August 09, 2009 06:40 PM UTC

Beauprez Destabilizing GOP Senate Primary?

• 14 Comments
• by: Colorado Pols

The Colorado Statesman reported Friday:

Beauprez told The Statesman in February that he’d probably have to decide by this summer if he were to seriously consider getting into the U.S. Senate race.

“I changed my mind about the date,” he admitted a few days ago.

“I thought the (political) environment was very murky and unclear at the time.”

But polling numbers are changing on the Democratic side, Beauprez suggested. “Obama’s taking a hit” and the spill over effect could make newcomer Bennet more vulnerable.

“There’s a lack of a clear Republican consensus candidate.”

After a throwaway line or two about how possible opponent Michael Bennet won’t “be completely comfortable at the Cow Palace in Lamar,” Beauprez offers an explanation for what happened in 2006–the disastrous gubernatorial campaign many observers believed marked the end of his political career, often cited as the “worst campaign in Colorado history.”

I think if I were to do it again, I would try very, very hard to talk about issues with people. Frankly, I was told in my last campaign that policy doesn’t mean anything to anybody, and we don’t want to focus on that. [Pols emphasis] We just need to get you out there face to face with Bill Ritter, and people will see the dramatic difference. It didn’t work. So I would very much like to take an agenda, a message to folks that this is going to make a difference in their lives – and why…

Well, to the extent that Beauprez seemed to have nothing to talk about in 2006, and about every time he did open his mouth it turned into a printed apology or embarrassing backpedal…yeah. We can agree that he was probably given good advice to keep his mouth shut. And if you’re having trouble imagining how it would go much better in a statewide race next year, you’re not alone.

But enough about Beauprez. This really isn’t about Beauprez. Beauprez’s threats to wade into the GOP Senate primary are not because he is some kind of savior with ‘elder statesman’ cachet to change the game with. Beauprez is quick to note in every press availability since rumors of his candidacy intensified last week what the real reason for all of this discussion is: grave doubts about the ability of the two present candidates, Ryan Frazier and Ken Buck, to beat Bennet next year.

The doubts about Frazier and Buck appear to be shared by national Republican strategists, as well as funders given the paltry numbers they put up last quarter. It’s not a reflection of any particular strength appointed Sen. Michael Bennet has shown, though we don’t think he’s doing badly for himself in the Senate setting up for next year. It’s the simple fact that the current challengers just don’t seem like serious contenders, in terms of notoriety, gravitas, or ability to raise funds.

As this failure to recruit qualified challengers becomes increasingly apparent, in comes Beauprez–sort of, remember that for all his willingness to trash the other Republican Senate candidates in print, true to “Both Ways Bob” form he hasn’t actually committed to running. But he does have a name people know (for good or ill) and he could, if he really felt like it, self-fund his campaign.

The thing is, Beauprez doesn’t know if this is going to work. What we hear is that he is calling political operatives all over the state trying to get a staff together–without much luck being the word in some circles, he may have to go out of state to get qualified people. According to the Statesman, he’s sworn off the losers from his 2006 campaign like the singularly bumbling John Marshall. But as long as he is threatening to run, there will be some campaign professionals who might otherwise go to work for one of the other candidates standing by to ‘see what happens.’ The same is true, with much greater long-term consequences, for a number of large donors both in and out of state.

Bottom line: as long as Beauprez looms over the GOP Senate primary he’s going to hobble the current candidates, possibly sealing their fate. But if Beauprez gets in and wins the primary, is the GOP’s fate then sealed too? Experience being any guide at all…