May 29, 2013 08:30 AM UTC

The Case for Tom Tancredo as the GOP Nominee (No, Really)

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• by: Colorado Pols

Over the weekend, the editorial board of the Denver Post weighed in on the Gubernatorial candidacy of Republican Tom Tancredo, who surprised many last week by throwing his hat in the ring for 2014. And what did the Post have to say? Well, they're about as excited for another Tancredo candidacy as a kid who just learned he'll be going to summer school:

We realize hope springs eternal, but Tancredo represents qualities that Republicans would do well to avoid in the 2014 statewide races if they want to have a shot at success. He's right-wing as opposed to conservative, obsessive on immigration at a time when the GOP needs to cultivate more Latino voters, and prone to colorful but divisive statements.

Tancredo received 36 percent of the vote in 2010 while running as a third-party candidate. And while that was good enough for second place behind John Hickenlooper, Tancredo would still have been defeated even if he'd garnered every vote cast for Dan Maes, the Republican standard bearer who finished third.

To have a vibrant two-party system in Colorado, Republicans need to field candidates with broader appeal than Tancredo. [Pols emphasis]

We certainly don't disagree with that assessment of Tancredo as the GOP's man at the top of the 2014 ticket, but there are two important points to consider when thinking about Tancredo as the potential Republican nominee for Governor…both of which help make the argument that maybe Tancredo is the best GOP candidate for 2014:

1. 1. Republicans don't have a candidate with broader appeal than Tancredo. Even if the GOP could find a candidate with a broad appeal, the Tea Party's entrenched position in Colorado all but guarantees that such a candidate would never make it out of a Republican primary. If the subject of Tancredo comes up and friends or neighbors start a joke with, "Is this really the best they can do?" The answer is probably, "Yes."
    
2. 2. Republicans cannot beat Democrat John Hickenlooper in 2014 — and certainly not with the sorry state of the GOP bench. Everyone, from Republican Party officials to major donors to potential candidates, knows that they can't beat Hickenlooper in 2014 barring some sort of scandal of epic proportion (and no, angry gun people, supporting gun safety measures does not qualify). There are some years where failing to come up with a decent candidate really is an unfortunate event (such as Republicans running Bob Schaffer for an open Senate seat in 2008), but this is not one of those situations. The GOP isn't "missing an opportunity" if they don't mount a serious challenge to Hickenlooper because there really is no great opportunity to discuss.

Now, back to the premise of this here blog post: The Case for Tom Tancredo as the GOP nominee. All things considered, Tancredo may actually be a decent choice for Republicans in 2014. Let's lay this out in sections, shall we?

Tancredo Has Pretty Good Name ID
For Republicans, the great tragedy of Dan Maes in 2010 was not that he lost the race for governor, but that he was so unknown and so ridiculous as a candidate that he provided almost no bump for down-ticket Republicans. Many voters take time to cast a ballot in order to vote for their favorite candidates at the top of the ticket; while they are there, they go ahead and fill out the rest of the ballot, usually choosing a 'D' or an 'R' because they don't know squat about the lower-tier races. Republicans didn't get this benefit in 2010 because a) Maes was a complete unknown, and b) even the most ill-informed voter understood that they had a better chance at winning Powerball than Maes had at being governor.

While informed voters know that Tancredo has little chance in 2014, the average Republican voter probably won't, and they'll recognize his name enough to at least make more of an effort to cast a ballot. Tancredo won't be governor, but he might help a few legislative candidates pick up an extra couple of points that could be the difference in a tight race.

He May Be a Jackass, but He's a KNOWN Jackass
Over the years Tancredo has said more than his fair share of inflammatory, irresponsible, and flat-out ridiculous statements. Suggest that President Obama is aligned with al-Qaida? Check. Bomb Mecca? Check. Rendering Ken Buck speechless? Yup.

Tancredo has been active in Colorado politics for decades, and he's been uttering stupid statements from day one. Should Tancredo suggest deporting all illegal immigrants via a giant tube-like waterslide, everyone will roll their eyes and chuckle, and then go back to ignoring the Tanc. This isn't to say that Tancredo will get away with saying awful things — it's almost the opposite, frankly, because it just makes him even more of a ridiculous carnival sideshow than he already is. But if someone like State Sen. Greg Brophy were to run for governor and say something equally stupid, the response would quickly rise to a fever pitch because Brophy is more of an unknown figure whose viewpoints are fresher "news." That kind of media coverage quickly becomes damaging for other Republican candidates, who are asked whether they support what Brophy said. Tancredo can be shrugged off, more or less, until he says something both absurd and unusual (unusual relative to Tancredo's past comments, of course).

If You Can't Win, Just Don't Make Things Worse
For Republicans, the 2014 gubernatorial race is sort of like a first date — sure, you'd like to get a kiss at the end of the night, but as long as you don't fart in the car on the way back from the restaurant, you'll probably get another date. This is the true beauty of a Tancredo candidacy, at least from the Republican Party perspective: He may be their best option for getting through 2014 without another breakdown that somebody needs to fix before the GOP can be competitive again. In 2010, Maes (and before him, Scott McInnis) did more than just lose an election — they severely tarnished the Republican "brand" through malfeasance and simple ridiculousness. If Republicans are ever going to win another top-ticket race in Colorado, they've got to stop shooting themselves in their collective feet.

The ideal scenario for Republicans would be to run someone new and young and likable, to build their name ID for a more realistic shot at winning in a later election cycle. But as we've already discussed, they don't have such a candidate. Even if they did, this plan would only work if that person weren't first dragged through the Tea Party nonsense machine en route to the General Election.

What do Republicans have with Tancredo instead? A guy who can't win, running against a Democrat they couldn't beat anyway. Worst-case scenario, Tancredo says some stupid Tancredo stuff and pisses off the same people who already don't like him, followed by a pummeling at the polls. Best-case scenario? Tancredo doesn't say as much stupid Tancredo stuff and doesn't anger quite so many people, followed by a pummeling at the polls. Sure, it's not the greatest message to massage for Republican voters, but when life gives you lemons…pucker up.

Of course, there's still that Scott Gessler thing…