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June 13, 2013 07:52 AM UTC

Quinnipiac: Hickenlooper, Thou Art Mortal

  • 27 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE #2: With a deeper look at the poll, we find an interesting takeaway.

—–

UPDATE: A reader points out, for what it's worth, the partisan breakdown of this poll's respondents: Democrats 24%, Republicans 27%, unaffiliated 42%, other 7%–certainly a debatable "cross-section" of Colorado voters. Kevin Ingham of Strategies 360, a pollster we've turned to frequently in this space for knowledge, has serious questions about the sampling for the poll.

We're more inclined to heed the warnings we've outlined below, even with some methodological quibbles.

—–

The much-anticipated release on a new poll from Quinnipiac University shows an early picture of the 2014 gubernatorial race–in the abstract, with plenty for incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper to worry about:

Colorado voters say 69 – 24 percent that the death penalty should stay on the books and not be replaced by life in prison with no chance of parole, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. At the same time, Gov. John Hickenlooper finds himself running neck and neck with possible challengers in the 2014 governor's race. 

Voters disapprove 67 – 27 percent of Gov. Hickenlooper's decision to grant convicted murderer Nathan Dunlap a reprieve, and 74 percent say the death penalty will be "very important" or "somewhat important" in their vote for governor next year, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds…

At this point, the 2014 Colorado governor's race is too close to call, with 42 percent for Democratic Gov. Hickenlooper and 41 percent for former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, a possible Republican challenger. 

In other possible matchups, Hickenlooper gets 42 percent to 40 percent for Secretary of State Scott Gessler, and gets 43 percent to 37 percent for State Sen. Greg Brophy. 

By a slim 47 – 43 percent margin, Colorado voters approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing. Voters are divided 45 – 44 percent on whether he deserves reelection. Voters also are divided in their opinion of the governor, with 45 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable.

There are a few important points to make about this poll before anyone commences panicking (or celebrating as the case may be).  First and foremost, it's so early that it's not even really fair to call this a poll for the 2014 election cycle–what this survey mostly reflects is the public impression of a recent news event, Hickenlooper's decision to grant a temporary reprieve to convicted murderer Nathan Dunlap. In addition, this is a foreseeable product of Hickenlooper's major investment of political capital in the legislative agenda passed into law by the Assembly's Democratic majority. Many important political questions, such as the final disposition of the gun safety bills that passed this year and the fate of a major education funding ballot initiative, are as yet unresolved. These factors are going to resolve and settle long before anybody votes in an election 17 months from now.

And whatever the early polls say, our assessment of Hickenlooper's potential challengers hasn't changed.

With that said, no one can disagree that this year's epic political battles have taken their toll on Gov. Hickenlooper's once-stratospheric popularity. According to Quinnipiac, the General Assembly is fully underwater in terms of favorability, with 49% disapproving of their performance to 36% in favor. What these numbers demonstrate is the need for Democrats to get serious about defending and validating the ambitious legislative agenda passed into law this year. Democrats cannot assume that conviction of being on the long-term "right side of history," which powered them through the session, will translate into electoral success without the effort required to defend and educate the public about what they accomplished. They haven't done that, and arguably here is the result.

In case you didn't already know this, you can't take anything for granted in politics.

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27 thoughts on “Quinnipiac: Hickenlooper, Thou Art Mortal”

  1. Hahahahaha on Hick for being such a turd.  Can't make a decision on anything and now people are noticing.  Grow a pair Hick.  Take a stand.  But I know you're not capable of that.  That's why this swing voter will not be a vote in your column next year.  Dumb ass.

  2. Don't suppose anyone would like to take a look at the political breakdown?

    Dems 24%

    Reps 27%

    Unaf 42%

    Other/unk 7%

     

    Ugh.  What is it with these people.  Probably an outlier.  But at least the "Republicans" will have something to give them hope.

    1. Sounds exctly like the Chris Romer for Mayor spinmeisters.  They nitpicked every poll saying it had too much of this and too little of that.  Instead of being honest and realizing their campaign was in trouble they spun tales about how it was the polls not they who were wrong. We saw how that turned out.

      Quinnipac is respected for its accuracy.  

      1. It is recognized as tilting right just as PPP is recognized as tipping left. PPP certainly turned out to be more accurate in 2012.

        The sampling doesn't conform to most accepted estimates of party breakdown.

        It's not news that Hick has pissed a lot of people off. He's still going to be re-elected.

  4. The Dems spent huge amounts of political capital getting their agenda through the legislature past session. Whether you agree with that agenda or not, the Republicans will hammer home the theme the Dems overspent. I see that as a potentially very effective strategy in 2014 (unless Republicans shoot themselves in the foot again, which given their track record, is not inconceivable).

  5. It looks like Democrats [even with the demographic breakdown of the poll] win with anyone with a college education, those making <$50k, Denver, Boulder, Jefferson and Arapahoe County and Colorado Hispanics.  It looks like the Republicans generally get non-college educated residents, all the non-Hispanics and those making >$100k and the 'rest of the state'. 

    Those odds don't make me terribly uncomfortable.

    As to the question of 'do you think the death penalty is admistered fairly?' – how in the world  would the average person know the truth to that answer?  Because they 'feel' it? Particulary disapponted in the breakdown of Catholics who think we ought to be executing people. If nothing else, we Catholics love us a 'buffet' of choices on who should get to live and who doesn't.  The vast majority of my pro-life friends can't stand it that we aren't executing inmates.  If there was any one result from this poll that saddens me – it's that one. 

     

  6. This poll is good if it keeps Hick from getting overconfident about 2014.

    On the otherhand, if it gets the GOP's hopes up, encouraging more suckers, er, candidates, to jump into the primary in a battle of the nuttiest ideas to campaign on, that'll be good too.

    1. This seems to me to be exactly the kind of poll that pushes Hickenfracker further to right (… hard to believe that's even possible, but …)!

      Frackenfurter knows that the usual suspects and team cheerleaders won't be able to seriously challenge him from the left …  His vulnerabililies lay to his right — that's where he'll be shoring up.  (As Craig would note, this man will not ever be considered for a mention in any "Profiles of Courage" sequel …)

      Hold on, progressives, it's  gonna be a bumpy ride from here on out ….

      1. I'm not sure about that.  The three issues that are currently boiling are his support for supressing local control over fracking and gun safety legislation, and now his punting on the death penalty.

        This poll only addressed the latter, and I for one, have a hard time believing there is a 3-1 majority in Colorado certain that the death penalty is a good way to spend our public safety dollars.  Personally, I believe the state does have the right to take a criminal's life if due process is followed.  However, as a practical matter, I think it's ridiculous that we spend decades and millions of dollars in that pursuit.

        The Aurora theater killer could be sitting in SuperMax by now if only George Brauchler had accepted his guilty plea, instead of gunning for the death penalty yet again.

        But on the other issues, Fracking will hurt Hick on the left, but not so much elsewhere.  And the GOP can harp on the gun safety legislation all they want — it is strongly supported across the spectrum, and certainly by the core of Hick's likely supporters across the same spectrum.

        I say bring on Gessler and Tancredo.  They'll definitely try to out-crazy each other on women's issues and immigration.

        2. Fracking is one of those issues that won't break on partisan lines, but geographical ones. If you live in a neighborhood dealing with fracking, your political affiliation probably doesn't make you feel better about it.

          1. The issue is actually unifying people where brewing…hippies and Tea Partiers in the North Fork; ranchers and mountain bikers in Thompson Divide area.  But as far as politicians go, there is still a divide between parties. 

          2. And the more bipartisan the upswelling of support for local control over fracking — the better.  Hick would probably listen to that, finally.

            He'll never be "Mr. Clean Energy" by any means, but he's smart enough to compromise when the pressure is coming from a decent majority of voters across the spectrum.

  7. When pollsters have a big lump of unaffiliateds without some further partisan leanings reported I don’t put too much faith in the findings. Colorado has relatively few truly swinging unaffiliateds and most remain faithful to a major party.

    Still, Hick’s campaign is probably happy with a little early indication of a competitive race- with a Senate race and Romanoff fundraising from Dems statewide it couldn’t have been fun trying to draw in donors for an apparent blowout.

  8. Perhaps his popularity will nose dive further or this is the nadir of his discontent.  We have a long ways to go before November 2014.  If the reforms and intiatives from this last session are fruitful and the state economy is better than he can point to his leadership as one of the contributing factors in these improved conditions.  If the state legislature in the next session bails him out by repealing the death penalty than it takes the Dunlap controversy off the table and he can be seen as a compasionate person who was ahead of his time and sparked a real debate on the issue.

    He has disillusioned detractors among Democrats over his Fracking positions but on other issues like civil unions, gun regulations, climate change and sustainable energy policies  he is doing the job he was elected to do.

    I'm sure Arapajoke will pronounce his doom soon and loudly proclaim that Hickenlooper can never recover but we're a long ways out and if he has any political talent and isn't just a wall flower businessman then it should come out and his 2nd campaign should be focused on the issues he thinks need to be addressed in his 2nd term.  Not a perfect person but I think he works for the good of the state.

  9. Hick has had problems transitioning from all-Democratic Denver where there was no opposiiton to a State Capital that is becoming more polorized by the day.  He needs to engage, hands-on, and knock off  this rediculous new-age talk about how the State has to have a "conversation:" about the death penalty.  That''s no more realistic than little Ricky Santorum wanting to have a "conversation" about "contraception."  Some things can't be talked through — they have be pushed through by people taking a stand for something and getting "physical" with the opposition.  Not all men are of "good will."

    Despite all this, only in the fevered imagination of "Anti-Fracking Eric" — who wakes up with this natural gas / coal powered alarm clock, eats breakfast on an electric/gas stove (powered by coal and natural gas) in a home warmed or cooled with the same coal and natural gas, drives in his OPEC-fueled car  (or a sacred "electirc" i.e., a coal or natural gas car) to an anti-fracking rally and uses his cell phone powered by batteries mined in China under the most appaling of conditions — only in that idiot's fevered imagination — can "fracking" be an issue that sways an election. And it is not "fracking" they oppose — it is fossil fuel drilling  – but just like Goebbels, they understand the need to hide their real, impossibly unpopular intentions by different words, lies and scare tactics aimed at panicking the natives.

     Hick knows it is all balogney from anti-fossil fuel zealots who should be forced to hitchhike to their rallies by waiting for that wind or solar powered sedan to pick them up.  We'd tjhen be spared their silly outrage over fossil fuels.  Only the Uni-bomber can complain — with a straight face — about fracking and fossil fuels.  The rest of us live, work, play and vote on Planet Earth, fueled by something quite "natural" — fossil fuels.

      1.  they understand the need to hide their real, impossibly unpopular intentions by different words, lies and scare tactics aimed at panicking the natives.

        ya think?

    2. Actually, his early morning alarm clock is powered by a lot of electrons that aren't coming from natural gas.  And a recent German project that I recently visited demonstrates it's possible to install 2x the wind under normal design constraints, build in a 5% curtailment option, and significantly increase their wind penetration beyond a normal installation.  The Germans also have designed the tariffs in their system to bias the grid away from natural gas.  They are of the opinoin the natural gas is much too valuable to 'burn' – and in particular when you have a plethera of renewable options to displace it.  And yes, they are building a small handful of new coal plants – but they are literally sitting there as an 'insurance policy'.  We should be doing the same thing.  Every ton of coal in our mountains has a home regardless of whether we burn it in Colorado or not.  These old plants are demanding $100's of millions in upgrades to meet air standards – and they consume precious water we should be using for agriculture.  Twas a great technology in the 19th and 20th century.  We know better now.  We don't farm with horses any longer – we don't need to generate an electron in Colorado with coal.

      I'm not anti-natural gas, but I am pro-"let's do the smartest thing with it that keeps our economy strong for years".  And that equation should include transparency and a high environmental bar.  About two months ago Patty Limerick spoke to our Bighorn Fellowship Group about the NSF project she is moderating on fracking.  I'm sorry that my schedule has yet to allow me to participate in an event – but I found her remarks about the process enlightening. 

      And I do give the Governor kudo's for the things he has made possible: sensible gun legislation, civil unions, homeless veterans issues and renewable energy.  We still have a long way to go – but I think we can be assured that a Governor Tancredo or Maes would have made any of these advancements impossible.

       

  10. "powered by batteries mined in China under the most appaling of conditions"

    My heart goes out to those poor Chinese workers, slaving away in the hellish battery mines of the Shanxi province…..

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