As the Colorado Independent's John Tomasic reports, two new Obamascare ads from big-ticket conservative activist group Americans for Prosperity are freshly running in Colorado–and the organization's highly dubious track record for accuracy appears little improved:
The words in the ad are chosen carefully. Health care costs had been on the rise for decades, which was the main motivation driving health care wonks on the right and left to design the policies that became the Affordable Care Act. In fact, costs have leveled off recently. FactCheck.org in February summarized the debate over why the costs are leveling and said it was just too early to tell how the Affordable Care Act will affect costs in the future…
AFP zeros in on Udall over the issue of policy cancellations.
“335,000 Coloradans received a cancellation notice,” says the narrator. “What did Mark Udall do? He tried to hide it. Udall pressured state officials to report fewer policy cancellations to make Obamacare look better.”
As our readers know, this is not even close to accurate–but it summarizes the Republican deception in the flap last winter over supposed policy "cancellations." The fact is, as we've discussed repeatedly, over 90% of those "cancellations" were in fact renewal notices. Udall's inquiry with the state sought to establish that, and the state's commissioner of insurance Marguerite Salazar said "the Senator’s efforts were useful" in getting the facts right. We now know that not only did these hundreds of thousands of policyholders remain insured, but the rate of uninsured in Colorado has plunged from 17% of the population to only 11%.
Like we said about Karl Rove's Obamascare ad a few days ago, these ads are too late. The dire predictions didn't materialize. The public can see that with their own eyes. Too many thousands of Coloradans have Obamacare success stories to tell now, not horror stories.
But as the Independent's Tomasic continues, that isn't even slowing down AFP:
The other anti-Obamacare ad released by AFP today targets three Democratic state senators from swing Jefferson County — Cheri Jahn, Andy Kerr and Jeanne Nicholson. Democrats enjoy a mere one-seat majority in the Senate and Republicans are gunning to flip the balance.
The ad says the lawmakers “made Obamacare worse” in Colorado by approving the establishment of the Connect for Health state insurance exchange marketplace.
This second AFP ad (above), targeting Colorado Democratic Sens. Cheri Jahn, Andy Kerr, and Jeanne Nicholson, is nothing short of ridiculous for anyone who knows the story of Colorado's bipartisan-created health insurance marketplace. By every objective measure, the Colorado health insurance marketplace has performed much better than either the federal exchange or the exchanges in most other states, not worse. Just today, a study from the Urban Institute says that the Colorado exchange is highly competitive and offers consumers low premiums. Although Colorado's exchange website had some startup issues, they were resolved far quicker than the federal exchange's infamous chronic breakdowns. It is demonstrably a false statement that Colorado's health insurance exchange "made Obamacare worse"–as Republican sponsors of the exchange like Rep. Amy Stephens are more than happy to tell you, our exchange made Obamacare better.
Bottom line: Americans for Prosperity has released so many false ads about Obamacare–and don't take our word for it, consult any fact-checker you trust–that it's clear at this point the truth is simply not a priority for this organization. That sounds like a typical campaign-season accusation, but it's true in this case beyond the usual back-and-forth. This is an organization spending literally millions of dollars to spread messages that are demonstrably, objectively not true. They are doing it because they know more people will see their ads than will see the fact-check stories disproving them.
In ways that should merit bipartisan outrage, this group sums up what's wrong with politics in America today.
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I wonder if Colorado's law against false statements in political ads could snare the one against the state senators? This total bullshit should not be allowed to stay on the air. Is there nothing that can be done?
I want my right to pre-existing conditions back ! I want my right to be refused healthcare !
I am outraged !
God I am so sick of this shit…
Great Ads.
Udall has spent about $3 million and his fellow leftist loons another $3 million or so on his behalf since mid-May.
The results? He is going backwards in the polls.
Why? Independant Republican ads that are hitting home.
Obamacare is really not very popular.
They just don't get it.
Yup, just as P.T. Barum disciple Karl Rove believes — There's a sucker born every minute.
GOP rule number two: Fool enough of the people until after the next election and then we can really grab the goodies we missed last time!
Really good to know how low esteem you hold the truth
Take full notice of how our trolls "Dummer and Dummerer" do not at any time claim the ads aren't brimming wiith bald-faced lies, but only express unbridled glee at what they falsely perceive as the Koch/Rove cabal's lie-filled ads' "effectiveness" in terms of deceiving and misleading voters.
This, ladeis and gentelmen of honor, intelligence and conscience, is the evil that GOTP men (and women) do. It is right there, on full display, waiting for the electorate to take notice.
That's something they never address because they know they're lies and don't care. Fortunately I'm seeing plenty of pro-Udall and anti-Gardner ads, too. And I'd like to know what AC bases the Udall going backwards thing on at this point. They don't link to any new polls.
Says the the dunce in the GOP house of carnival mirrors.
It is YOU who does not "get it." But you will, very politically painfully, in short order.
Cory Gardner is in no way going to be a US Senator. I'm happy with that. Carry on with the lies though, as depressing as they may be.
Only loons and extremists are on the right, not only do you have a minority problem but a women problem as well. You'll find out in November. And not going backwards in the polls. Go check out pollster, it may be close but he will pull it off. How are these ads good if they are lies?
AC says the ads are good even if they are lies because he is a FUCKING SHIT LIAR.
AC says the ads are good even if they are lies just as Goebbels used to do
Exactly. And saying so doesn't break the Nazi reference rule if it's true with no hyperbole and it is. Is it for an equally evil purpose? No. Is it the same attitude toward what works coupled with the same disdain for what's true? Completely.
In bizarro GOTP World, these are not seen as "lies," but only as means to an end – and the GOTP's "ends" always justify their lying, cowardly "means, at least in their diseased little power-mad minds. Think Goebbels, Kim Jong Il, Lee Atwater, Osama bin Laden. Yes, the lies and treachery of today's GOTP reach a similarly heinous level, if not necessarily all of their vile actions thus far…
Winning is all that counts to these evil-doers — winning so they can further destroy government at all levels, and our nation as a whole.
don't forget, "some people are saying" and "some people think"
I'm sad to say AC is right. Udall is falling behind as this tracking chart from Real Clear Politics clearly shows:
Udall is definitely dropping like Willie E Coyote off of a cliff.
In the real world people are just expecting ACA to be cancelled in 2017 when 30000000 are signed up to it? What kind of business climate do we expect to have when major programs just come and go after each election? Has there ever been a program the size of the ACA that has ever been canceled??
Ummm…. no.
Interesting. When Quinnipiac polled registered voters over a month ago, Gardner was up by 2% but when CBS News polled likely voters 3 weeks ago, Udall was up by 4%.
I thought Dems did better when all registered voters were polled but Repubs did better when you just look at likely voters…..Maybe that Brain Trust of AC, Moderanus, and AFP can spin that one.
POLL CHART
2014 Colorado Senate: Gardner vs. Udall
Currently tracking 17 polls from 13 pollsters
Updated 17 days ago
Election on November 4, 2014
This chart combines the latest opinion polls using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.
May2013JuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.2014Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.020406080100
HuffPost Model Estimate
CONFIDENCE OF LEAD The probability that Udall leads Gardner is 69.1%.
INDIVIDUAL POLL RESULT
ESTIMATE WITH 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Okey doke. Here's what that data from Huffpost looks like if you chart it at the same scale & timeframe as RCP's:
You'll note that Gardner's 2 point high occurred only twice on those charts, the last time a month ago. There are no polling figures in this model since July 24, one of which has Udall ahead by 4 the other by one. So, no, AC can't say right now that Udall's lead is continuing to shrink. We'd need some new, more recent numbers. Hang in there Pcat. I think it's going to be OK.
Please note this is a reply to your charts from RCP, Pcat. Hadn't scrolled down to Huffpost polling numbers which also don't show recent continuing shrinkage. Like I said. I think it's going to be OK.
My timeline comparison ws May 15.
On May 15 Udall was up 2.3% in RCP and up 1.6% in Huff Post.
On Aug 15 Udall is up 1.6% in RCP and 1.2% in Huff Post.
No polling has shown up in last month.
Spent 3 Million, others on his behalf another 3 million, went backwards.
But, but, if you ignore all the context, and all the other facts, and any rational conclusion that can be drawn from them, my narrow. meaningless interpretation is totally plausible!
To quote Val Kilmer's Doc Holliday, "You're no daisy. You're no daisy at all."
Wow! look at those significant trend confirming numbers! Pathetic, AC.
You are a liar, a coward and a fraud, and you dwell in an echo chamber of delusion. You will lose.
You know, asshole, there was once a time that I was naive and believed you and the rest of your lying GOPer fucks were just opposed to the ACA for some kind of misperceived political advantage . . .
. . . but I've come to now realize that you, and the rest of this country's dirty kochsuckers, really are opposed to the ACA because you don't want the middle and lower classes of this nation to have healthcare. Period.
I don't know what advantage you all see in people dying and in misery, except that your ilk just must enjoy it?
And BTW there a significant chunk of people who oppose Obamacare because it doesn't go far enough. So you take those people out the people who really oppose Obamacare is under 50%.
And I don't think the folks who believe Obamacare doesn't go far enough will turn out to vote for A.C.'s favorite candidates.
All I see in mail is "Gardner is a creep." Howzabout the Good Senator standing up for some solid D issues and sticking with them once he's relected? I know that's radical advice for CO, but it'd be nice to see if it works.
Zap, I agree. We do voters a disservice when we imagine that negatives are the only motivators to vote. People are sick of negatives, and they tune them out.
And it's a 2-edged sword – people also tune out the negatives Udall puts out about Gardner.
Your lips to God's ears. Unfortunately, he's to busy being swayed by negative ads.
http://www.apa.org/monitor/2012/04/advertising.aspx