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June 14, 2009 05:59 AM UTC
48 Comments
from Al Arabiya
Rafsanjani is one of the richest and most powerful people in Iran. Either he’s being cut out (and so quite before being fired) or he sees that this is going to lead to a revolution and he’s placing his bet with those who want to overturn the system.
Either way, this is a clear sign that this is not going to settle down quietly. And based on what happened in both the Phillipenes and Afghanistan, this is a very good bad sign for the existing government.
More from Al Arabiya
This is a clear sign that the government is not in clear control of things. If the protests can be easily handled it’s better to have the press there. But if the shit may hit the fan, then you want no witnesses.
Interesting note, the Daily Show has Jason Jones there. Wonder if he’ll be reporting Monday.
Nothing on their home page about Iran. I understand it makes no sense for them to report on it themselves, but they should be bringing in wire stories, listing blogs that have up to date news, etc.
Much like in our last election, where the youth as a whole moved to the liberal side of politics, the youth in Iran may be turning away from the hard-liners and theocrats currently running the country.
Eastern Europe has seen similar movements take place, such as the Orange Revolution.
The only questions this brings to mind are: 1. How far is Iran’s ruling group willing to allow this to escalate?
2. How will they respond, with force or concessions?
3. To what end will this lead?
The Chinese cracked down in Tiananmen Square. The Orange Revolution brought new leadership to power. I think the Iranian government as we know it could be over.
David, you are the main reason that I continue to frequent this site.
I also like to read Congressman Polis’s posts.
I’m not surprised that results were in question. I’m not surprised that the “Government” won.
It’s not who votes that wins. It is how they are counted.
I feel for the people of Iran that desire a more moderate government.
Via HuffPo from Andrew Sullivan we have:
Sanei is major. This splits who the clerics support and means Ahmadinejad no longer has clear theocratic support. In a theocracy, this opens it up.
or is it Sanei and a few others against the establishment? In any case am puzzled that you would say “And in 6 months we will see them as a clear dictatorship or they will be a true democracy.”
Your insistence on only these two possible outcomes ( nothing between dictatorship and “true” democracy) and this time frame is based on…?
But I don’t think there is any way we will see the status quo in 6 months. This has gotten too big. They are in a state of two groups both trying to control the government – one will win.
As long as it remains a theocratic system, with clerics all powerful, Iran will never be a true democracy.
What has happened in numerous countries that had partial democracy is that the powers at the top have found themselves unable to stop it when people demand the full thing. Taiwan, South Korea, much of South America.
You’re right that it is not at present a true democracy. But it clearly has a significant democratic component and a people who have grown to demand that their votes be counted.
does not lie in the presidency but with the Guardian Council. How it weighs in on this is what counts.
from The Independent
This is just one street in Isfahan. And it looks like it’s not that major of a street. First look at the number of police they have in this one spot. And then 30 seconds it it becomes clear – the police are retreating from the crowds.
The government is not presently in clear control.
h/t to NY Times The Lede (which is doing an outstanding job – there is hope for the MSM).
from The Washington Note
This is part of my point that Iran is partially a democracy already. Because under the democratic pieces already in place have grown expectations on the part of the populace and the rulers are discovering that they are constrained by the will of the people.
The police charge in. The crowds pulls back a bit but then counter-attacks. Afterwards you see police motorcycles on fire and then the most amazing part.
There are 2 police officers captured by the crowd and they look pretty beat up. But they are then being protected by people there and moved to the side for safety.
I would not be surprised to see the police pull back and refuse to fight the crowds in the near future. And if that happens then a change in the government is very likely.
posted from the Independent the supposedly very credible Iranian claiming that the figures are correct, that huge majorities in some major cities do support Ahmadinejad. So which is it, Dave? The government about to fall due to pressure or a majority getting the result they wanted? Are these retreating police indicative of the power of the majority or are these scenes from areas where opposition is particularly prevalent? Sounds like the people of Tabriz and Mashad got what they wanted. If the source for that is credible. Is he? How do we know?
If all this means a civil war or insurrection is brewing and the election figures are accurate who is more likely to come out on top? How do we know whether they are or not?
Seems as though the truth of the situation is way too confused for arm chair observers or even Iranian observers connected to one group of insiders or another. I’m guessing those who think they have this figured out better think again. Wouldn’t be making any sweeping predictions about what it’s going to look like six months from now.
What matters now is what happens in the streets. And if the Mousavi protesters control the streets and the police step back, then they have a good shot at gaining control.
about some “very credible Iranian” saying those figures are correct. This is nothing more than they-are-correct-because-I-say-so.
85 % of the electorate shows up to overwhelmingly vote for more of the same with Ahmadinejad ? Mousavi loses to Ahmadinejad in his own home district ? And the majority of those voters for Ahmadinejad are from large cities, and they are primarily women and young people ? None of the past voting patterns from previous elections in Iran suggest that.
All of the ballots are hand counted one hour after the polls close ?
Give me a break. I call bullshit.
When I wrote my comment I hadn’t heard some of those nuggets like Mousavi and another candidate losing in their home districts, having done very well in them last election. Still wouldn’t be placing any bets on the outcome. Wonder what the next couple of days will bring. Pretty interesting. Bet the Ayatollas have a much better minute to minute grasp of what’s happening and will make their decisions accordingly.
Glad Obama is keeping rhetoric low key. Wouldn’t help to give them an excuse to paint the protestors as carrying America’s water or raise the specter of American interference. Not a time for saber rattling. Sure the right will say Obama is being weak.
This is all from Huffington Post where I’m pulling the key parts. Looking at both the protestor actions and the government response, I think it’s accurate to say Iran is facing a coup and who wins will be decided in the streets.
Reports include (no blockquote used):
There is report that a basiji center in Northern Tehran around Tajrish has been captured by the protesters. This would potentially mean weapons in hands of protesters.
From @iranelection09: “URGENT JUST IN, there are TANKS in front of the interior ministry of tehran in valiasr st. & fatemi cross CAREFUL”
From @tehranbureau: “basij and security forces had fought for hours to subdue the people… My friends who work in the tehran hospitals said the number of injured was staggering”
From @winston80: “heavy clashes in Shiraz (southern Iran) reported. ppl attacking police”
In the last hour, there has been a sharp spike in the number of (unconfirmed) reports about intensified violence
from ABC’s Lara Setrakian on Twitter: “Rezaei, the conservative candidate and fmr head of Revolutionary Guards, apparently publishes open letter strongly contesting iran election.” …”If the former head of Revolutionary Guards is saying it’s illegitimate, it’s definitely a crack in the armor because even if he’s not in, his former staff are still there.”
…reports that the rooftops of nighttime Tehran are filled with people shouting ‘Allah O Akbar’ in protest of the government and election results. The last time he remembers this happening is in 1979 during the Revolution. Says the sound of tens of thousands on the rooftops is deafening right now.”
Iran is jamming all incoming satellite feeds which hackers have taken down Ahmadinejad’s website and are now targeting Khamenei’s site.
I have been wondering why Al-Jazerra and Al-Arabiya have been so low key on the whole thing. One theory via Andrew Sullivan is
It’s very true that the middle east governments are unanamous in their opposition to people power (with the exception of Lebanon).
Using the revolts in Eastern Europe and former parts of the USSR is not a good guide because they were all clearly controlled by Russia and as such they were breaking free of a foreign force. Different situation.
Instead we should look to countries like South Korea and China where increased wealth without the associated political modernization lead to revolts. In China it was put down (barely). But in South Korea they tried to put it down and failed.
A country that shoots it’s future is a country with no future. h/t Andrew Sullivan:
Change_for_Iran
Student killed by police (warning gruesome)
photos of school attack (warning gruesome)
plainclothes police using knives in the street
from HuffPo
Look closely at the video – it looks like traffic cops are helping cars get through the crowd and their our soldiers in the crowd. If that is the case then the government there is not opposing the crowds at all.
From Tehran, from NYT. Not quote so optimistic as David…
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06…
Even Romania took 3 days to fall. And while the NY Times is providing some great reporting, I don’t think they, or anyone, knows how solid control is.
Keep in mind some very powerful people in Iran are supporting the uprising. This is still very much up in the air.
The NYT seems to be reporting the army and Revolutionary Guards are behind Ahmadinejad. Hadn’t seen that angle reported earlier.
At best, “the situation bears monitoring,” as one analyst said earlier.
There are reports of tanks in front of the interior ministry but aside from that I haven’t seen either even mentioned. I think both have decided to stay out of it, at least for now.
As long as you are admitting this is all still very much up in the air, I’m happy to agree. Here’s something very interesting on a new development, Ayatollah Khomeini calling for an investigation and the various takes on it. Giving in to pressure? Real chance for change in results because he’s seeing writing on the wall? Just to buy time? To do a white wash to put an end to the controversy? Up in the air indeed.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
Ahmadinejad has cancelled, without explanation or notice, his planned trip to Russia today.
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glaring absence of reporting on this angle.
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1. Establish a new gmail account.
2. Add that address on your Profile page on this site
3. Monitor for incoming mail of interest.
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I read your post 3 times before I got it. Thick as a brick.
Gimme half an hour.
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…been following this on BBC and Telegraaf websites since yesterday. Mixed in with the usual photos is a lot of pics of protesters with “Down with US/UK” signs.
They’re probably Ahmadinejad supporters – and they’ll try and link the anti-government protesters to the US and UK, and (as things evolve) EU countries.
That will make it easier to drum up support from the rest of the country, if all the gov’t is doing is “crushing the Western Crusader Stooges.”
IF the CIA is somewhat smart, they stay out of the way of this and let whatever opposition groups they’ve funded/trained do all the work.
BTW, wearing Green today to show my Solidarity for the protesters. Yes, it’s a bit Boulder, but if one person asks, then I’ll be happy.
covered itself in glory staying on top of things in this part of the world lately, have they? I’m betting any complicated CIA plot theories would be giving them way more credit than they deserve.
1: Promoted by CIA: Everything that happens in the world is the result of clever maneuvers by the CIA.
2: (1) laced with Facts: Artifact of Cold War, still trying where they used to succeed–largely via assassination and pouring BigBucks into disillusioned, demented militarists–but they’ve largely lost their touch since their raison d’etre, the USSR, disappeared. Now they are more like a branch of the military, operating drones over northern Pak, wondering why those Gitmo detainees still refuse to give up information, etc. etc. Not relevant to Iran at present.
It’s so easy to dismiss the CIA and other US Intelligence Agencies as lumbering idiots or dark-cloaked instruments of evil. There may even be a grain of truth in some of it, esp in light of the last Presidency.
But don’t – it’s an insult to the non-political appointees who work there, and to the honest-to-goodness people who volunteered to do a job a lot of others wouldn’t.
The CIA does do things other than the Cold War Movie stuff you’ve spouted in your post. I’m willing to guess they’ve been busy in Iran the last few years, doing things like getting the opposition organized thru Facebook and the web (much like what’s happened in Egypt.)
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Of course you don’t, but you almost said that.
I have personal knowledge that, in early 2003, the CIA had exactly Zero spies in Iraq (not counting Kurdish regions.)
The CIA does some good work, like debunking everything George Bush, Dick Cheney and Colin Powell said were indications of Saddam’s WMD programs. But with brown-noser George Tenet muzzling this analysis, and nobody from the CIA willing to go to jail for contradicting him, the CIA did nothing to protect American interests in the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq for partisan political purposes.
That’s the challenge of leadership, and not one person in the entire agency rose to the challenge. If they all kow-tow to the political leadership, why not disband the entire agency ? Not one person in the CIA lived up to their oath of office, supporting and defending the Constitution and all that.
Nor did the flag officers of the DOD acquit themselves well.
Nor did the State Department.
Nor did the Congress.
I hate the politics of John K. Singlaub. But he had the cojones to fall on his sword as a matter of principle when he thought President Carter was hurting our national security.
The following is my list of all senior government officials who have done their duty concerning the Iraq War:
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Do I know what the hell is going on inside Iran? No.
But I do know whatever the spooks are doing, they are NOT unleashing a secret squad of Steven Segal look-alikes to go around Tehran and assassinate key senior gov’t officials.
Or sending another bunch of spooks to sabotage Iranian armored vehicles before they can leave their motor pools.
Or send another bunch to shut down the telecommunications infrastructure to prevent the government from broadcasting propaganda.
Just because they didn’t have any human intel assets in the country in 2003 doesn’t mean they haven’t been added since.
JO is postulating that either the CIA is a clueless bumbling giant with no interest (or assets) in Iran, or they’ve transported an army of Cold War-era assassin and saboteurs into Iran to kill, maim and destroy everyone in the government.
I’m saying I’m sure it’s not either choice, and the assets that are there are involved in much different operations, that will, assist with the revolution if it starts.
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why did the CIA ever let him leave ?
Oh, right. I remember now.
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Prez Obama is happy with the performance of the CIA.
Prez Obama gets daily CIA briefings
Panette has concluded with great analysis that VP Cheney is hoping for a terrorist attack on the U.S.
When questioned Veep Biden had no conclusion on Cheney’s motives, but he does know the location of the secret location.
But my bet is on the Guardian Council picking a winning side. Probably in a situation where the winner is becoming clear, they will then go that direction in order to maintain their power. The last thing the theocrats want to do is lose power.
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Only 100,000 showed up this morning in Tehran, around 1% of the city’s population.
http://www.voanews.com/english…
Imagine if the protests went ahead as scheduled.
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there are only unconfirmed reports of one protester being shot and killed in Tehran.
If true, this means at least one more day of protests. Under Muslim (and Jewish) custom, the dead must be buried almost immediately.
The dead protester’s funeral will be tomorrow.
It will draw more protesters. If the numbers swell, watch out. If few attend the funeral, this movement may be over.
David remarked earlier that the Chow-chess-queues (phoenetic) survived 2 days of riots in the streets of Bucharest unscathed. It took until a third day of riots/ protests before the Bastille was stormed and heads were separated from shoulders.
One commentator with expertise on Iran speculated that it would take two weeks of daily protests of massive scale in order to bring down the current government in Iran.
So it all depends on how much they love their TV.
I noted in the videos posted above that dozens of young people were recording the protests with cell phone cameras.
The fundamentalist government might have been better off shutting off all of the cell phone towers yesterday, but doing it today might be too little, too late.
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WaPo reports that the Iranian government turned off the cell phone networks Saturday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…
same article:
Not exactly an attempt at reconciliation.
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is going to be a bloody day in Iran. I for one am thinking about all of the young people there who are sick and tired of it all and desperately want change, that are willing to risk life and limb for it. I am thinking about the young Iranian women who are standing in the streets calling to the young men not to run when the riot police come.
I feel for the guy who was beaten with clubs and chains today and crawled under a stairwell sobbing…
I feel for the guy who got beaten to a pulp by plainclothes police for attempting to protect a 14 year old girl…
I feel for what is probably a handful of Iranians that died in riots today…
I feel for the hospital workers who are getting slammed right now…
Iran is thousands of miles away, and I’ve never been there, but I really can’t stop thinking about the Iranian people today. I am fascinated and saddened at the same time at a situation that is moving so quickly. They are fighting for something we are lucky enough to take for granted. I just hope the level of human suffering is kept to a minimum.
Sorry to be so maudlin. Thank your lucky stars you have the priviledge to live in the greatest country in the world Polsters.
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
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