that Obama wanted to get Reid and Boehner together in the White House and Reid refused. This may not be factual, but it is the kind of rumor that can be spread via talk radio.)
President Obama is scheduled for a trip to the Far East shortly. If he leaves the country, with the government shut-down and Congress in deadlock, I predict, the public will turn against him and with that, the dems will lost all leverage.
Correction:
Joe Manchin of West Virginia is seen as one potential break away. – See more at: http://coloradopols.com/diary/50197/government-shutdown-day-2-open-thread#comment-526914
Oh noes!
Senator Tim Kane of Virginia is reported to have said he did not know how he would vote if a "mini-funding" bill came to the Senate…perhaps to fund National Parks or NIH. Put Kane in the "maybe can be pealed away" column.
It's simple.
Since 1908 the successsful have several common elements, but stong, dominant even, pitching always.
Anyone talking about uniform colors, beer selction, parking, HR's, double plays, slugging pct. and any of a hundred other things just don't have the math on their side.
OTOH- I am the first to acknowledge that sometimes the math must be specific to the situation, and Oh-fer 105 means it could be the place.
In the end I think Reid will be able to convince them that this is the same tactic that netted Republicans such success in 2010 with the debt ceiling "compromise" – passing some important programs (parks, which == local money) does not equal full funding for other important but often less visible programs (like food stamps, unemployment, and basic science research).
Proof once again that you're so much safer carrying a concealed weapon.
20 years from now Morse & Giron will be looking back with a great sense of pride in the choice they made and the laws they passed. Those that voted against the gun laws out of political expediency, not as much.
Truly tragic for the girlfriend and her family. Boyfriend is probably thinking, "Geez, it could have been a lot worse, I almost blew my nuts off!"
Really interesting – Children aren’t born smart. They’re made smart by conversation.
Shutdown impact on the military – I haven't seen any news stories on this but a couple of friends who are in the military said they're basically shut down. Civilian contractors are part of pretty much everything they do so the remaining people are focused on keeping the lights on and that's about it.
David,
President Obama did sign a bill, yesterday, that allows soldiers to be paid during the shut down. Secretary of Defense Hegel has said that the shut down is compromising military readiness.
Just because they can meet payroll doesn't mean they can fund other stuff.
And, as David points out, so much is now so dependent on independent, civilian contractors.
This is probaby why: "
"Secretary of Defense Hegel has said that the shut down is compromising military readiness".
– See more at: http://coloradopols.com/diary/50197/government-shutdown-day-2-open-thread#comment-526937
What's open, what's not: Shutdown stories collected by Al Jazeera America:
Anybody been perusing the RealClear latest polling page? In the past week or so Obama's job approval numbers have remained in negative territory but often decreasingly so and today, post shut down, a Rasmussen (yes, ArapGops favorite pollsters) poll has Obama one point into positive job approval/disapproval territory for the first time in ages.
The generic congressional preference polls have had Dems averaging ever so slightly in the lead but suddenly this jump from Quinnipiac, another right leaning pollster: Dems 43, Rs 34, a brand new 9 point lead. And yes we all know the generic doesn't reflect how people will vote in their own districts, especially safe ones, but it does reflect trends, especially in this point range, and despite gerrymandering not every district is yet safe.
Newspapers have stories of other polls that show an overwhelming preference for the view that, even if you don't approve ACA/Obamacare, it isn't so bad that stopping it is worth a government shut down. Also that that the GOP campaign to shift the blame to Obama and the Dems isn't working. Polls still show Rs shouldering most of the blame.
The financial pages are full of stories about how, first the sequestration, now this have been drags on the economy that will get much worse if followed by a debt ceiling crisis.
The whole crisis is drawing so much attention to ACA that it's quite likely more people are hearing about and paying at least some attention to what's actually in it. They might even be finding out that ACA and Obamacare are the same thing.
Certainly the opening day response was huge, an opening day the Tea Party failed to stop. And if I were a Republican I wouldn't get too excited over roll out glitches turning people against ACA.. We've all seen plenty of early glitches before every time something big and new rolls out in cyber world and have seen them fade away.
Maybe the major cataclysmic shift the Tea Party wingnuts have been going for isn't going to turn out to be the one they wished for after all.
Might I add another way in which this tea party's government shut down could explode in their faces. The debt limit fight is looming. In my opinion, part of the reason the tea party was able to get concessions (sequester) on the previous debt ceiling fight was that they were able to tie the debt ceiling with the federal budget/deficit/debt. It didn't matter that it was not true, they were able to message that raising the debt ceiling was somehow representatvie of runaway government spending. Now, with another debt ceiling "crises" approaching, the the focus is on the shutdown, which is being caused by the tea party's overriding goal of stopping the ACA. Their message "debt ceiling = budget crisis" will be replaced with "debt ceiling = Stop Obamacare." That is a very bad message for them. Many (maybe even a majority) of Americans do not like Obamacare, but very few want to destroy the economy to stop it. And if the tea party does that, or even threatens that, they will be revealed as the nut jobs they are.
About the comong debt ceiling fight….more public polling shows a majority would prefer to see the debt ceiling raised when explained to them in the following factually accurate way and I find it interesting that even among Rs only 52% think failure to raise the ceiling wuld be a good thing. Thats a lot fewer than the percentage of Rs who oppose Dems on ACA and most other important issues.
MSNBC is reporting that Obama has canceled his Asian trip (Good.) and that there will be a meeting this afternoon at the White House among Boehner, Polosi, McConnell and Reid. Boehner and now McConnell have already put out a statement that the President has "caved" and agreed to negotiate. For any of you that remember the Cuban Missile crisis, the Kennedy Brothers found a face saving way for Krushchev to retreat…..maybe that is what is going on, now. I am impressed with what happened with Syria and that confrontation. It is not clear exactly what the President did, but the crisis is adverted and Obama got what he wanted…
Cruz has issued a statement claiming that the President shut out WWII veterans from their memorial. Weak. IMHO. Cruz may go up in smoke.
But, it is not over, until it is over…..
Am I going to be attending this free joint giveaway? Hell no. Am I amused by this flyer? Hell yes.
Damn — $1,000 minimum to get a single spliff ??!!?? This effin' taxation thing is really driving the price of legal weed astronomical . . .
Ha ha ha! Nahahawww…the joints are free outside at the anti-AA protest, so it's been written in Westword. It costs $1-5K to share a pint inside with the Governor…and here I remember the days when you only had to pay $4 or so to have one with Hickenlooper at his Wynkoop Brewing Company. Hey, still time to run down there for a comp doobie if you want one…
Hello: Longtime reader of Pols, first ever post…Denver native now living in C-Springz, I found this map in the Washington Post interesting: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/business/diversify-economy/?hpid=z2.
It says that Colorado Springs has the highest percentage of government workers…interesting for such an anti-government place…
Not really. Pretty typical. For one thing many rank and file Rs seem to think the military is somehow not a function of the government. Some of them famously think medicare isn't a function of the government. You're dealing with people divided between the hopelessly ignorant and the nakedly hypocritical and manipulative. Wait until they see what an effect screwing government has on all business in C Springs.
Unfortunately, the people who hate the government but think they love our troops, even as their party fights to make cuts that benefit the top 1% while screwing troops and vets, will easily believe what they' re told by the GOTP. That it's all Obama's fault.
And, of course, in such a vet heavy town, between medicare and the VA, an unusually high proportion of nice, white, Republican C Springs citizens enjoy quality "socialized" medicine while endorsing shutting down government to prevent other people and their families from having access to affordable quality healthcare.
I beg to disagree.
I think most Rs embrace militarism as policy and economics, and consider military expense and prioritization as one of the few legitimate roles in government, just not when it means the government getting all up in everyone's shit, particulary when the government is that Muslim black guy.
No need to beg.
Here's one moderate GOP Congressman has to say about the Tea Party radicals:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/01/government-shutdown-congress_n_4026365.html
What Republicans don't want you (and any other Republicans) to know:
Why the Health Care Law Scares the G.O.P.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/02/business/economy/why-the-health-care-law-scares-the-gop.html?src=me&ref=general
Ignorance is . . . . . . power!
Big surprise: Mike Coffman is not part of the "Reasonable" Caucus. Seventeen GOPers now support voting for a clean CR and ending the government shutdown. Mike Coffman is not one of them.
It's time for Romanoff to question Coffman's "bipartisan" credentials.
Andrew, wherefore art thou, Andrew?
THIS is what happens when we have a government shutdown.
http://rt.com/news/libya-russian-embassy-attack-651/
@davebarnes: What is the relationship of the bombing of the Russian embassy in Libya to a US government shutdown?
Is Voyager still around? I have a question for him, as a journalist. I would like someone with a command of history and access to a good database, to look closely at Rafael Cruz. My information comes from a variety of sources that may or may not be accurate. He supposedly was a teenager in Bastista's Cuba. He didn't like Bastista and so he joined Castro's soldiers in the Oriente. He was imprisoned and beated, by whom? He left Cuba in 1957 when he was 18, evidently after his sojourn with Castro's band in the mountains and his run ins with Bastista's government. He was only 18. Fidel Castro was not successful in overthrowing Bastista for two more years, 1959.
In 1957, Cruz came to the US and settled in Texas. What was his immigrant status at that time? What was his draft status? He worked seven days a week and earned in engineering degree from the University of Texas around 1961. During this time, Castro was quite popular on college campus and the Fair Play for Cuba Committee was operative. Was Cruz at all involved in politics? He married and at one point went to work in New Orleans. He got a diivorced. remarried, was in Canada by 1970 and somewhere along the the line became a Canadian citizen.
Until 1966, his middle class parents remained in Cuba. Did their son's previous political activies cause them any problems? They evidently came to the US in 1966? How? What was their status? Ted Cruz was evidently groomed by his father for a political career. Cruz is brilliant and has, less than a year of being elected to the Senate, engineered a situation that may bring this country to financial disaster within weeks. Who is his father and what is his real agenda?
I think Voyager is several million miles beyond the orbit of Pluto, as I understand it….and still going….
I think Cruz the younger is sufficiently appalling in his own right that we don't need to spend a lot of effort digging up dirt on his daddy to bring in to it. Let's leave that kind of thing to the rightie crazoids with their theories about Obama's dad making him an anti-colonialist (bad thing?) white hating, Muslim (so what if he was Muslim, though he clearly isn't?) Kenyan Mao Mao guy, shall we?
Now if what you're getting at is that they are both somehow involved in some huge ongoing Cuban conspiracy stretching back to 1957, then you really have been spending way to much time "monitoring" righty radio and picking up their habits and maybe your very own tinfoil hat.
Don't see how Voyageur can help you with your "theory" spinning but he's been commenting recently so, yes, he's around.
This pretty much sums it up:
Here's Boenher defending his bridge:
Not sure what happened the first time.
VA backlog increases 2000 per day of shutdown. 19,000 preschool kids kicked out of Head Start, and not into privately funded charter schools, either.
Pregnant women and poor young families not getting their WIC benefits.When you really look forward to those government food supplements, you're pretty desperate. I've been there.
I hope that the Republican reps are getting an earful from their constituents. They can pose with WWII vets all they want, blaming the Democrats for the shutdown. Nobody except their tiny fierce little base beleives them.
But according to Fox it's a big nothing, not even noticeable, On the other hand this not even noticeable level of hardship is all Obama's fault. So which is it? No big deal or a bad thing that's all Obama's fault? Guess for Fox fans there's no reason why it can't be both.