(Promoted by Colorado Pols)
UPDATE: State Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg confirmed this afternoon that he has been “looking at” running for U.S. Senate for “several months” but was waiting on “George Brauchler’s decision” before deciding whether to enter the race himself.
“I’ve spent the past week meeting with a number of people in Denver,” he said, adding that he anticipates “having a decision by the first of next week.” “Michael Bennet’s numbers look worse than Mark Udall’s did a year out,” he said. “I see that as an opportunity to have two Republican Senators from Colorado.”
———-
After State Sen. Ray Scott’s name was floated on Facebook as a possible candidate to take on Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Justin Everett of Littleton stood up for his guy, Sen. Tim Neville.
“I don’t see anyone beating Tim in the primary, and I don’t see Ray as a threat,” wrote Everett. “Especially because [Jerry] Sonnenberg will probably get in as well, and they’d probably be competing with each other for the rural vote.”
To which, Ray Scott replied, “Tunnel vision only applies when you’re in a tunnel.”
Everett then wrote: “Reality based on 20 years political experience from being paid staff on state-wide campaigns, tight with consultant class, to doing high dollar fundraising for the RNC [Republican National Committee]. I got creds.”
“I’m friends with Ray and Jerry, but the fact is, this is a battle. If you are going to take on Michael Bennet, you have to have a proven candidate,” Everett told me when asked about the Facebook post.
But how does he know Sonnenberg is even likely to run?
“I call it the rule of three. I’ve heard from three people that Jerry flat-out said he would run,” said Everett, adding that the three people are from different groups.
As for Scott, Everett says he’s heard from other sources that Scott is serious about the race, and Everett points to the fact that Scott himself “chimed in” during the Facebook exchange as further confirmation of this.
Scott did not return a call for comment. I’ll update this blog post if he does. [I spoke with Sonnenberg after posting this blog. See update above.]
In response to a Facebook commenter who called Ray a “good candidate,” Everett wrote: “Performance matters. Ray hasn’t raised money from anyone or PACS. Tim has… My horse [Neville] knows how to win a race and is battle tested. Ray has never had a competitive race. Tim Neville, no better horse out there.”
Everett told me Neville can win based on the “Ken Buck Model of 2010 when he beat Jane Norton.” Buck went on to nearly defeat Bennet in the general, despite mistakes by national Republicans, he told me.
“There’s a path for victory for Tim, not only in the primary, but in the general,” said Everett, adding that Buck was way outspent by Norton and still won.
“Tim is smart enough to get good people behind him and raise money,” continued Everett. “He knows how to do direct mail, micro-targeting, voter ID. They know how to run campaigns, and they’ve been successful in primaries. He’ll work his butt off. He’s authentic. He’s in an excellent position to win the primary. Is this a battle Republicans want to fight? Or should they coalesce around Tim?”
In addition to Neville, businessman Robert Blaha, El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn and former Parker mayor Greg Lopez have already announced their intention to seek the GOP spot against Bennet. Attorney Dan Caplis is “very serious” about a run, and Larimer County Sheriff Justin Smith is thinking about entering the race.
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It sounds like Rep. Everett is attempting to scare everyone else out of the senate race to clear the road to the Republican nomination for Sen. Neville. The basis for his opinion appears to be his self proclaimed campaign credentials from pervious efforts he was involved in in past election cycles; but apparently he hasn't been able to get by the old military adage that often times generals make the mistake of "preparing to fight the last war." He asserts that Sen. Neville can win by using the "Ken Buck Model of 2010" which is doubly wrong because that campaign model lost in 2010. So why in the world would he suggest Sen. Neville model his campaign on Mr. Buck's 2010 effort? And by the way Rep. Neville, the mistakes made in the 2010 campaign do not rest at the feet of the RNC. They were made by Mr. Buck and his campaign.
Back to 2016. Next year won't be 2010. Anyone, on either side of the race, needs to think in terms of next year, not 2010.
In fairness to Rep. Everett, the "2010 model" is probably better than the "2008 model" or the "2004 model."
The idea that Neville is better than Sonnenberg or Scott reminds me of the old joke about Alabama's state motto: Thank God for Mississippi!
Whatever Justin Everett is smokin', I want to get me some. Seems like pretty potent stuff.
Yeah, Neville knows how to raise money from Dudley Brown and his gun group. Neville also is an authoritarian religionist. I'd think that either Sonnenberg or Scott would be a stronger candidate, in part because of one being from the Eastern Plains and the other from the Western Slope.
Exactly. Additionally, if what is being said about Dudley these days in those smoke filled rooms is true, Neville would be wise to separate himself from RMGO. We know that won't happen though.
Ray Scott?
Thanks. I needed a good laugh today.
Ray Scott?
Makes sense! Sonnenberg already gets big subsidy checks from the feds, he might as well get his salary from them too.
I like Jerry personally but have had no shortage of disappointments with him politically. Being from Sterling/Logan County he knows better than to spout his anti-renewable bullshit that he offered up so freely at the capitol. That might play well with the rural Farm Bureau/REA crowd – but couldn't be any more out-of-sync with reality (particularly his local constituents who have benefited from the billion-dollar-plus wind farm investment on the Peetz Table – a direct result of the dreaded mandates he so loathes). That said, Cory did CD4 a disservice when he coronated Buck for the seat and elbowed Jerry out. While their voting record would probably have been identical, at least Jerry can yuck up a room with his humor.
If he would be lucky enough to tap someone like Tracee Bentley to head up his campaign, I wouldn't dismiss him as a viable primary candidate.