June 13, 2013 07:52 AM UTC

Quinnipiac: Hickenlooper, Thou Art Mortal

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE #2: With a deeper look at the poll, we find an interesting takeaway.

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UPDATE: A reader points out, for what it's worth, the partisan breakdown of this poll's respondents: Democrats 24%, Republicans 27%, unaffiliated 42%, other 7%–certainly a debatable "cross-section" of Colorado voters. Kevin Ingham of Strategies 360, a pollster we've turned to frequently in this space for knowledge, has serious questions about the sampling for the poll.

We're more inclined to heed the warnings we've outlined below, even with some methodological quibbles.

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The much-anticipated release on a new poll from Quinnipiac University shows an early picture of the 2014 gubernatorial race–in the abstract, with plenty for incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper to worry about:

Colorado voters say 69 – 24 percent that the death penalty should stay on the books and not be replaced by life in prison with no chance of parole, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. At the same time, Gov. John Hickenlooper finds himself running neck and neck with possible challengers in the 2014 governor's race. 

Voters disapprove 67 – 27 percent of Gov. Hickenlooper's decision to grant convicted murderer Nathan Dunlap a reprieve, and 74 percent say the death penalty will be "very important" or "somewhat important" in their vote for governor next year, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds…

At this point, the 2014 Colorado governor's race is too close to call, with 42 percent for Democratic Gov. Hickenlooper and 41 percent for former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, a possible Republican challenger. 

In other possible matchups, Hickenlooper gets 42 percent to 40 percent for Secretary of State Scott Gessler, and gets 43 percent to 37 percent for State Sen. Greg Brophy. 

By a slim 47 – 43 percent margin, Colorado voters approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing. Voters are divided 45 – 44 percent on whether he deserves reelection. Voters also are divided in their opinion of the governor, with 45 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable.

There are a few important points to make about this poll before anyone commences panicking (or celebrating as the case may be).  First and foremost, it's so early that it's not even really fair to call this a poll for the 2014 election cycle–what this survey mostly reflects is the public impression of a recent news event, Hickenlooper's decision to grant a temporary reprieve to convicted murderer Nathan Dunlap. In addition, this is a foreseeable product of Hickenlooper's major investment of political capital in the legislative agenda passed into law by the Assembly's Democratic majority. Many important political questions, such as the final disposition of the gun safety bills that passed this year and the fate of a major education funding ballot initiative, are as yet unresolved. These factors are going to resolve and settle long before anybody votes in an election 17 months from now.

And whatever the early polls say, our assessment of Hickenlooper's potential challengers hasn't changed.

With that said, no one can disagree that this year's epic political battles have taken their toll on Gov. Hickenlooper's once-stratospheric popularity. According to Quinnipiac, the General Assembly is fully underwater in terms of favorability, with 49% disapproving of their performance to 36% in favor. What these numbers demonstrate is the need for Democrats to get serious about defending and validating the ambitious legislative agenda passed into law this year. Democrats cannot assume that conviction of being on the long-term "right side of history," which powered them through the session, will translate into electoral success without the effort required to defend and educate the public about what they accomplished. They haven't done that, and arguably here is the result.

In case you didn't already know this, you can't take anything for granted in politics.