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September 11, 2014 02:08 PM UTC

SurveyUSA/Denver Post: Udall 46%, Gardner 42%

  • 16 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.

New polling out today from SurveyUSA conducted for the Denver Post shows incumbent Sen. Mark Udall with a steady four-point lead over GOP challenger Cory Gardner. Lynn Bartels reports:

U.S. Sen. Mark Udall leads Republican challenger Cory Gardner by 4 percentage points in a new Denver Post poll that shows the Democratic incumbent is ahead among unaffiliated and female voters…

The race "could go either way" at this point, according to SurveyUSA, which conducted the poll this week for The Post. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Udall received 46 percent support to Gardner's 42 percent in their high-stakes, high-dollar race that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate after the Nov. 4 election.

The polling memo isn't available either at the Denver Post or SurveyUSA yet, but we'll provide a link once we see it. Udall's principal strength in this poll is no surprise, reports the Post, leading with women voters by some 13 points over Gardner. The poll indicates a much smaller lead for Udall among Hispanic voters, only showing him up by two points–a number we suspect is lowballed in Gardner's favor, or at least will be once the dust settles from President Barack Obama's recent announcement that no executive action on immigration would occur before the election. We tend to agree with analysis that suggests Obama's announcement, while upsetting to Hispanic voters, isn't enough to drive them into the arms of the GOP.

Bottom line: while nobody should get comfortable, this poll underscores a reassuring trend for Democrats in this marquee race.

We're headed down the stretch, and Mark Udall is holding his own.

Comments

16 thoughts on “SurveyUSA/Denver Post: Udall 46%, Gardner 42%

  1. This is excellent to see. Gardner's lies aren't working, Udall is staying above water.

    Excellent.

    BTW, Pols, the site is running much better now. It's been basically down since this morning. Damn hackers…

      1. Well, not exactly. "Recent Comments" are back for me but now when I click on "My Comments" I don't even get an empty "My Comments" page. I get sent  to a blank page, not even an error message, and have to sign on again.  If anyone directed a question or pointed comment to me and I'm not answering it's because I can't get "My Comments" and haven't done  a search of all the more recent recent threads. I'm not ignoring you on purpose. If Piss Ant has responded to any of my recent comments, ESAD ought to take care of whatever he said.

  2. Seconded, Jeffco. And those Rove and Koch dirty-money ads against Senator Udall are some of the stupidest, most inept attempts at false demonization I've ever seen. I've witnesed numerous apolitical non-partisans laugh out loud at them because they're so cheesy, childishly transparent and poorly proudced. As one put it, "that's so early 2000s."

    1. Perhaps those are the only ads they can run with their money.

      Cory Gardner has NOTHING on his record to appeal any but the ultra-right voter.  His own advertising efforts have been dedicated to projecting a totally distorted picture of who he really is, and what he really stands for.  Why?  Because he knows he is not in sync with the majority of Coloradoans.   His campaign is dedicated to tricking enough voters to fall for this made-up-persona. 

  3. By the way, something may stink in this poll.

    IIUC, it shows Udall leading Con Man by only 2% among hispanics — what a pantload that is! Not possible, no matter what spinning distortions and shameless lies our Koch trolls will try to push shortly. CO hispanics — like Dems in general — are often notoriously underpolled in CO, and I suspect this is another example of that.

    Still, the top line is looking good for Senator Udall!

      1. Not so sure. CO polling has gained notoriety over the last few cycles for underpolling Dems in general and hispanics in particular. That's why so many polls indicated incorrectly that Buck would handily beat Seantor Bennet, and that Romney would best Obama.

        1. those points are valid, dp, based on general results.  But when you go off because the resilts in any subset are not to your liking, you ignore reality.  If a poll has 600 people, it may have a margin of error of 5 percent.  But if only 20 pct are hispanic, then that is just 120 people and margin of errpr there would be much higher.  Same for seniors, etc in general subsets aren't reliable and often vary far more from poll to poll than the overall results of those same polls.   

          and I dont think any legigimate poll predicted buck over bennet in the closing days.   polls are a still photo of a moving target, not propocies of things to come.  I agree, btw than hispanics are sigificantly underreped in many polls.   But that would affect results, not a given subset.  in other words a poll underrepresenting latinos should still show 60/40 to Udall — if that were the case —  while underestimating the contribuyion of that vote to Udall victory.  

          These overall results are reasonable and while the latino subset should be stronger, it is so small it is vulable to sample size errors.  So go back to worrying about  better things.  fyi. I once spent a lot of your tax dollars on a govt grant at northwestern studying scientic polling techniques.

           

          1. Of course, I defer to your polling wisdom and experience, Voyager.

            But a lead of just 2 points for any statewide Dem candidate among hispanics will continue to sound very "Fox Newsy" to me, as in completely divorced from reality.

  4. My 30ish, very smart daughter thinks Gardner is CREEPY.  I'm guessing she won't be voting for him.  Seriously, with many of these young women all you need to say is "personhood".  Udall may not be as slick tallking as Gardner, but he is sincere, cares about Colorado, and doesn't look like he's been polished up with snake oil like Gardner does. Guys like Gardner make you want to count the silver after he leaves. 

    1. Miss Jane, I'd say your daughter is a very intelligent person and an astute judge of (the lack of) character!

      And you're spot-on about Con Man's slick, smarmy, used-car-salesman persona.

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